We've been of the belief that Anthony Hernandez is slightly overrated, and never more so than when he was absurdly priced at -300 versus Sean Strickland in his last bout. Hernandez relies on his relentless wrestling pace and sinister demeanor to break his opponents. But when his target fires back, he doesn't handle it well. While we agree that a longer fight favors Hernandez, we're not sure it reaches the later rounds. Gregory Rodrigues is an explosive striker and world-class grappler himself. Hernandez won't be hard to find and we think there's major value on the underdog to win with another explosive finish.

Jones has looked much improved in his second UFC stint, going 3-0 with two performance bonuses since rejoining the promotion. Even so, he has thrived against modest competition and we believe this price is way too steep against a efficient striker such as Mederos, who has gone 3-0-1 in the UFC against decent opposition.

Garry has somehow emerged as one of the most reviled fighters on the UFC roster for reasons not worth exploring here. But with seemingly most of the MMA-viewing world rooting for Makhachev, we'll take a half-unit shot on Garry as a major underdog. His length and calculated style could give problems to Makhachev, who has been known to get careless defensively on occasion. With such an upside down UFC slate this year that has seen a bunch of main-event upsets, it would seem fitting that Garry becomes the champion that basically nobody wants to see become one.

Turner was once viewed as a rising prospect before hitting a 1-4 stretch against upper-tier competition. He announced his retirement before returning to notch a win over fading veteran Edson Barboza last December. Fernandes is a prospect who has shown precise striking and lethal leg kicks, which he will likely have to use to combat a 6-inch height disadvantage against the 6-3 Turner. Even so, we don't trust Turner in high-profile opportunities and believe Fernandes will announce himself as a legitimate rising prospect with the biggest win of his UFC career.

The 34-year-old Luque is just 3-5 in his past eight over the last 4 years but all of his losses have come against upper-tier competition. Gore is seen by some as a potential late bloomer but he's just 3-4 in the UFC with numerous losses against low-level opposition. We see the veteran Luque prevailing in this one.

Billy Q had a late-career run to the fringes of the rankings a few years ago but that proved to be his ceiling. He's now 37, 1-3 in his last 4 fights, looked semi-washed in his last appearance and is coming off an 18-month layoff to move up a weight class. Ferreira is 41 and also past his prime but we think he has enough left to dispatch of Quarantillo, who could be facing release with another lopsided defeat.

Gamrot was once viewed as one of the lightweight division's top prospects, but a handful of losses against top competition prevented him from competing for a title. Even so, he still has wins over the likes of former champion Rafael dos Anjos and current title contender Arman Tsarukyan on his resume. SalKilld has looked explosive and dangerous while compiling a 5-0 UFC mark, but his best win is over washed former contender Bemeil Dariush and the rest against journeymen. This is a major step up in competition and, should Gamrot rely on his world-class wrestling skills, we believe he can win with ground control and possibly notch a late submission against Salkilld, who has only been 5 rounds once in his career.

We're not all that impressed with the rising prospect Stirling, who was getting manhandled in his last bout by middling veteran Ion Cutelaba before Cutelaba gassed out and gave up in the second round. It's hard to believe the 43-year-old Blachowicz hasn't notched a win in 4 years, going 0-2-2 in that span. But both decision losses were debated and came against current champ Carlos Ulberg and former champ Alex Pereira. He also had a 5-round draw against former champ Magomed Ankalaev. Even though Blachowicz has undoubtedly lost a step, we still see this as a value price against Striling, who is taking a massive step up in competiiton on short notice.

Erceg has been a disappointment relative to expectations after he was fast-tracked to a title shot early in his UFC stint. He lost three straight before finding consecutive wins against lesser competition. Erceg tends to fight with a risk-averse kickboxing style and it wouldn't be surprising if we a somewhat lackluster co-main event. Temrov has good power for the division but also showed extreme caution in a lackluster win over power puncher Charles Johnson in his last fight. We feel this fight is likely to see the final horn and don't mind laying the thick price on the Over 2.5 rounds.

The 38-year-old Jacoby has won three straight fights by stoppage against inferior competition following a 1-4 stretch against upper-tier opponents. It's difficult to tell which category Said fits as he makes his UFC debut. But he's an undefeated prospect who has shown power despite sometimes careless defense. Jacoby has been difficult to trust as a favorite so we'll take the underdog newcomer as he looks to make a strong impression.

Cannonier has had an uneven UFC journey through three weight classes during his 11-8 run with the promotion. The 42-year-old has lost three of his last four and has been relegated to a gatekeeper position role in the middleweight division. Even so, he has faced a tough gauntlet of opponents including No. 3-ranked Nassourdine Imavov and No. 6-ranked Caio Borrahlo. The 30-year-old Duncan is a rising prospect who has won four straight but his most notable win came against fading journeyman Roman Dolidze in March. One trend we’ve seen time and again of late is the prospect getting way too much respect in the MMA odds against the old guard, and we believe Cannonier is worth a sprinkle at these lucrative odds.

This main-card opener features what should be an entertaining battle of featherweight prospects. Both are accomplished submission artists who also don't mind slugging it out, though McMillen seems to have a preference for the stand-up battle. However, we believe Montes is a little more refined and the superior grappler. McMillen has received a little more hype, which we believe has inflated a price that should probably be the other way around.

The former middleweight champion du Plessis opened in the -350 range only to see this price plummet as early support favors Usman. The former welterweight champion is now 39 and making a last-gasp effort at title contention, and it feels like the UFC is giving him this opportunity as a career achievement reward. Even though DDP struggled to stop the chain wrestling of Khamzat Chimaev in suffering his first UFC loss and surrendering his belt, we believe he still clears everyone else in the division. His advantages in youth, strength and versatility will help him fend off Usman and he should put his opponent away in the third or fourth. Look for TKO/KO odds of around +250 if you want to avoid this ML price.