The Bills opened at -2.5 and have been bet down to +1 thanks to 75 percent of spread tickets on the Jets. This is a very interesting matchup between defensive-minded teams. It's somewhat difficult to project how Matt Forte will impact this Jets team at his age, but I've done my best and I have the Jets as the better team by 1.5 points at a neutral site. Fortunately this game isn't a neutral environment and the Bills have a huge homefield edge. My projection model assigns a home field advantage point value to each team and the Bills are the 4th-highest at 3.5. My simulations have this game at 21-19 Buffalo, making the Bills a nice value bet at +1.

Pressure busts pipes. This will be a battle between aggressive, defensive-minded teams that can both run the ball. The biggest X-factor will be QB play. Who do you trust more? For quick passing and converting third downs, I'll side with Tyrod Taylor over Ryan Fitzpatrick. I like Taylor's mobility in a pressure situation. For Fitz, same song, different beat.

The Bills' O-line, minus starting LT Cordy Glenn, is in for a long night against perhaps the league's top D-Line, which welcomes back Sheldon Richardson from suspension. Under pressure last week, Tyrod Taylor completed 25 percent of his throws. Now he faces a Jets' D that sacked Andy Dalton seven times. I know Ryan Fitzpatrick is 1-8 against Rex Ryan; Thursday is the night Fitz gets a little redemption for last year's Week 17 debacle.

Rex Ryan twice beating his former team was a cute story last year for the Bills, who downed the Jets by identical 22-17 scores. Holding New York out of the playoffs was the season highlight in another 8-8 season for Buffalo. Both clubs are coming off Week 1 losses, as the Bills managed just 160 yards of offense in a 13-7 loss to Baltimore. The Jets fell 23-22 to the Bengals on a last-minute field goal. I think because of the recent history, Buffalo will be a popular play, but the value side lies with a Jets team that appears to be the stronger club.