Micah's Picks (3 Live)
The Royals have stayed under the total in 58% of their games, and they have great under weather in Seattle tonight at 70° with winds blowing in from left field at 8 mph with only 7% chance of rain. Cole Ragans looked like his 2025 self in his last start, allowing one run and striking out 11 over six innings against the Angels. Bryan Woo is a much better pitcher at home, and in two starts this year, he has a 2.77 ERA and 15 strikeouts. Under is the play.
It's expected to be 60° at Fenway Park tonight with winds blowing out to right field at 5.8 mph and no chance of rain. This is nice over weather, and the Astros are the best over team in baseball at 23-9. They produce a total of 11.31 runs per game. The Astros have lost Mike Burrows' last four starts, with him allowing a total of 15 runs. Jake Bennett is expected to make his MLB debut after being called up from Triple-A Worcester on Tuesday. The total number is going to keep crawling up as long as the Astros keep going over, but it hasn't gone up high enough yet. Just the over.
Zac Gallen has stayed under the total in his last five starts, but this is an Arizona team that puts up 10.2 runs per game, allowing 5.5 runs, and has gone over the total 18 times. The Cubs have gone over 20 times, scoring 5.45 runs per game. But the total sits at 7 because the wind is blowing in at 10 miles per hour. Arizona's bullpen is awful, ranking 25th with an ERA at 5.03, and they've allowed 10 runs or more in four of their last nine games. The bullpen needs some help, and it needs more than backup catcher James McCann pitching in four games this year. Over is the play.
Andrew Abbott is 0-2 this year with a 6.59 ERA, but the Reds have won three of his last four starts because they simply outscore their opponents. Abbott has gone over the total in his last five starts, and most of it is attributed to Abbott. In his first start against Boston, he pitched six innings and allowed no runs, and it looked like he was continuing his fantastic 2025, but it turned for the worse as he's allowed 22 runs in his last five starts. Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen has allowed 21 runs between his last five starts. Over is the play with a slight lean to the Rockies.
Inclement weather forced the postponement of Wednesday's game in Baltimore, but they should get two games in Thursday, with no chance of rain at 63° and winds blowing across and out to right field at 15 mph. The Astros are the top over team in baseball, hitting at 70%, and the game stayed under on Tuesday, with the Orioles winning 5-3. In that game, there was one critical moment, I believe in the 6th, that the Astros blew a chance at getting over when they had runners on second and third with no outs, and then the bases loaded with one out, and they got no runs. Baltimore has gone over the total 18 times, which is 62.1% of their games. Game 1 Over.
We've got a great opportunity for an under in the Tampa Bay at Cleveland game, where it's supposed to be 55° with the wind blowing straight in from center field at 10 miles an hour and a 50% chance of rain. We also got the top two starters from each squad. Drew Rasmussen has been great in his last three starts with Tampa Bay winning all three, and Cleveland has won five straight behind Gavin Williams. The under has happened in the first two games of this series. Under is the play.
The Rays have won six games in a row and go for the sweep at Cleveland on Wednesday afternoon. It's been a battle of pitchers in this series, with the Rays winning two low-scoring games by one run each. A great pitching matchup in this series finale with Drew Rasmussen taking on Gavin Williams, who Cleveland has won his last five starts. But his last start wasn't so good at Toronto as he allowed six runs in six innings. The Rays have won Rasmussen's last three starts, with one of his best outings coming on April 12th in a 5-4 win against the Yankees, when he allowed just one hit and no runs over six innings. The Rays are hot, ride the streak. Rays win.
Yordan Alvarez leads the league in hitting and is second in home runs with 11, but I think the value today is with his teammate, Christian Walker, who has 7 home runs on the year and is just starting to get hot. He comes off back-to-back games against the Yankees hitting a home run, including Sunday, when he went 3-for-4 with 4 RBIs. He’s had a home run in three of his last six games, and I think he'll hit Shane Baz. Walker is a very streaky hitter, and he's in a groove right now, so +490 is very attractive.
The Astros are the No. 1 over team in baseball at 21-8, which is 72.4% of their games. Their success in getting over the total stems from having the worst pitching staff in baseball. Both the starters (5.97 ERA) and relievers (6.31) rank last in the league, and today they have to start one of those relievers, Kai-Wai Teng, as an opener. The Astros have gone over the total in their last three games, including Sunday when they beat the Yankees, 7-4, featuring a home run by Christian Walker with his 7th, who is a live candidate today to hit another one. Astros-Orioles over.
The Timberwolves have won the last three games of this first-round series against the Nuggets to put them in an elimination situation in Game 5 tonight. What I'm looking at here is a total that started at 232.5, and it's been driven down to its lowest total yet at 224. This is a buy-low, sell-high moment for me, and I'm going over the lowest total of the series. I do expect the Nuggets to win by 20 or more, but I'm obviously not so sure because I didn't bet it. This will be a high-scoring game, just the over for me.
I think the Pistons are at a do-or-die point in Game 4, down 2-1 to the Magic. The key for the Pistons' turnaround needs to be Jalen Duren, who's been a non-factor in all three games of this series. The Pistons haven't looked like themselves even with Cade Cunningham back and scoring. I think Duren has a good game today in Orlando and helps the Pistons even the series. If they go down 3-1, the series is likely over for the East's No. 1 seed in the first round of the playoffs. The Pistons were so close in Game 3, closing a huge deficit to take a 1-point lead with less than 3 minutes ago only to lose by 8. Pistons win Game 4.
I'm looking at a situation today in a game where one team is hot, doing all the little things right, and the other team is not. The Mariners have won four games in a row, including their last three on the road in a sweep at St. Louis. The Twins have lost five straight games and nine of their last 10. The Twins are hitting .227 on the year, while the Mariners were hitting below .200 two weeks ago, and they're up to .233. Luis Castillo is on the mound for the Mariners, and they've lost his last two starts, but he's only allowed three earned runs combined. The Twins send out Connor Prielipp, who will make the second start of his career. Mariners win.