Micah's Picks (2 Live)
The Falcons and Buccaneers looked to be vying for a playoff spot to start the season, but over the last 7 weeks, both have been awful. Welcome to Thursday night's Ugly Bowl on Amazon Sports. The Falcons have lost seven of their last eight, with their only win coming against the Saints. The Buccaneers have lost five of their last seven and haven't covered a spread in their last five games. The Falcons' defense was number one at one point in the season, and now they're 14th. The Falcons are also third in sacks, something they've maintained while losing games. The bottom line to me is that the Buccaneers shouldn't be giving anybody more than five points. I'm on the Falcons to get the cover.
Iowa from the Big Ten is 8-1, and Iowa State from the Big 12 is 9-0, and both teams have covered seven of nine games. After beating St. John's by one two weeks ago, Iowa State has gone on a run of beating its next four opponents by 18 points or more. They had their best win in their last game at Purdue, winning 81-58, shooting 58%, and 48% from three. They've beaten Iowa the last 2 years by nine points or more. Iowa State leads the nation in field goal percentage, hitting 54.9% and is No. 3 in three-point shots made at 43.8%. Iowa played its first road game 9 days ago at Michigan State and lost by 19. Iowa State.
Villanova is 7-1 this season, but what I see in their record is a bunch of wins against Pennsylvania schools and losing to their one tough school, BYU. They're facing No. 2 Michigan, which is 8-0 and have won five of the games by 30 points. They won by 40 points in the last two, including a win over Gonzaga, which was favored by 2.5 points. Dusty May has his team ready for battle, and they're averaging 94 points a game and shooting 52.8%. Their best attribute, though, is how the whole team has bought into defense, allowing only 34.6% shooting. Villanova doesn't have Jay Wright anymore, or even Kyle Neptune, who's been replaced this season by Kevin Willard as head coach.
Belmont comes in first in the Missouri Valley at 8-1, and they play at Middle Tennessee from Conference USA, who is 5-3 on the season. I thought we'd be looking at a six-point spread, but it's two or less, and it's a must-play for me today. Belmont has won the last two meetings. The highlights for Belmont are that they shoot 51.5% from the field, and they defend well, holding opponents to 36% which ranks eighth in the nation. Belmont to win.
No. 1 Ohio State is playing No. 2 Indiana in the Big Ten Championship, with both teams 12-0. It's never happened before in the Big Ten. My take is that the Buckeye defense has been taken to unparalleled heights with Matt Patricia running his unique NFL style schemes, which made Ohio State the No. 1 defense, allowing only 203 yards per game and 7.8 points per game. The Buckeyes are the highest-rated team in college football, and yet the point spread never catches up to them. They're 10-1-1 against the spread on the year. Never seen that before. The number is still chasing them, and this week we get to lay less than four points? Yeah, I'm on the Buckeyes.
The Mountain West Conference championship game takes us to Boise, Idaho, and it's going to be 42° with rain and overcast, but the winds are only 4 mph, and that's what's key in this game. UNLV went 10-2 this season, and Boise State went 8-4, but Boise State is the favorite. UNLV has a balanced attack averaging 463 yards a game, which ranks 30th in the nation. The problem they have is their defense, which allows 421 a game. Maddux Madsen is expected to be back at quarterback for Boise and piloted the first meeting this year, winning 56-31. The backup QB lost to San Diego State and Fresno. UNLV's average score this season was 37-28. I like the over despite the rain.
The Cowboys have a serious look to them with the playoffs in sight, but the reality is they're only the 9th seed, when only 7 will come out of the NFC. The Lions would be the 8th seed, and the two teams hook up tonight for the almost-playoff bowl. The Cowboys have won three games in a row, which includes last year's two Super Bowl participants, while the Lions have lost three of their last five, beating only the Giants and Washington since November began. These two teams are headed in opposite directions. The early overnight line on this game was Lions -5.5 after the Thanksgiving loss, and it dropped to -3. I’ll side with the Cowboys here, but I'll bet the over.
Coach Jerrod Calhoun has his Utah State squad with a 7-0 start. Guard Mason Falslev turned down big NIL money to return to Utah State, along with four other Aggies from last year, and a couple of key transfers to provide the positive vibes all around. They feel good about themselves. For one, they're shooting 53.4% from the field, which is the fourth-best number in the nation. They also shoot 39.5% from three-point range. They have a defense that only allows 39% shooting. That's the combination I highlight: over 50, under 40. Utah State should probably be closer to a five-point favorite in this game over South Florida, which has struggled with shooting during its 4-4 start. Utah State to win.
Coach Ben McCollum parlayed his success at Drake last year into taking the job at Iowa, and he's producing as the Hawkeyes are 7-0 while being underrated the whole way, covering the spread in six of the games. The team is shooting 53.1% from the field, good enough for eighth in the nation. But this will be their first test tonight at Michigan State. They'll be an underdog for the first time this year. They've had an easy schedule to start, with their stiffest competition being Mississippi, which they were favored by 4. Michigan State is also 7-0, except they beat three ranked teams: Arkansas, Kentucky, and North Carolina. Their defense only allows 38% shooting, and part of the reason I'm betting Michigan State.
We get to learn a lot more about California Baptist from the WAC at Boulder tonight when they face the Buffaloes, with both teams at 7-0 on the year. Colorado beat Washington in their last game and beat Providence earlier in the year, and they returned 33% of their scoring from last year. California Baptist beat San Diego, Irvine, and Oregon State, and they return all five starters from last year's team, along with two reserves. This team is intact, and the continued continuity is worth betting on today. Colorado shoots 51.6% from the field, but they don't play any defense. Colorado scores 90 points per game, while Cal Baptist allows only 63. I'm on Cal Baptist plus the points.
Jaxson Dart is starting at quarterback for the Giants, and that means he's going to go run for over 54 yards because he's done it in five of his seven games. He might say that he's going to play cool and stay in concussion protocol, but once the game starts, he's not going to be able to change the way he plays. He knows the Giants are successful when he takes things into his own hands. Now they've only won two games with him playing, but he showed he's got the moxie that it's going to take to bring success to the Giants. Dart over 26 rushing yards.
Washington has the second-worst defense in the NFL, allowing 387 yards per game, and they also have the 29th-ranked pass defense, allowing 249.5 yards per game. During the Broncos' eight-game winning streak, Bo Nix has gone over 240 yds five times. Now, against a defense that has holes in it, Nix should do it again with a smaller target of 223. Washington allows an NFL-worst 6.6 yards per play. Bo Nix over 223 yards passing.
Western Michigan from the MAC is 3-4 on the season, and they play at Valparaiso from the Missouri Valley, which is 4-2 this season, but they were predicted to finish last in the conference. Valparaiso came in with 11 brand-new players, and so far, they've proven very green, hitting only 37.3% from the field. That means 356 teams in the country shoot better than Valparaiso. They score 67 points a game and allow 70. This is a game I think will be a grind that Western Michigan can win, but I’m taking the points.