The Spurs should be up 3-0 over the Knicks if it weren't for two poorly played final minutes of Games 1 and 2 by the Spurs. Knicks lead 2-1. But I think the Young Guns learned a great lesson from the two losses. They finished strong in the 4th quarter in Game 3 and just played their game. No running the clock or playing games by holding the ball. They finished the game strong, and that's a huge lesson learned for a young team. I think the best team in the NBA, with the highest rating, proved that to be true in Game 3. Spurs win Game 4.
Las Vegas got a taste of what A's baseball can be last night when the Brewers won a thrilling 12-inning game 15-14 with so many twists and turns in the plot that it was more like a classic mystery than a baseball game. The wind isn't blowing out as much today as yesterday, but it's still coming at 12 mph out to right-center field at 94° at game time, and no chance of rain. The ballpark will create the runs. Just the over.
The Knicks have won 13 straight and have taken a 2-0 lead on the road in the NBA Finals against the Spurs, giving them a great shot at winning their first title since 1973. But before we crown them as champions, we have to ask ourselves, were the Knicks really that much better than the Spurs? The Knicks trailed in both games until late, and they capitalized on the Spurs' unforced errors. The Knicks shot 42% from the field in Game 2 while the Spurs shot 47%. The one thing the Spurs do have is too much youth. But something has me taking the Spurs again. Refs maybe? They're still the highest-rated team in the NBA, and based on the first two close games, Spurs.
The A's and Brewers scored 14 runs or more combined in four of their last seven games, and I think that's exactly what they're going to do on Monday. Las Vegas is expected to be 90° with the wind blowing at 18 mph straightaway to center field with no chance of rain. These two teams can get 14 or more runs together. Jeffrey Springs started a meeting last season, and the Brewers won 14-1. Over the total is the play.
Spencer Arrighetti has been brilliant this season, but had his first hiccup last week against the Pirates, when he gave up four runs in four innings. The Astros won that game 11-9. In his previous eight starts, he allowed two runs or fewer, with seven of them being one run or less. This season, in nine starts, he's 7-1 with a 1.94 ERA and 46 strikeouts in 51 innings. He's only allowed three home runs all season, and I think he's a steal on Monday against the Angels. Jose Altuve is back at second base for the Astros, and they showed immediate improvement on Friday and Saturday against the A's. Arrighetti should be -150 in this spot, and he's only -118. Astros win.
I don't know what happened to the Diamondbacks bats on Friday night when they scored only 1 run against the Nationals, but the Nats made up for it by scoring 14 runs. They're the best over team in baseball, going 40-21-3, which is 65.6% of their games going over. I expect a better product on the field from the Diamondbacks today, and they should both combine to score over 10 runs. The Nationals average 10.73 runs per game by themselves. The total is 9 today. Just the over.
There's some great over weather in Philadelphia this afternoon with a 92° temperature and the wind blowing out to right-center field at 12 mph with 2% chance of rain. The White Sox are one of the best over teams in baseball, going over 38 times, which is just below the league-leading Nationals. The Sox average 9.35 runs per game, and now the wind is blowing out. The White Sox look like they have postseason goals at 33-30. Just the over here.
We've got a temperature of 85° in St. Louis with the wind blowing out to left field at 11 mph and only a 2% chance of rain. That is over weather. The Reds average 9.33 runs a game and have gone over 37 times this season. The Cardinals have gone over in their last two games. Brady Singer is good for giving up four runs himself. Expect a high-scoring game in St. Louis tonight, just the over.
The Knicks and Spurs scored 200 in Game 1 on Wednesday, while both shot poorly from the field and 3-point range. The Knicks shot 41% and 31% from 3, while the Spurs were off shooting at 36% and 26% from long distance. I do not think the Spurs will have as bad a game shooting, especially from 3-point range. That'll be the difference between going over and staying under. The over favors the Spurs, who were 10-2 to the over before Game 1. This total has dropped from 218 in Game 1 to 214 in Game 2, but is now up to 217.5. I'm on the over.
Game 1 of the NBA Finals was tied after three quarters, and the Knicks proceeded to win the fourth quarter by 10 and the game by 10. The Knicks have now won 12 games in a row despite shooting only 41% from the field. They only had eight turnovers in the game, and I think that's an area that the Spurs need to immediately address: getting more defensive pressure. The Spurs shot only 36% from the field and made just 11-of-43 3-pointers for 26%, along with having 13 turnovers. The Spurs are a young team learning, while the Knicks have a bunch of seasoned veterans. But I think the Spurs are going to have a stronger effort in Game 2 at home. Spurs to cover.
It's overcast in Chicago with a 78% chance of rain at 69°, but the wind is blowing out to left field at 15 mph, which leads me to believe this game is going to get over if they get it in. The Giants have been smashing the ball lately, leading baseball with a .302 batting average in the last 15 days. Cubs right-hander Edward Cabrera makes his first start since May 20th, when he allowed four runs in three innings in a 5-0 loss to the Brewers. The Giants are 15-4 to the over in their last 19. Giants help this game get over.
The Pirates are the third-best hitting team in baseball at .256, and they've gone over the total in their last eight games. They've scored nine or more runs in their last four games, the last two at Houston. Both teams have gone over the total 35 times this season, which is 58.3% of their games. Jared Jones made his first start for the Pirates since 2024 on Friday and allowed five runs in 4.1 innings. Pirates 3B Nick Gonzalez is sixth in baseball hitting .314, but over the last five games, he’s hitting .476 with 10 hits. Over is the play.
The Cubs have only scored six runs during their three-game losing streak, but the weather should help them score more tonight. Wrigley Field is expected to be 83° tonight with 13 mph winds blowing to left field and no chance of precipitation. Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga probably isn't excited about the weather report, as he's allowed 20 runs between his last three starts, and the Cubs have lost his last four starts. The over is the best play tonight.
The Spurs and Knicks were both under teams during the regular season, but their first meeting went way over the total 134-132, and their second meeting in New York stayed under the total 114-89. The highest total was 235.5, and the lowest total was 227.5. Now, we're looking at 218.5 in the NBA Finals, where defense figures to be the main focus initially for both teams. But the Spurs have gone over the total in seven of their last nine games, while the Knicks have gone over in four of their last five. The Knicks haven't played since May 25th, but I think they play at their best, as do the Spurs at home. Over is the play.
The Spurs won the December 31st meeting with the Knicks 134-132, going over the 235.5 total, and we're looking at a Game 1 finals total of 218.5. In that game, the Knicks shot 48% and 42% from 3-point range, making 22 of 52 shots. The Knicks started on fire with 45 points in the first quarter, but ran out of gas in the 4th quarter, as the Spurs outscored them 41-30. Jalen Brunson shot 10 of 24 from the field but five of 12 from 3-point range. All he's got to do in Game 1 is make three 3-pointers to win the bet. I think he does.