Josh's Past Picks
The Thunder had a predictable letdown in Game 3 following their two blowout wins to start the series on their home floor. A second straight OKC no-show would breathe life back into Minnesota's self-belief system, so look for the Thunder to come out refocused and reassert control of the series with a Game 4 victory.
It's been a disastrous second-round series for the Celtics, who are going to be haunted by their monumental collapses in Games 1 and 2 behind 20-point leads. As a bonus, they squandered another 19-point lead and lost star Jayson Tatum in Game 4. Even so, this team has enough depth to overcome the loss of Tatum in the short term. Reigning Finals MVP Jaylen Brown, along with veterans such as Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, are capable of picking up the slack. Although Boston's season remains in peril, look for a spirited effort in Game 5.
The Warriors were a -200 favorite to win this series despite coming in as the No. 7 seed with the home-court disadvantage against the No. 2-seeded Rockets. Behind the offense of Fred VanVlaeet and a rugged disposition, Houston has rebounded from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7 on its home floor. although the veteran-laden Warriors appear to be fading, we're going to back the playoff-proven likes of Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler to drag Golden State into the second round.
If there's one club that can slow down Duke, it's a Houston club with the nation's top defense and default home-court advantage. Even so, we've seen the Cougars' occasional offensive lapses nearly cost them their tournament lives against Gonzaga and Purdue. No doubt the Cougars will fight until the final horn, but look for Duke to clip the number on its way to the title game.
It's telling that Auburn earned the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament despite dropping three of its previous four leading into the Bog Dance. The Tigers have proven their mettle by passing tests in each of the past three rounds against dangerous opponents. Their star player, Johni Brrome, says he 100% after getting banged up against Michigan State. Look for Auburn to outlast SEC foe Florida and head to the title game.
The Spartans trailed much of the way against an Ole Miss club that appeared to have the better team having the better night. But coach Tom Izzo's March-proven pedigree won out again as Michigan State scrapped its way to the Elite Eight. The Tigers have the superior talent but have shown lapses at times. They were let off the hook by Michigan on Friday but it's unlikely the Spartans will be put away before the final horn.
This is just too juicy of a price to pass up on a Tom Izzo-coached team to reach his ninth Final Four opposing Auburn's Bruce Pearl, who has reached one in his decorated career. It's also a bet against the rarity of all four No. 1 seeds reaching the Final Four, which ahs only happened once (2008) in NCAA Tournament history.
Player for player, Tennessee might have the more talented team. But Vols coach Rick Barnes has reached the Final Four just once in his 38 seasons as a Division I head coach despite leading numerous ultra-talented clubs. We'll side with a Houston led by Kelvin Sampson, who has been to the Elite Eight twice and a Final Four over the past five seasons, to use its signature stifling defense to move on.
The Crimson Tide are unlikely to duplicate their effort in their Sweet 16 blowout of BYU that included hitting 25-51 from 3-point range. Although the nation's top-scoring team can win a shootout with anyone, the equally explosive Blue Devils should welcome this challenge and pull away on their way to the Final Four.
The Gators struggled in the second round against a UConn team that played stout half-court defense and held its own on the boards. Texas Tech is better on both categories and, despite coming off an OT thriller that could lead to a possible letdown, we're expecting the Red Raiders to fight until the finish and at least cover.
We’re taking the points in a dead-even matchup with both programs in their current form. Alabama is led by Final Four veterans Mark Sears and Grant Nelson. The Crimson Tide had a bit of an uneven regular season, going 4-5 in their last nine games before the NCAA Tournament. They took care of business in the first two rounds but still had some trouble putting away Robert Morris and St. Mary’s. BYU has seen an ultra-efficient offense result in 50% field-goal shooting through the first two games, and the Cougars also showed resilience in beating Wisconsin after squandering a double-digit lead. They also have been sneakily under the oddsmakers’ radars all season, and we think there is value with them again Thursday.
The late-surging Rams made an impressive run to win the Mountain West tournament. But given the dreadful showing of their MWC counterparts in both this and recent seasons, it's surprising to see the AAC champion Tigers, who have won 16 of 17, lined as an underdog on a neutral court.
VCU has been a popular first-round underdog. But, as this spread suggests, the Cougars remain undervalued in the market as they have been all season. They have won 9 of their last 10 and the Rams are in for a wake-up call against a higher level of competition than they are used to facing.
The Big Sky champion Grizzlies have won 14 of their last 15, with the lone setback coming by 3 points. This club has the depth, with 6 players averaging at least 9.2 points and 4 averaging double figures. Montana has the experience and should have the poise to hang with a solid but unspectacular Wisconsin club.
Creighton's season peaked with its win over rival UConn in the Big East Tournament. The Bluejays were routed in the final by St. John's and now face a team with a similar profile in Louisville. The Cardinals won 11 straight before falling to Duke in the ACC final but they have a favorable first-round matchup.