Put yourself in Coach Dan Hurley's position. He's seen what's happening in the tournament with Michigan scoring 90 points or more against its opponents. He has to strategize for it, and I think he's going to figure out a way not to play their game. His team allowed an average of 65.1 points per game this season. He should be prepared and ready to execute. Michigan was not covering heading into the Tournament and scored 72 or less against Purdue, Wisconsin, and Ohio State in the Big Ten Tournament. Hold them down; it can be done. Duke beat them 68-63 in February. Hurley carries championships as badges on his sports coat. Michigan under 75.5, and Connecticut also has a chance to win.
Connecticut's path through the NCAA tournament went through the Big Ten Conference with victories over UCLA, Michigan State, and Illinois. Now it's Michigan's turn. In all those instances, they kept the game low scoring, and all three stayed under the total. They also beat Duke along the way. This is when coach Dan Hurley is at his absolute best, and his ego will not allow anything less in prime time. Connecticut plus the points.
Michigan shot 51.1% from the field while holding opponents to 38.4%, which ranks No. 1 in the nation. Michigan has taken its game up a notch, with everybody elevating their play to make them look like they did in November and December, when they were blowing everybody out. That team is back, and they have scored 90 points or more in all four of their tournament games. Consistency. They’ll score at least 80 against Arizona.
I'm looking at the total in the first Final Four game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis between Illinois and Connecticut. The total shows 139.5, while I made the total 134. Illinois scores a lot of points, but they can play slow-down ball as well and have stayed under their last three, making it 22 for the season. Connecticut has stayed under in four of its last six games and 20 overall on the season. The under.
The Phillies have won their last seven games against the Rockies, and they're at Coors Field today for the Rockies home opener. The Rockies got swept at Miami but won two out of three at Toronto in the last series. The Phillies are 3-3 after winning the last two against the Nationals. The key to this bet for me is Aaron Nola pitching in thin air in April and giving up one of those monster innings. He gave up three runs in five innings in his first start against the Rangers, which included giving up two home runs. Michael Lorenzen gave up three runs in 4.1 innings in a loss to the Marlins. The Phillies are 4-1 to the Over. Over the play.
The Giants have struggled to hit the ball this year, averaging only 2.3 runs per game, but they won their first two games in San Diego and scored 9 runs in one of them. I think the situation with the starting pitchers favors the under in this game. We have David Peterson starting for the Mets, who didn't allow any runs in 5.1 innings in his last start against the Pirates, and Robbie Ray makes his second start after losing 3-0 to the Mets in his first start. Under is the play.
The Diamondbacks have beaten the Braves four straight times, the last meeting in June, and they just came off a sweep of the Tigers. After starting the year 0-3, they're now 3-3, and Ryne Nelson is on the mound, and he's an attractive underdog. He's facing Reynaldo Lopez, who won his last start against the Royals as a $1.44 favorite. Nelson lost to the Dodgers in his first start. Arizona to win.
The Crown Tournament is an 8-team, 5-day tournament that features an NIL price pool of $500,000. It tips off with Oklahoma and Colorado in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand Arena. Oklahoma opened as a 5.5-point favorite, and it's up to 9.5 because Colorado lost its three leading scorers to the transfer portal. This is a Buffaloes squad that started 12-3 and finished 17-15. It's been over 2 weeks since the teams last played, but Oklahoma started figuring things out at the end of the year, covering their last seven games, winning six of them. They finished the year 19-15 and were one of the last cuts to miss the NCAA’s. Oklahoma to win by 10 or more.
Michigan is a 7.5-point favorite over Tennessee in the Elite 8 matchup at the United Center in Chicago, with the winner going to the Final Four. Michigan has turned it up a notch since losing the Big Ten championship game to Purdue, and they’ve scored 90 points or more in all three games since. They look like their former selves from November and December when they were destroying teams nightly. Michigan has won and covered the last three meetings with Tennessee. Tennessee has a great story in the tournament, but the fact remains that they lost four out of their last six games before the tournament started. Michigan has the No. 1 defense in the nation, allowing 38.6 shooting. Michigan covers.
Purdue faces Arizona in the Elite 8 in San Jose, and Arizona is up to a 6.5-point favorite in this game. Arizona has won 12 games in a row since it lost its only two games of the year in back-to-back fashion to Texas Tech and Kansas. Arizona went 35-2, covering 22 games. It's a formidable opponent for Purdue to tackle, but I think they can. Purdue has had three meetings with Arizona since 2007 and won all three, the last time in 2023. Purdue has won seven straight games, including beating Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament. Purdue has 19.7 assists per game and is No. 1 in the nation in assist-to-turnover margin. Purdue wins outright.
The Angels started off the season with two wins at Houston, with the Astros not hitting very well, scoring only two runs. Not only is today a good bounce-back spot, but it's a good spot because of the pitcher going for the Angels, Reid Detmers. The Angels lost Detmer's last three starts last year, with him allowing 18 earned runs, and he started this spring off in a similar giving mood. In four spring starts, he gave up seven runs in 11.2 innings, and now he's the starter in Game 3 for the Angels. Cristian Javier is a starter I'm backing today. Astros to win.
The Mavericks and Blazers split this season, but the last game was on December 29th. Things are different now, and the Blazers have a game plan, and they're showing off. The Mavericks have lost their last five games, while the Blazers have won five of their last six, and in their last two games, they put an identical beatdown on the Bucks and the Nets, allowing 99 points each. I think Dallas is going to get one tonight. The Blazers have had one night of rest and are having a blast at 37-37, sitting as the ninth seed in the playoff forecast with eight games to go. Blazers are in playoff form right now and win by 15 or more.
The Tigers won 8-2 against the Padres yesterday behind their Ace and now they bring another Ace to the mound in new Tiger Framber Valdez who had an amazing spring. Valdez had four spring starts for 18.1 innings and only allowed two earned runs for a 0.98 ERA. Valdez is an underdog today. He’s ready for 2026. Tigers to win today against Michael King.
It's Alabama and Michigan playing in the Sweet 16 at the United Center in Chicago, and I think Michigan has caught its second wind. In their first two games of the tournament, they scored 101 points and 95 points, giving everyone visions of their play in November and December when they were putting 100 on everyone. I think the loss to Purdue in the Big Ten championship game gave them a chance to refocus on what Michigan basketball is about. First off, they have the No. 1 defense in the nation, allowing 38.7 shooting, and secondly, they have the No. 6 offense in the nation, shooting 51.1%. Alabama had a puzzling loss to Mississippi in the SEC tournament as an 11.5-point favorite. Michigan covers.
I think the Houston-Illinois total is worth exploring at 140, since I made the number 132. Houston is third in the nation, allowing only 62.2 points per game, and since January 31st, they've gone under 11 times and over only five times. Great defense wins games. Coach Kelvin Sampson has been preaching defense as a means to get back to the Final Four, and this will be a big test for them, but I think they'll succeed and keep this game under.