It's finally Draft Day, which means we're only hours from everyone's mock draft being proven wrong and the 32 selections going in a number of directions that were impossible to predict. However, that doesn't mean we ever stop trying. I've soaked up all the latest buzz and mock draft projections as of Thursday morning to give you my best prediction on how Round 1 will unfold.

Caleb Williams is locked in at the top, and I'm going to move toward the consensus at No. 2 and slot Jayden Daniels in. However, my first curveball of the draft comes at No. 3, where I have the Patriots pulling a Sonny Weaver and dealing the pick to the Vikings for not one, not two, but three first-round picks (No. 11, 23 and a 2025 first-rounder).

Why am I doing this when the Patriots are supposedly happy to move forward with either of Daniels or Drake Maye? I believe the Patriots' positioning in what they've let leak is to drive up the price on No. 3, letting the Giants and Vikings feel like it's not a bluff and that if they want Maye, they'll have to deliver an enormous offer to get to the third pick. I also believe there's a chance they prefer McCarthy to Maye anyway and want to pick up as much draft capital as possible before selecting the Michigan product.

But I'm also not married to the idea that they take a QB in this draft. Yes, the adage is that if you need a QB, you take one when you can because who knows when you'll be picking that high again. However, this offense is at the start of a rebuild, and this franchise has just turned the page on the greatest coach of all time. The expectations can't be to compete immediately, especially by throwing either Maye and McCarthy into an incomplete offense that needs major help on the O-line and at receiver. The Texans managed to do so but did it by absolutely nailing their QB selection, having a strong group of weapons and a solid offensive line around him and having enough draft capital to move back up for the best defensive player in the draft as well, not to mention by playing in a much more wide-open division ripe for the taking.

Another hint the Patriots aren't dead set on taking a QB at No. 3: the Patriots brought Michael Penix Jr. in for a predraft visit late in the process, which only makes sense if the team is entertaining a trade down. There has been buzz that Penix could go to the Raiders at No. 13, but I believe the Patriots see him as a potential late first-round option with the second pick they're acquiring in this deal if they don't get McCarthy at No. 11. And if they end up with neither, then Bo Nix is an option in the second round.

If that doesn't work out (either he gets sniped as well or he doesn't look like a franchise QB after a year of development), the Patriots regroup next year with their own likely high first-round pick and the Vikings' first-round pick. With no official general manager in place and Jonathan Kraft a part of the decision-making process with de facto GM Eliot Wolf, this might actually end up being the best scenario as the Patriots are able to potentially run a full GM search and/or build a more clearly-defined front office structure, and then drop a potential franchise QB into a much stronger young core on the roster.

All this speculation could certainly look silly in eight hours or so, but my guess is that the Patriots get the Vikings to cave and offer three first-round picks to get their guy, and it ends up being an offer the Krafts can't refuse.

Check out my full first-round projection, including eight other trades, to see which path the Patriots end up taking over the remaining 29 picks.

Who winds up with J.J. McCarthy if the Vikings are able to get Drake Maye? And which three teams trade from Round 2 into Thursday to make selections in the back half of the first round? ... Join SportsLine right now to see the final 2024 NFL Mock Draft from SportsLine's No. 1 NFL expert!