Alex's Picks (2 Live)
Alex's Past Picks
Ivica Zubac is having an exceptional series where he is averaging a healthy 16/10 on 57% shooting from field. Zubac had a career best season and he has been a difference maker in this series. With that being said, this number is simply massive for the Croatian Center and I anticipate a better performance defensively from Daniel Gafford who has really been underwhelming in this series, despite an incredible 20 game stretch to close out the regular season. Zubac has the best plus/minus of any member of the Clippers so it will be imperative for Dallas to try to keep him at bay and/or off the floor.
This is a huge number for Bam who has only eclipsed this line in 1/4 games of this series, despite playing nearly 40 MPG in the playoffs. Adeabyo has played well but the Heat are simply overmatched and without Jimmy Butler there is just a massive disparity in talent between these teams and it is simply too much for Miami to overcome. Boston stewed over their first round loss to Miami last season and I believe will be highly motivated to take care of business and complete the gentleman's sweep of the Heat.
This is a big number for Bobby Portis even without Damian Lillard and Giannis in then lineup. Portis is a very productive player that typically comes off the bench when the Bucks are at full strength. He is much bigger offensive responsibilities with Milwaukee missing their two stars and leading scorers. While Portis usage should obviously increase he tends to struggle when hes a primary or secondary scoring option which is why I like fading him tonight.
Both of these squads played very little defense in the regular season and that has translated to the playoffs. I am surprised this total is as low as it is considering they have easily eclipsed this total in three consecutive games. I personally don't see that trend suddenly changing in Game 5 and I have no clue why this total has actually shrunk a few points. Both teams like to get out and run, in addition to routinely getting shots up with double digits seconds left on the shot clock. Until they prove otherwise, I'm riding OVER.
Jalen Brunson is putting the league on notice and has out-dueled the reigning MVP on the way to leading a short handed Knicks squad to a 3-1 lead over the 76ers. Brunson is averaging 33 PPG, 9 APG, and 5 RPG. However this is a massive combo line typically reserved for Luka Doncic and Nikola Jokic. With all due respect to Brunson who is an elite player and deserves All-NBA 1st team consideration, I have to fade him here out of sheer principle. I also believe the 76ers defense and HC Nick Nurse will make defensive adjustments, coupled with Brunson's teammates contributing more on their home court.
I hate fading Jalen Brunson as he is one of my favorite players in the league, however this is just an absurdly high number for the star guard. This series has surprisingly featured a ton of scoring considering how good defensively both these teams are, in addition to them both playing slow. Jalen Brunson has been everything for the Knicks but I believe his teammates will provide some more scoring when the series shifting back to New York. I also believe the Sixers defense will make some adjustments, coupled with this game being paced down.
Kelly Oubre made approximately 1.5 three pointers during the regular season on just 31% 3PT FG%. Despite playing more minutes in the postseason, Oubre is taking just 3.3 three points per game, however he is shooting 46% from deep, which we know is not sustainable as he is a career 32% shooter from behind the arc. I like fading most of Oubre's props tonight but this is my preferred angle. I also believe he may lose a couple minutes to De'Anthony Melton as well.
Lebron James continues to defy father time and is still playing at an extremely high level. They will need a Herculean effort from Lebron if the Lakers are to have any chance of extending the series to Game 6. Lebron has posted monster stat lines in elimination/close out games historically and with his back against the wall, I expect a big outing from the best player of his generation.
Jrue Holiday has had a really rough series against the Miami Heat. The 2x All-Star is averaging 6 PPG, 3.7 APG, & 4.0 RPG on dismal shooting splits of 28/36%. Jrue is yet to attempt a single free throw as well. While Jrue is still an excellent defender and is able to make a positive impact that doesn't appear on the box score, this production is simply not good enough, in addition to being well below his regular season averages of 12/5/5 on 48/43% splits. Jrue is better than what he's shown and I expect an inspired performance from the veteran guard. Not to mention this combo line is low enough where he can struggle and still get home.
Devin Booker is in the midst of possibly his worst playoff series of his career against the Timberwolves. Booker is averaging 20/6/3 on 43/26% shooting splits. Not good for a legit MVP candidate and one of the NBA's premiere two guards. He's likely going to log 42-45 minutes tonight barring foul trouble and I expect him to be very aggressive. The Timberwolves have a great defense, but Booker is too good to be held down four consecutive games here. This number is too low.
This is a lot of juice but I am willing to lay it as KD has made a total of 3 three pointers so far in this series and has only attempted 9 total. KD and the Suns appear demoralized. Jaden McDaniels is playing tremendous defense on KD as well. Durant only made 3+ threes in 37% of his regular season games, meanwhile Durant has been held UNDER this line in seven consecutive games against the Wolves including four regular season matchups.
The Milwaukee Bucks will be without their two best players in Giannis and Damian Lillard who account for nearly 55 PPG, in addition to 36 FGA's. Brook Lopez is going to have to step up if the Bucks are to have a chance to survive. We know Indiana wants to get out and run and play out a break neck pace. I expect Lopez to get up a lot of shots and with Milwaukee likely playing from behind, it wouldn't surprise me to see him take 6+ threes in this game.
Getting this play out ASAP as Kawhi was just ruled out leaving Harden as the primary scorer. I believe this line is too high for him and if the same Dallas team that showed up in Game 3, Harden is unlikely to eclipse this combo line.