

Josh Nagel
Senior Analyst
Josh Nagel is a Reno-based analyst and radio host who has worked in the sports handicapping industry for more than 20 years. SportsLine's assistant managing editor has covered the wagering industry on a variety of platforms, and has won numerous sports handicapping contests. He prides himself on consistency and insightful analysis. He has hit 60.4 percent of his NBA pointspread picks since the start of the 2017 season, netting his followers 35.3 units. A combat sports expert, Josh appears on "Early Edge" UFC shows and shapes SportsLine's MMA content. For Josh Nagel media inquiries, contact SportsLine@CBSInteractive.com.
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Josh's Past Picks
The 49ers have allowed the most receptions to opposing running backs, and the backdrop aligns for White to have a strong game. He's RB1 for Washington with Jacory Croskey-Merritt headed to IR and, although Washington will still use a committee, White should see plenty of action. The dual-threat RB has long had some of the top RB receiving analytics in the NFL and should have a chance to showcase those skills amid in both neutral and trailing game scripts.
Brown's (somewhat) unexpected return Sunday from the ankle injury that has sidelined him since Week 1 corresponds with predictably low player prop numbers. But they're not nearly low enough. We'd be stunned if Brown saw enough volume or had a play big enough to clip this number. We believe he'll be used just enough to get a feel for game speed and an ovation from the appreciative crowd but will play limited snaps. Position players coming off injuries are historically ripe for Unders in these spots, and this is a prime backdrop for such results.
The recent history of this rivalry suggests a lean toward Cleveland, including that the Browns have won four consecutive TNF games against the Steelers. But moreover, we just don't believe Pittsburgh has earned the distinction as a road chalk in this matchup. The Steelers are coming off their best showing in their shootout win over the Bengals, but Cleveland has won two straight and already looks more competent than it has in recent years. We'll take the points in what we believe is basically a pick'em matchup.
We'll jump on the ultimate buy-low spot on the polarizing Cardinals WR. Harrison was backed by his teammates and coaches in the assertion that the Chargers, led by former collegiate rival Jim Harbaugh, swarmed him last week, which led to his one-catch outing. Even so, that one reception went for 33 yards and nearly clipped this number. In what is likely a trailing game script, we'll bank on MHJ to clip this low number.
We're not sold on the popular narrative that the Broncos are in a prime bounce-back spot following their Week 1 blowout loss at KC. While we expect an improved defensive effort, the offense still has a lot of work to do. Moreover, the Jags went into Denver last year and posted a 34-20 Week 16 victory in a crucial matchup for both clubs. Jacksonville is the more polished club at the moment and a value as an underdog.
The Chargers were in the -9.5 range in look-ahead lines for this matchup. Following their disastrous Week 1 loss to the Cardinals, we'll take the discount and back them to get the best of a Raiders club following their opening victory over Miami.
We'll back the Bengals gun slinger to do some damage against a vaunted Houston defense that allowed 409 yards and 36 points to the Bills last week. His heroics weren't needed much last week amid a slew of short fields provided by 4 Tampa Bay turnovers. In other words, we'll chalk his 1-TD performance up to variance and take the value on 2 passing TDs in Week 2.
We expect a New England defense that allowed just 285 total yards and 13 points to the Seahawks, to put up a similar performance against a limited Pittsburgh offense that will be without veteran WR Michael Pittman. This is a favorable matchup for the Patriots, who self-destructed down the stretch in Week 1, to get on track with a resounding win.
Some of Carolina QB Bryce Young's best career games have come at Atlanta and, with the Falcons QB situation still a mess with Cooper Rush making another start, we'll take the Panthers to take advantage and emerge with a win.



Last December, Van won the flyweight title from Pantoja when the long-reigning champion suffered an injury within 30 seconds of the first round. Although the outcome was disappointing for both parties, the 24-year-old Van showed his mettle with a fifth-round stoppage over Tatsuro Taira in May for his first title defense in perhaps the greatest flyweight title fight in UFC history. Now, the 36-year-old Pantoja is healthy and prepared for deserved rematch, but we believe Van, who has showcased excellent versatility to augment his world-class striking, will prevail in this rematch. Pantoja will go down as one of the UFC's all-time greatest flyweights, but this fight will illustrate that the torch has been officially passed.
We believe the versatile White will emerge as the most valuable back for the Commanders, who are using a committee. At the least, he will be the passing-downs back and, it what rates to be a trailing game script, should get a few targets. He could get this on one play but we think he will coast comfortably past this meager number.
We believe Nailor will emerge as top target-getter among receivers for Las Vegas and, without TE Brock Bowers in the short term, Nailor could get even more looks. New coach Klint Kubiak targeted the former Vikings WR in free agency and signed him to a lucrative deal. He played with Kirk Cousins in Minnesota for 2 years and is the most versatile wideout on the team. These prop numbers are bound to spike as the season progresses, so buy low now.
We already liked the Bucs +3.5 so of course we see additional value at +4 with this reduced juice. Simply put, the Bucs have the personnel to match the Bengals in a potential shootout, and Bengals coach Zac Taylor is 10-17-1 in Weeks 1-4 throughout his Cincinnati tenure. We anticipate the shootout implied by the total and will grab the points with a live underdog.
We believe the Ravens are getting a little too much respect in this spread. Coach Jesse Minter is making his head coaching debut against a Colts club that came out on fire on their way to an 8-2 start before the injury to Daniel Jones and subsequent disastrous decision to bring Philip Rivers out of retirement as his replacement derailed their season. With Jones reportedly near full health behind one of the league's top offensive lines, we expect a competitive game that could easily see the underdog win outright.
The Colts made a statement by trading stalwart Michael Pittman to the Steelers and choosing to re-sign Pierce to a four-year extension worth $84 million guaranteed. Pierce spent the preseason battling an ankle injury for which he had surgery in March. But he’s been cleared for Week 1 and last year his connection with QB Daniel Jones was evident. Pierce managed his first career 1,000-yard season even with an injured Jones sidelined down the stretch. The coaching staff has said the receiver’s snaps might be limited early until he gets up to full game shape, but he’s the quarterback’s favorite target and they’ll need him to win the game. This number is short, and we anticipate prop value on Pierce in the early season.






