The last five meetings, and eight of the past 10, have gone Over after Monday's 14-6 Mariners win. I'm looking for the trend to continue Tuesday. Rangers starter Martin Perez owns a 6.23 ERA on the road, with batters hitting .289 against him. Mariners starter James Paxton is coming back from a torn fingernail and I expect him to struggle against a Texas lineup that's hitting .318 against him over two starts this season.

Neither of the starting pitchers in this matchup are in great form, although Martin Perez did blank the Mariners for six innings in the last meeting, which resulted in a 14-1 rout by the Rangers last Wednesday. Perez surrendered six runs in each of his previous two starts before that for Texas, and Seattle's James Paxton has seen 28 runs scored combined over the last two games he has started. My simulations show this game going Over the total 68 percent of the time.