ACC matchup here with California (17-7) traveling across the country to Syracuse (13-11), and that's why Syracuse is the favorite. The home field advantage, coupled with the strain of a West Coast team traveling East. But Cal is better. I made the game Syracuse -1, and I'm looking at 6.5 out there. Syracuse has lost six of its last seven games but has covered their last three, the last two in losses where they were getting double-digits. Cal has won four of their last six games, and on their last road trip they won at Miami while getting 11.5 points. Cal shoots 37.3% from three point range, which ranks 35th nationally. Cal gets the win.
Purdue has beaten Nebraska in five of the last six meetings, with the one Nebraska win coming the last time they played in Lincoln. Purdue has won the last two games after losing three straight, but has not covered in eight of their last nine games. In their last game, they were an 18-point favorite at home against Oregon and couldn't put them away until a minute left in the game. Star Braden Smith had 6 of the 14 turnovers in that game. That's the bottom of the basement, Oregon, which is 1-12 in the Big Ten. Now they go to Nebraska, which started the season 20-0 before losing their first game at Michigan, and then to Illinois. The Boilermakers aren’t hitting on all cylinders.
ACC matchup here with Virginia, who only have 3 losses on the season, visiting Florida State, who is 11-12. I made the game 4.5, and anything over 8 is a play with Florida State, who's making a little mini-run in the conference with three straight wins and covering five of their last six. They're 9-4 at home. Virginia has won four straight, but they were all against teams that were getting 10-points or more, and the Cavaliers haven't covered four of their last five. Florida State to cover.
Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference action with Delaware State at 6-16 visiting North Carolina Central, who is second in the conference (4-2) at 8-11. The reason I'm playing this is simply that I have the wrong side favored. I've got Delaware State at -1, and they're getting up to +8.5 at North Carolina Central. Delaware State has only one road win. Neither team shoots well. The two teams played last year three times, and the winner won by no more than three points. Delaware State has only won once in its last eight games, covering three times. North Carolina Central hasn't covered its last three games, winning once. Delaware State to cover.
Big ACC match with NC State at 9-2 in the conference, visiting Louisville, who are 7-4 in the conference. NC State is 6-1 in road games this year. They are picking up momentum at the right time of the season, winning six games straight. Louisville has had an easy time of it during their three-game win streak, being a favorite of 9.5 or more, and they're only 2-8 against the spread in the last 10. We're buying high and selling low in a spot where Louisville should be only a 1.5-point favorite. NC State gets the job done tonight with help from its 40.2% shooting from 3-point range, which ranks 7th nationally. NC State to win.
Drake Maye led all quarterbacks, taking 62 sacks on the year, regular season and postseason combined. And now we’ve got a sack-hungry Seattle defense that is starving to get a taste of Maye. The guy who has my immediate attention is DeMarcus Lawrence. The Seahawks have played playoff teams in their last five games, and Lawrence had a sack in three of his last four starts. I'm feeling pretty good about Lawrence getting at least a half-sack with Maye as the starting quarterback.
Seattle wants to be conservative but also show some new moves with some new runners, including Rashid Shaheed. In their last game against the Rams, they tried one run, and he got 0 yards, but in his first playoff game, he had two attempts for 27 yards. Zach Charbonnet played that game, and he is out with an injury. They can only run Kenneth Walker so much before running out of options, and using the dynamite explosiveness of Shaheed could be the secret weapon. That’s what makes him so valuable. Use him. Get him involved in the gameplan. He's a game changer. He had 9 carries for 69 yards in the regular season and 3 for 27 yards in the two postseason games.
I'm waiting on a Super Bowl prediction, but I think I know where I'm going, and I think I know where Kenneth Walker is going. Without Zach Charbonnet, now, Walker is going to carry the ball at least 20 times in this game, get over 125 yards rushing and receiving combined, and at least one TD scored, which sets me up for quite a few props. The Seahawks have won 9 straight games, and in the last three, Walker has gotten over 111 yards in all three. Walker has been on it in four of his last five games, and the last five games were all playoff teams. Walker over 98.5 rushing and receiving yards.
The Seahawks and Patriots were the top teams in each conference, with each only losing three games, and each covering 14 games on the season. The Patriots went 9-0 in away games, and the Seahawks went 8-1 in road games. Seattle won nine games in a row, with the last five games being against playoff teams and covering the last four. Drake Maye has looked shaky over the last few weeks, as has his offensive line. The Seahawks were No. 1 in the NFL against the rush number, 6th in total yards allowed (293.4), and No. 1 in total points (17.1) allowed. The real betting hasn't begun. I think this line moves through 5 and 5.5 quickly and closes 6.
The Seahawks defense doesn't get talked about as much as the offense, but this defense was No. 1 in the NFL with 3.8 yards per rush allowed and No. 1 in points allowed at 17.1. We’ve got two QBs who are first-time Super Bowl starters and two defensive coaches who are first-time Super Bowl leaders. This is one Super Bowl that I don't think either offense has the success that we usually think of, particularly Drake Maye and the Patriots' offense. The Seahawks' defense keeps this game under. I think a score like 27-16 sounds appropriate.
It's a battle for the Big Sky bottom with Northern Arizona visiting Idaho State tonight. Northern Arizona is 8-15, including 0-9 in road games. However, they've covered 11 games. Idaho State is 10-13 and 6-3 at home, but has lost its last five games, the last four coming on the road. The two teams met last month in Flagstaff, with Idaho State winning 81-79 but failing to cover the -4.5 spread. I made Idaho State a 2-point favorite, and it came -8 and settled at -7. Shooting is not a problem for Northern Arizona as they hit 47.1% from the field and 37.9% from three-point range. I took the points with Northern Arizona.
We’ve got a Patriot League matchup with first-place Navy traveling to Lafayette. Navy is 9-1 in conference play and 17-6 overall, riding a five-game win streak, and has covered its last four. Lafayette has lost five of their last eight and is 3-5 ATS in their last eight. Navy plays a solid defense, allowing opponents to shoot 40.4% while also having a good shot selection, hitting 47.1% from the field on offense. I made this game Navy -11, and it came -4.5 and settled at -3.5. Navy to cover.
We have a Missouri Valley Conference clash: Valparaiso (11-11) visits Bradley (15-8). Valparaiso has covered 15 of its 21 lined games, and Bradley has covered only 8 of its 22 lined games. Valparaiso has only won twice on the road, but they're currently on a cover streak of five games in a row, losing twice to first-place Belmont over that span. Bradley has won two of their last four games and has only covered once in their last five. Bradley averages a 78-73 score on the season. Valparaiso has covered two of the last three meetings, while Bradley has won nine games in a row. Valparaiso to win.
Dillon Brooks is having a career year with Phoenix, scoring 21 points per game and shooting a career best 44.5%. His career has been rebooted and rejuvenated with the best ATS team in the NBA. While Devin Booker is injured, Brooks has scored 26 or more in his last three games and last night scored 40 points. Phoenix is playing a slow-down game, staying under the total in their last four and having Brooks take the most shots without Booker. I don't see the Suns winning tonight, but I do see Brooks getting over 24 points.
Horizon League matchup here: Wright State (13-8) is in first place and plays at Milwaukee (9-13). I've got the biggest disparity of the day with this game on the spread: I made Wright State -9, and it opened -2 and settled at -3. What I like about Wright State is that they shoot 49.4% from the field, and there aren't many teams that defend worse than Milwaukee, allowing 47.6% shooting. Wright State also shoots 36.3% from 3-point range, and they average 80.8 points per game. Wright State has won eight of its last nine games and has gone over the total in its last five. Milwaukee has lost seven of its last nine games, covering only twice in its last eight.