Nebraska is forecasted to be the No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament, and UCLA is looking to be a 9th seed in the South. It's Big Ten basketball in Los Angeles, and Nebraska has been there all weekend, beating USC 82-67 Saturday as a 4-point favorite, and now they ride a three-game win streak. UCLA comes off a loss at Minnesota, and they've lost three of their past five games. Nebraska has been playing college basketball at an elite level and sits tied for second in the Big Ten at 14-4. Overall, Nebraska is 25-4. Nebraska should probably be a 4-point favorite here as well. Nebraska to cover.
The Spurs had an 11-game winning streak going until they faced the Knicks on Sunday at MSG. The Spurs shot only 42% from the field and 26% from 3-point range, while turning the ball over 22 times. It may have been one of the un-Spurs-like moments of the year. The Spurs are second in the West and look like the best team in basketball. They win on the road almost as impressively as their 21-6 home record. This is their first meeting with the 76ers this season after beating them 128-120 last March. Spurs to cover. Spurs start up another winning streak tonight and cover. Let's say the Spurs win by 10 or more.
UNC-Wilmington is in first place by half a game in the Colonial Athletic Association at 25-5, while Elon sits 11th at 14-16. This is one where I made the spread 9.5, and the send out was 5, giving me 4.5 points of value with the side I like. Wilmington beat Elon 65-54 on February 12th, covering the 8.5 spread. Wilmington comes off a loss on Sunday to College of Charleston as a 5.5-point favorite, which ended a six-game winning streak. Elon has lost its last three and seven of its last eight, covering only twice in that span. The regular season ends today for both teams. Wilmington to cover.
The Charlotte Hornets have won and covered their last four games, and they have taken over as the NBA's best cover team at 38-23 ATS. The Hornets are almost .500 at 30-31, but they're 10th in the standings, which would be a playoff berth right now. They're moving up fast. They're only three wins from the 76ers, who are currently the sixth seed. Mavericks rookie Cooper Flagg is listed as day-to-day, but he hasn't played in 3 weeks. The Hornets won their last four by at least 16 points and have covered their last seven games. The Hornets have something groovin' right now, cover tonight.
It looks like Michigan State is going to be a number four seed in the NCAA tournament while Indiana needs some help to get in. Even though Indiana is on a three-game losing streak, they're figured to be one of the last teams in. And that's even with the home loss to Northwestern in their last game. Now it's a must-win game for them against Michigan State who they lost to 81-60 on January 13th. Michigan State just won at Purdue and is riding a three-game win streak. They've only lost four games in the Big Ten this season. It's a big challenge for Indiana, but my money is on Michigan State.
Miami-Ohio is 28-0 on the season and only ranked 21st, while four teams ranked ahead of them have seven losses. Not many in the media are giving Miami the respect it deserves. But I give them respect for covering 19 games this season, covering their last five, and also being the No. 1 shooting team in the nation, hitting 52.9%. They also shoot 39.5% from three-point range, which ranks 7th nationally. I like them tonight at Western Michigan to win and cover. They're 12-0 in road games this year. Miami-Ohio to cover.
The Lakers can't beat the good teams, but they feast on the bad teams. Even though the Suns have a winning record on the season, the current state of the team says they're bad. They’ve lost six of their last eight. Once the best covering team in the NBA, they’ve failed to cover seven times in their last eight games. The Lakers have lost four of their last six, but those were all to good teams on a home stand. The Lakers owe the Suns some payback after losing to them 132-108, without Luke Doncic, on December 23rd. Who knows who's going to play for the Suns tonight, but it's a good bet it's not going to be Devin Booker. Lakers to cover.
I'm getting points with Tennessee State (19-9) when they have a better record than Southeast Missouri (18-11), they're 8-7 in away games this season, and they’re the better shooting team. They lost an early home conference game to the Redhawks in December as a 1.5-point underdog. Tennessee State has won seven of its last nine ball games and averages 81.1 points per game. The winner of this game will be tied with Morehead State for the lead in the Ohio Valley Conference. Tennessee State is the better team and covers tonight.
It's a battle between the bottoms in the Summit League with Denver (15-15) and Oral Roberts University (7-22). I like Denver in this spot because I see five points of value for the road team. The spread should be at least eight. Denver has been covering all season, going 18-9 ATS, and they've gone over in 19 games. Denver has also won and covered the last three meetings with ORU. They shoot 48.2% from the field and 38.5% from 3-point range while also making their free throws. Oral Roberts shoots 41.7% from the field. I'm laying the points with Denver on the road.
The Spurs have won and covered the last four meetings with the Nets. Currently, they have won 10 straight games, but they played last night at Toronto and didn't cover -6. The Spurs look like the best team in the West. They're playing together as a team with everyone clicking. The balls are bouncing their way. And the team they're playing, the Nets, is the complete opposite of the Spurs, sitting 15-42 on the season and losing large in their last five games. The Nets blew a big lead on Sunday at Atlanta, and while they scored 17 points in the fourth quarter, it seemed like they didn't score for the final 6 minutes of the game. A Nets brain freeze moment. Spurs cover.
Chattanooga is only 6-10 in the Southern Conference, with Greensboro right above them, sitting at 8-8, but I like the Moccasins at home tonight. I like them mostly because of what they did last Thursday at Mercer, as a 9.5-point underdog, and they won 94-90. They shot better than they had all season from the field, three-point range, and the free-throw line, and only turned the ball over five times. Then they won their next game at The Citadel, and now they get Greensboro, which has lost two in a row. Chattanooga has turned the corner, shooting 61% in its last two games, and the season's almost over. They get the job done tonight and cover.
The Celtics have got a good thing going at 38-19 on the season, and they've won and covered four straight games. They've been doing it by controlling the pace, keeping games under the total. They've stayed under 36 times this season. The Nuggets have been in a free fall, losing 6 of their last 9 games, but the Nuggets aren’t going to lay down playing the Celtics' style. Denver is going to play Nuggets-style basketball, which is fast and gets over the total like they have the last three games and 37 times this season. Celtics may win or cover, but I think the game goes over.
Grand Canyon is a new kid on the block in the Mountain West, but they're 5th in the conference at 17-10, and UNLV (14-13) is 6th. I don't know if UNLV is going to win or cover, but I do think we have an opportunity here with the total that I made 165, and the sendout was 154, and it's down to 151. UNLV has been a great over team this year at 17-9. They've gone over the total in seven straight games. The Rebels are trying to be the Runnin’ Rebels again. UNLV has won four of its last five games, which includes an 80-78 win over Grand Canyon in Las Vegas on February 10th. Just the over.
Navy has a four-game lead in the Patriot League, and they've covered 18 games on the season, which ranks sixth-best. Navy is 9-4 in away games, and they've covered five straight against Loyola-Maryland. Loyola is only 11-18 this season. Navy has won its last 11 ball games in a row while covering the last 10. Navy only allows 63.6 points per game, which ranks third nationally. Navy to cover.
The Suns strategy Sunday against the Blazers was to slow the game down to a drip, and the Blazers came away with a 92-77 win. The Suns were without their three best players, and the strategy didn't work as they shot 36% from the floor and had 19 turnovers. That strategy halted the Blazers streak of eight straight games over the total. They're at home tonight against the Timberwolves, and I expect that fast pace to continue with the Timberwolves, who have gone over three of their last four ball games. They've also gone over the last two meetings, the last being February 11th in Minnesota. This game gets over.