For underdog Tulsa to win, it likely will put apply a govenor to its usual quick pace. Dictating tempo against run-'n'-gun Auburn by slowing it down slightly places the Golden Hurricane in the best position to steal an NIT title. The Tigers have landed well under this figure in three of four tournament games, the exception being outmanned Seattle. The overall season stats for the finalists might suggest an Over, but the hunch is that Tulsa hopes to make it easier on the scorekeeper.
Luka Doncic, out. Austin Reaves, out. Marcus Smart, maybe out. Los Angeles will miss 57 ppg from their stars, while the iffy Smart produces nearly 10 ppg. LeBron James, as effective as he is in spurts, cannot carry stripped-down squads anymore. Dallas does not win often but can be competitive. Cooper Flagg is coming off a 51-point outburst, which will give the Lakers' defense another concern on top of their challenges on offense.
West Virginia operated as among the slowest offenses in Division I. Then came Saturday's semifinals, when the Mountaineers' game against Creighton resulted in 157 points -- about 20 above the total. This matchup has generated a similar number even though Oklahoma goes quicker than the median team. Its games average 160, in part because 43 percent of the Sooners' field goal attempts are threes. Their defense can be shoddy, so West Virginia could be in more attack mode than usual. The championship game marks the teams' third appearance in the venus, so there is no unfamiliarity with the rims and shot angles.
While UConn's comeback against Duke was one for the ages, these Huskies are a cut below the versions that won two recent titles. They have been inconsistent on threes and don't get to the foul line often. As a result, UConn is 16-22 ATS, compared to 21-15 for Illinois. The Illini roll out the nation's largest team but, with likely lottery pick Keaton Wagler scoring from all over the floor, need not focus on getting the ball low to the bigs. While their tourney schedule has been relatively soft, they have beaten all challengers by double digits. In a spacious dome where depth perception can be problematic for shooters, the team with more varied scoring options benefits. That's Illinois.
This number has eased up a couple of points, perhaps in light of Creighton's love for the three-pointer. Regardless of the figure, it cannot be ignored that West Viirginia stands 12-22 on Overs. (Creighton is 15-18). West Virginia plays at the fourth slowest pace in Division 1 based on possessions per game and allowed the sixth fewest points (just over 65 ppg). The 159 points scored Thursday was misleading; the Mountaineers' game against Stanford crept into overtime, and regulation produced just 136 points -- essentially the same as this total.
This spread has flipped, with Oklahoma opening at -1.5. Evidently, the betting public compared the teams' opening wins in the Crown and rightfully decided Baylor's was more impressive overall. However, Oklahoma did awaken late to dispose of depleted Colorado in overtime as apparent rust that can plague Crown entrants came into play. Keep in mind that the Sooners closed their season on a 9-3 SU run, quite a contrast to Baylor stumbling home 4-7. The Sooners are slightly better on offense and defense. The original line seems more appropriate than this one.
For two teams whose offenses function patiently, this total came up a tad high. Rutgers ranks 262nd in Division 1 for possessions per game, while Creighton stands 201st. The Bluejays often score a lot, owing to their proclivity for shooting threes, but the accuracy may dip in an unfamiliar arena. Guard Austin Swartz, who averages a fracton under 11 ppg, is an injury scratch. Tariq Francis, the Scarlet Knights' top scorer at just under 17 ppg, is dealing with a recent practice injury and could be slowed. Rutgers is hardly a points machine with him at optimum health.
Auburn arrives at the NIT Final Four after three less-than-dazzling wins at home, none in which the Tigers covered. The margins of victory were six, 11 and six points against lesser lights. Illinois State, by contrast, opened with a 21-point win in friendly confines, then knocked off the ACC's Wake Forest by three and NCAA Tournament-worthy Dayton by six on the road. The Redbirds' offense functions on the slow side; the team's games average 261st in possessions. A relatively slow pace makes the 7.5-point spot especially attractive, even though Auburn will strive to speed things up.
In a lower-level postseason tournament with little on the line, the faster-paced team is usually preferably to the slo-mo one. West Virginia operates as the third-slowest squad in Division 1, and Stanford has been afforded plenty of time to prepare. The Cardinal are comfortable playing on the road, having gone 8-6 SU and 3-3 on neutral hardwood. The Mountainers have dropped six in a row SU in impartial settings. They closed the season on a 3-6 SU slide. For extra incentive, Stanford coach Kyle Smith aims for his 300th career victory. His players should be driven to deliver it.
New Mexico blitzed through three opponents enroute to the NIT semifinals. All were home games -- same for Tulsa -- so the Lobos could be expected to cool off from their torrid scoring pace. The Golden Hurricane have been less impressive in part because of the absence of injured David Green (15.7 ppg). He returned for part-time duty in the latest game and might be ready to resume his usual minutes after a long break in the schedule. Tulsa has covered about two of every three games as an underdog. It will feel right at home with the Lobos' quick pace. The original spread has inched up, which makes the Golden Hurricane a fetching play.
The bottom line with a largely hard-to-handicap matchup in the Crown Invitational is this: Minnesota is 2-13 SU away from home, including losses in the last 10. Baylor was no road killer but at least went 5-10 outright. The Bears' KenPom rating is five points higher than Minnesota's, and they have covered in four of the last five. They must adjust to Minnesota's slow pace on offense, but let's count on coach Scott Drew figuring out a way to turn up the heat. Minnesota's roster remains on the small side after injuries thinned the available players, making Baylor's depth another advantage.
This spread has climbed three points with the news that Colorado has three defections to the transfer portal. Perhaps it should have shifted even more. The Buffaloes are missing three of their top four scorers -- Isaiah Johnson, Sebastian Rancik and Bangot Dak. (Apparently, the NIL money promised to players was not enough to persuade them to hang.) Oklahoma's motivation is iffy, given that the Sooners were the last team to miss the NCAA Tournament cut. They finished strong, knocking off five Big Dance teams down the stretch, and are clearly superior to the stripped-down Buffaloes. Perhaps they have something to prove.
The betting public is enamored with Duke, perhaps too much. The Blue Devils are 2-5 ATS in their last seven outings. At the same time, the public seemed to sour late in the season on UConn, which has covered in four of the last six. The Devils were rescued Friday by Caleb Foster, who returned almost overnight from foot surgery with a stellar game. He was back in a boot and on a scooter Saturday, and a repeat performance seems unlikely. The Huskies rank ninth for adjusted defense efficieny and have a big body in Tarris Reed Jr. to bang with Duke, the nation's second tallest team. Given that it would be no shocker if UConn wins outright, receiving this many points is welcome.
Illinois' defense has been stifling, with its last two opponents topping out at 55 points. Iowa's offense has been leisurely, with its last three opponents enduring games that had the fewest possessions in their seasons. Those are the primary ingredients for an Under. Iowa sharpshooter Bennett Stirtz has been frigid in the tournament on threes, nailing just six of 28, and the Illini held him to a dozen points and 2-for-8 from afar in their regular season clash. As for Iowa, it paced the Big Ten in turnovers forced, which can limit Illini baskets.
Given Tennessee's No. 11 ranking for adjusted defense efficiency, the points are worth taking. Iowa State star Joshua Jefferson is listed as questionable, which suggests he will be limited even if he plays. Few teams are more physical than the Volunteers. They can impede the smooth Cyclones from scoring. The Vols easily covered in their first two NCAA Tournament outings and enter this matchup with momentum. Points could be hard to come by, which makes the spread appealing.