The Chargers have invented ways to lose this season, but I think they are in a good spot as a home underdog Thursday night. Trevor Siemian will start for the Broncos, but the quarterback could still be ailing from the shoulder injury that kept him sidelined last week. Protection could be an issue as Denver yielded six sacks in its loss to Atlanta last week. There’s little doubt San Diego coach Mike McCoy’s job could be in jeopardy with another defeat, but I think his team will give an inspired performance in a potentially flat spot for the Broncos.

As I noted in playing the Under, I'm not a believer in Denver's offense and certainly not with a banged-up quarterback. At the key number of 3, I'm taking the points with a San Diego team that plays everyone close.

I think Denver showed its true offensive identity last week when it got manhandled on both sides of the ball by Atlanta. Trevor Siemian's shoulder injury is another factor leading me to look Under. Not to mention the Broncos still play outstanding defense. This has the feel of a low-scoring, 17-14 type of game.

With Trevor Siemian on track to play, Denver should be able to bounce back from their first loss of the season and handily beat the Chargers. Philip Rivers has lost key players from the offense this year, and the effect of those missing pieces is compounded against one of the NFL’s best defenses. The Broncos O-line was ravaged by the Falcons, but that was largely due to the absence of Donald Stephenson, who is practicing in full this week. A healthier line will help slow a Bosa-boosted San Diego pass rush, and the Broncos defense can take over in the second half.

With Trevor Siemian (shoulder) now expected to start Thursday, I'm grabbing this before it hits 3. The Falcons hurt Denver with their dynamic running backs catching passes out of the backfield, but that's not a strength of the Chargers with Danny Woodhead out. Look for the Broncos to win their fifth straight over San Diego and cover this modest number.