This main-card opener features what should be an entertaining battle of featherweight prospects

We'll take the discount on McKinney, who had been priced around -150 until the last couple of days. The price move appeared to be spawned by Green expressing upset with McKinney, whom he viewed as an ally, accepting the fight offer. The seemingly ageless Green has won three straight at age 39 and has faced tougher competition. But we'll side with the ultra-explosive 31-year-old McKinney, who appears to be improving his technique despite his reckless reputation.

The gritty and resilient Bautista has made an impressive run to the top 5 at bantamweight, and he's been calling for this rematch with Sandhagen, who handed him a loss in his UFC debut, for some time. Although Sandhagen's 0-4 record in title fights and eliminators illustrates his ceiling, he's settled in as a top-5 gatekeeper and this matchup favors him. He should use his length to stay on the outside and Bautista will struggle to close the distance for both striking and grappling. Look for Sandhagen to win a lackluster but clear decision.

The all-action Royval has settled into the role of flyweight top-5 gatekeeper and we think he's being disrespected in these odds. The one-time title challenger has impressive wins over former champion Brandon Moreno and recent title challenger Tatsuro Taira, and he battled current champion Joshua Van in an epic three-round classic last June. Kavanagh has shown potential but is getting a little too much respect coming off a win over a now-washed Moreno in February. Royval has delivered in underdog spots previously and we expect him to do it again.

The 35-year-old Whittaker is on the back end of his career and the former middleweight champion is moving to light heavyweight ostensibly because he can no longer compete at a top-10 level at 185 pounds. Whittaker was always big for middleweight so size shouldn't be an issue and he's taking on a veteran in Krylov who has been knocked out by lesser opponents. We think the price on Whittaker is a bit thin and expect the Australian slugger to win his light heavyweight debut.

The violence-minded Saint Denis is on a four-fight winning streak, but two of those came against fading veterans Beneil Dariush and Dan Hooker, though his victory over Mauricio Ruffy has aged extremely well. We were slow to embrace Pimblett as a true contender and he proved unworthy of being a -300 favorite against Justin Gaethje in January. Even so, the pendulum has swung back a bit too far. We think this fight should be about a pick'em, with Pimblett's ground game savvy and durability enough to give the "God of War" all he can handle.

This is the one fight in which the underdog has seen some steady action, but we like Lopes on the reduced price from an opener of -200. Lopes came up short in two title bids against Volkanovski but should have the edge in this matchup. Steve Garcia is a dangerous brawler but the last time Lopes saw a similar matchup, against Jean Silva, he took him out in short order. Capitalize on the discount price here, as Lopes has been seen as low as -150 in some markets.

The lower this price drops, the more we want to bet (and bet on) Max Holloway. Provided Conor McGregor actually makes it to the cage, we think the proverbial puncher's chance is all he's got and it won't be enough against Holloway. McGregor was last seen in the cage 5 years ago and was on the short end of his second beating in 6 months from Dustin Poirier. Five years and a broken leg later, he'll be even more diminished. The books were right to open Holloway at -500 or steeper, while McGregor backers who have drive this price down are just delusional. Take advantage and cash in.

Although this card is full of fights with odds that suggest a “squash match,” shorthand for a lopsided matchup, we feel at least one matchup is likely to upset the chalk-heavy continuum and wreck parlays. We’re going to back Daukaus, whose career resurgence has seen him find a six-fight winning streak, which includes a two-fight finish streak in his second stint with the UFC. He has shown an increasingly polished skillset and we expect him at worst to be a stiff challenge for the polarizing Nickal, the prodigal wrestling talent who is 5-1 in the UFC but 0-1 against ranked competition. Daukaus has shown the talent to merit a top-15 ranking and he’ll get there should he pull the upset,

This is a bit of a chalky price but there's still some relative value on Brito, a once fast-rising prospect whose 7-1 UFC start included a debut win over future title contender Diego Lopes. Brito saw his momentum halted with back-to-back losses and is looking to get back on track. He has an edge in overall skillset against Leavitt, who is a journeyman-plus with a 6-3 UFC record. He is a tricky grappler who can surprise unprepared opponents, but Brito is the level of fighter against whom he usually comes up short.

We'll take the 4-point discount offered on the Celtics amid the late-breaking news of Jayson Tatum's injury scratch. Boston's 43-23 record without Tatum this year suggests he is one of the more expendable NBA stars relative to his team's success and there's a history of such instances in which a team rallies in the absence of a key player in a big game.

The short-handed Timberwolves predictably struggled in a Game 5 blowout loss, and it stands to reason Game 6 on their home floor presents their best chance of winning this first-round series. Despite going without star Anthony Edwards, this Minnesota team plays with much better energy on its home floor and a depth-limited Denver club has lacked resilience and poise on the road. The Nuggets have failed to cover in 8 straight road games and, should they escape with a win Thursday night, we believe it will be by a razor-thin margin over a Minnesota club that we expect to fight until the final buzzer.

This feels like a prime letdown spot for a Lakers club that is in the second of a six-game road swing. They toppled the short-handed Rockets 100-92 on Monday night, but the return of big man Alperen Sengun should give Houston a needed boost as it aims to close the gap for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

The Wolf Pack made the MWC semifinals before being ousted by eventual champion Utah State. Although they played in a tougher conference than the Racers did in the Missouri Valley Conference and Murray State stumbled to losses in 4 of its past 5, we have seen enough of Nevada to observe that this is a difficult spot in which to back the Wolf Pack as a nearly double-digit favorite.

The bubble-straddling Knights snapped a three-game skid and kept their NCAA Tournament hopes alive with a wild late comeback Wednesday against Cincinnati. It wouldn't take much in the way of a respectable performance to cover against high-powered Arizona, and UFC did just that in an 84-77 loss in their regular-season meeting despite a relatively lackluster performance in which it shot just 40% from the field. Look for the Knights to at least put up an ample fight in this rematch.

The Broncos likely secured their first NCAA Tournament bid in 30 years on the strength of their upset win over Saint Mary's in the WCC semifinals to advance to their first final in 19 years. This is a legitimate NCAA-worthy Santa Clara club but it faces a tough turnaround against a Gonzaga club that is looking to shake off a somewhat lackluster effort against Oregon State in the semifinals. This is likely Mark Few's most talented team since the 2021 team that reached the NCAA title game, and we expect a sharp performance that leads to a double-figure win and another WCC title.