MLB Win Totals: High on Yankees, Low on White Sox

Former Vegas bookmaker Micah Roberts, who earlier released four win total plays, is back with his final two recommendations. Here he tells you how to bet the Yankees and White Sox.

 




A few days back I released four strong plays on MLB win totals.

Those were the teams that jumped out when I first saw the numbers posted by the Atlantis Casino Resort in Reno -- traditionally the first sportsbook to release win totals.

 

Now, having had more time to digest the Over/Unders, I'm back with two additional plays I feel good about.

NEW YORK YANKEES OVER 83.5 WINS

The Yankees finished only five games behind Wild Card-bound Baltimore and Toronto, and it's within the AL East that New York is going to have to take care of business if it wants to best last year's 84-78 record.

They went 9-10 against Baltimore, 8-11 against Boston and 7-12 against Toronto. That's nine games under .500 and the difference between first and fourth-place.

The Yankees also finished nine games below .500 on the road.

But there's plenty to suggest the Yankees will be just as good or better in 2017, which would mean cashing a season win total ticket on the Over 83.5.

CBS SPORTS: JONAH KERI'S TOP WIN TOTAL PLAYS

They only got 53 games out of catching phenom Gary Sanchez, but he crushed 20 home runs. How many bombs can he hit during an entire season?

They went 40-34 in the second-half, most of it without relievers Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman. They resigned Chapman during the off-season.

The big negative is starting pitching. Their ace, Masahiro Tanaka, got 31 starts, which was the most he's had in three seasons in the Bronx.

He went 14-4 with a 3.07 ERA over 199.2 innings, and the Yankees went 20-11 behind him.

After that, there's a major dropoff with fingers crossed that Michael Pineda (6-12, 4.82 ERA) and C.C. Sabathia (9-12, 3.91) can simply be .500 pitchers. The hope is that Luis Severino (3-8, 5.83), Chad Green (2-4, 4.73) or Luis Cessa (4-4, 4.35) can stand out during spring and claim the Nos. 4 and 5 slots.

Offensively, this team looks stout.

They signed Matt Holiday (20 HR) and Chris Carter (41 HR), and the prospects ready to contribute right away remind me some of the 1995 prospects. That's when the Yanks launched a run of postseason play in 17 of 18 years.

They key for the Yankees will be a good start.

Last year they started 8-14 and were in a constant uphill climb until Sanchez infused some energy, sparking a 17-11 August.

If they can be somewhat competitive in the first half, GM Brian Cashman will be a buyer at the trade deadline for a starter or two instead of a seller like he was in 2016.

The Yankees also get a bonus within the division with David Ortiz retiring and Edwin Encarnacion leaving Toronto for Cleveland.

One big stat to look at is the Yankees went 24-12 in one-run games. That's an area that can easily flip the other way from year to year.

However, I do like the scenario of the Yankees staying close to the top of the AL East and making a strong run at the playoffs, which means we cash our Over ticket.

Pick: Over 83.5

CHICAGO WHITE SOX 73.5 WINS

Chris Sale is in Boston and Adam Eaton is in Washington. Those were the two best players on a White Sox squad that went 78-84 last year. Their combined WAR was 11.1.

Todd Frazier (40 HR), Jose Quintana (13-12, 3.20 ERA) and David Robertson (37 SV) are still on the roster, but where I see them falling short is within the division again with Kansas City, Detroit and Cleveland all being better.

Chicago went a combined 20-37 against those three last season.

I also don't see the Sox spending the first 42 days of the season in first place, like they did last year when Sale won his first nine starts.

They started 23-10 and finished 55-74, and I think the finishing record of last season is closer to who they really are in 2017.

Pick: Under 73.5

MLB WIN TOTALS, ATLANTIS CASINO RESORT, RENO

AL EAST
Red Sox 90.5
Blue Jays 86.5
Orioles 84.5
Yankees 83.5
Rays 75.5

AL CENTRAL
Indians 92.5
Tigers 85.5
Royals 80.5
White Sox 73.5
Twins 70.5

AL WEST
Astros 87.5
Rangers 86.5
Mariners 85.5
Angels 76.5
Athletics 66.5

NL EAST
Nationals 90.5
Mets 89.5
Marlins 77.5
Phillies 72.5
Braves 71.5

NL CENTRAL
Cubs 95.5
Cardinals 87.5
Pirates 85.5
Reds 73.5
Brewers 72.5

NL WEST
Dodgers 91.5
Giants 87.5
Rockies 79.5
Diamondbacks 78.5
Padres 64.5