Lenoir has logged 5 tackles + assists in both of the 49ers playoff games this season. Lenoir went over this line of 4.5 in 11 games this season, and he is likely to do it again against the Chiefs. KC offensive coordinator Matt Nagy was running lots of screen action against Baltimore, and if the Chiefs are looking to get the ball out of Mahomes hands quickly, Lenoir should have plenty of chance to get tackle and assist chances while defending the short pass game.

In San Francisco's two playoff games this season, Purdy has cleared this total of 12.5. When the play breaks down, Purdy comes up in the clutch using his legs. He is likely to see a good deal of pressure from Chiefs DE's Chris Jones and George Karlaftis. When that pressure comes, I expect Purdy to play on his instincts and take off a few times in this game.

At +625 odds, I have to sprinkle this! We know how creative Andy Reid's playbook can get, and in the Superbowl I expect him to have a few tricks up his sleeve. Look for a potential rush attempt from "Full House" formation, or possibly on a 4th and short to Kelce playing the Fullback spot. Kelce did not have a rush attempt all season long, until last week against the Ravens. The Chiefs may go back to it.

"Juice" is perhaps the league's most skilled Fullback. Beyond his elite blocking abilities, Juszczyk has been a reliable pass-catching option for Brock Purdy. Juszczyk has logged a reception in 4 of the past 5 games. When the 49ers star-studded cast of receivers all find themselves covered, the defense forgets about "Juice." Look for Juszczyk to come up with a clutch catch.

Christian McCaffrey is going to be bet on heavily in this game, and for good reason. However, with McCaffrey's rushing yards total set near 90 yards, I'd rather target the Over on his receiving yards prop. The Chiefs will surely look to stack the box and stop the potent 49ers rush attack. This will give McCaffrey opportunities in the pass game. McCaffrey had 5+ targets in 11 games this season. Purdy will check down and screen to McCaffrey early and often.

This total opened at 47.5... and it hasn't budged. More than 60% of the public bets thus far have gone towards the Over, but the number has stayed firm. It is no surprise to see the Over as the public side, especially in a game featuring Patrick Mahomes and the potent offense of the 49ers. Considering that, a total of 47.5 feels curiously low... and that is why I like it! San Francisco should go run heavy and look to control possession, and keep Mahomes off the field. The Chiefs may look to feed RB Isiah Pacheco as well. A run-heavy game with two elite defenses will keep the total Under.

It seems the entire observable universe is betting on the Chiefs... I'll go the opposite way. I get it. Mahomes is an unbelievable 10-1-1 ATS when playing as an underdog. When the money on the handle is against Mahomes, he is 15-7 ATS. However, the public betting market is very much with Mahomes in this game. When listed as the public side, he is a much more human 45-42-3 ATS. Many analysts sold on this Chiefs team halfway through the season. Now they are unbeatable all of a sudden? I don't buy it. If the Chiefs have the better QB, head coach, kicker, more playoff experience and the public backing... why are they still +110 underdogs? I smell a trap. Bet Niners.

The Lions are catching more than a TD on the spread, which feels entirely too wide, considering we saw San Francisco nearly fall to the Packers. Despite the unreal talent on the 49ers roster, this team is far from invincible. If Deebo Samuel plays, I imagine his shoulder will still be compromised. If his role is limited, the dynamic of this offense drastically shifts. Detroit's defense ranks #1 against the run and #1 in QB pressure rate. If they can contain Christian McCaffrey and swarm Brock Purdy, the 49ers might look human again. Detroit has a Top-5 ranked rush offense, and this Niners defense can be soft against the run. Detroit can stick around to cover, and perhaps even pull off the upset!

Baltimore is clearly the most complete team in the AFC. The books are giving Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs three and the hook, (+3.5) which seems too good to be true considering Mahomes is now 9-1-1 ATS as an underdog. All great trends must end, and this one feels like bait. I won't let that -3.5 line scare me off the favorite. The Chiefs are dealing with injuries to some key players (best OL Joe Thuney is out, RB Isiah Pacheco battling through turf toe, LB Willie Gay playing through neck injury, etc). Kansas City has leaned on their Top-5 defense all season, but lately they have been unable to stop the run. They won't have enough to get past Lamar and the Ravens today.

Both the Ravens and the Chiefs have found success this season behind the classic winning football fundamentals- A strong run game and a strong defense. The Chiefs secondary has been excellent, so Baltimore should look to go run-heavy, putting together long drives that keep Patrick Mahomes off the field and eat up clock. This Ravens defense has been elite all season, and now they get back veteran CB Marlon Humphrey. Rain and 10+ MPH winds are now expected during game time. Public bets are coming in on the over, yet the total is ticking back to 44 on some books. Reverse line movement alert! Bet this Under above the key number of 44.

Simply put, I am forced to back Mahomes as an underdog. When playing as the dog, Mahomes is 8-1-1 ATS & 7-3 SU. When playing as the dog or a favorite of less than 3 points, Mahomes is 20-8-1 ATS. The public is currently backing the Bills, with the majority of money on the handle coming in on the Buffalo side. When the money is against Mahomes and he is not the "public side", he is 13-7 ATS. The Chiefs feel like they are finally coming into form, and they've leaned on this elite defense all year. The Bills have been playing "must win" games for the past two months. Their injuries and fatigue will catch up to them today.

The Chiefs have leaned on their top five defense all year long, and I expect another strong performance from them today. The Bills should look to establish the run, which will slow the pace of this game down. Temperatures in Buffalo will be below 30 degrees, with 10+ MPH winds to boot. The public betting market does not seem to care, with more than 65% of the bets currently on the Over. The total moved from 46 to 45.5 despite that, signaling some minor reverse line movement. I'll take the Under here above this key number of 45, and look for playoff defense in the cold.

This total opened at 46, and early money has come in heavily on the Under. The number does seem suspiciously low, considering the Texans just dropped 45 points themselves against the Browns. However, Texans QB CJ Stroud has been able to thrive in indoor dome stadium environments. He will now head to frosty Baltimore, where game time temperatures are expected to be below 30 degrees, with 10+ MPH winds. This Ravens secondary is elite, and if the Texans cannot establish a ground game, Stroud might be stuck in "3rd and long" all game. Houston's defense is good against the run, and I expect them to play their safeties deep to take away the big plays. These factors will suppress scoring.

Both of these teams limped into the playoffs, quite literally. The Eagles and Buccaneers are littered with injuries to key players. Star WR AJ Brown is out, and Jalen Hurts is playing with a recently dislocated finger. On the Buccaneers side, Baker Mayfield seems to be grimacing after every hit he takes these past two weeks. If Mayfield is compromised Tampa will be in trouble, as the Buc's rush offense ranks bottom five in the league. The Eagles have also struggled against the blitz this season, and Bucs head coach Todd Bowles blitzes at the 3rd highest rate in the NFL. Play this Under the key number of 43.

Simply put, I don't see this game being competitive. The Mason Rudolph-led Steelers have found recent success, but largely on the back of a few big plays against weak teams. The loss of TJ Watt cannot be understated. In games played without Watt, the Steelers are 1-10 SU & 4-6-1 ATS. Weather conditions are not as severe as initially expected, and at home in Buffalo I expect Josh Allen to handle business against the weakest team to make the playoffs. Mason Rudolph is a regression candidate, and if Pittsburgh is playing from behind early on, their run-focused game plan could be compromised. Since 2010, double-digit playoff favorites are 11-4 ATS. Don't be afraid to back Buffalo in a beat down.