Baker Mayfield seems poised to return

From a Mondy night night home date in the Bay Area to an early

With James Madison's loss Thursday, Boise moves clearly to the front of the line for the Group of Six playoff berth. That should provide plenty of motivation coming off a bye and playing in a potentially sleepy atmosphere. Since a not-too-shabby loss at Oregon in Week 1, the Broncos have torn through five opponents, beating all but one by double digits. Wash State's offense did awaken last week but it still ranks ahead of only eight FBS members for yards per game. The Cougars picked on FCS team Duquesne for its sole victory.

We are not buying the letdown theory. Sure, Tennessee just ambushed Alabama, but the Volunteers have fared poorly of late in Columbia and should not take the Gamecocks lightly. While the hosts are fresh off a bye and have dynamic QB LaNorris Sellers, UT simply wields a superior roster. The Vols have yielded just 11 touchdowns in seven outings and pace the SEC in sacks. Unflashy on offense, they’ve survived using two young QBs in part because of DeSean Bishop, the nation’s lone RB with 800 run yards and 10 TDs. No flash is needed against a mid-level SEC rival.

Oklahoma's upset of then-No. 1 Texas seems like an aberration. After mowing down lowly UTEP in Week 1, the Sooners have scored 10, 14, 13 and 13 against teams not nicknamed Longhorns. The defense has more than carried its weight, but it likely must cope with Missy State's biggest threats back from injury. QB Kamario Taylor and RB Fluff Bothwell sat out last week's humbling goose-egg game against LSU, while Bothwell also was done against Alabama the week before following one carry. They would resuscitate the attack, leaving the Bulldogs' defense with less of a burden against the Sooners' unscary offense.

UCLA is faring well with a reserve QB. Michigan State will deploy one as well, but these are not created equal. Third-stringer Kayd Coffman, a freshman, has yet to throw a college pass. The Bruins' Ty Dieffenbach jumped in for his first start last week and game-managed a win over Wisconsin. The Bruins have covered in every game, mostly when they were overlooked by oddsmakers. That is no longer an issue, which accounts for the large spread. Given Michigan State's OK defense, the number might have been too steep -- until the Sparntas had to dig deep into their depth chart for a QB.

Should iffy QB Jacurri Brown (ankle) not play, Rice will miss more than a passer. Brown is Rice's leding rusher by a substantial margin. A bum ankle would compromise him in all aspects. Backup Gael Ochoa has an ugly stat set of 11 pass attempts and three sacks. FAU has bookend losses to Florida and Army, both of whom ran roughshod over the defense. The offense has been no concern, with a 37th rank in FBS. It need not go ballistic against Rice, which averages a paltry 17 ppg (130th in FBS) with an experienced QB that it might not have.

N.C. State flies across the country for a 10:30 p.m. (ET) start -- and without a number of injured starters. Stanford has its own health issues but they are not nearly as worrisome as with the Wolfpack. The visitors are 0-2 SU on the road, while Stanford's 3-1 SU at home, with its only loss to No. 1 Miami. The Cardinal come off a stress-free cakewalk against Elon. Their defeats have been massacres but all against stiff competition. The 'Pack represents a step down. The spread has drifted above a TD, making it especially appealing.

How can we not love Air Force, a team that never fumbles? Amazing that the second-best rushing attack in FBS has not lost one all season. The Falcons are on a heater, having rushed for 439 and 430 yards the past two games. Wyoming’s 41 points scored last weekend was an aberration; until then, the Cowboys had not exceeded 27. Their run defense ranks 101st in FBS, which suggests Air Force will have extra-long possessions and continue to cling to the pigskin.

A stat from Army's trouncing of Florida Atlantic last weekend is jaw-dropping: 56 points scored with a single completion for all of two yards. The Black Knights' utterly imbalanced option offense piled up 479 ground yards—a concerning sign for Tulsa, which couldn't handle Navy’s similar attack two games ago. The Golden Hurricane rank No. 88 in FBS in yards yielded per carry and 123rd in ground yards allowed. The Black Knights play keepaway, hogging the ball for 34 1/2 minutes per game with few incompletion stoppages and rare turnovers (two all season). They should be favored in this spot.

QB Pop Watson took the snaps in UMass' first five games, all but one SU wins. Watson returns from an injury rehab after sitting out two losses. He boasts a 74 percent completition rate, with just three sacks and two interceptions, and averages 5.4 yards per carry. The Minutemen should throw him a coming-home party. UConn's three victories did not exactly trigger the popping of corks. The Huskies' conquests came against teams with a combined record of 5-14, and one hails from FCS. Overachieving UMass will be motivated to get within one win of bowl eligibility.

One team out-and-out celebrated its Sunday win. For the other, victory was bittersweet. Chicago dominated Atlanta for three-plus quarters as QB Caleb Williams showed no rust from his three-week layoff with a hamstring injury. The Bears exited the game in reasonably good health. Not so for New England with its W over the Jets. Three ailing offensive linemen called it a day early, and the short week makes their return iffy. There is no doubt about WR Romeo Doubs, who landed on injured reserve. While Pats QB Drake Maye made a run at MVP last season, Williams should be in the hunt this year if he stays off the sideline.

For a total flirting with the mid 50s, a game generally matches two weak defenses. While the Dallas D has been porous enough to almost allow this many points on its own. Green Bay's rates eighth. Its offense plays at a moderate pace, with a No. 24 ranking for average snaps per team. In fact, the Packers' offense was downright awful until last week. One performance does not establish a trend, so here's assuming the host will not take full advantage of a soft defense and keep the scoring at a reasonable pace.

Curiously, Bears QB Caleb Williams practiced all week but has not been declared the starter. as of Saturday. Perhaps Chicago is playing possum. A player sitting after a full week of practice is rare, so let's assume Williams returns from injury hiatus. His counterpart, Michael Penix Jr., is expected to soldier through with sore ribs. The Falcons are back to a matinee kickoff after three straight in prime time -- when RB Bijan Robinson excels. However, New Orleans held Robinson to an average of 49 yards per game in three encounters when current Chicago d-coordinator Dennis Allen operated in N'Awlins. Both defenses are rugged against the run, so here's trusting Williams more when teams are forced to throw.

It's a steep price to pay for the hook. What is projected as a low-to-moderate score could make the extra half-point a factor. QB Tyler Huntley, in for Lamar Jackson, might be a proven backup, but Browns coach Todd Monken knows him well, having been on the same side before. Baltimore’s 4-1 record slightly deceives. It has been blessed with an easy-peasy schedule, and three wins have been by one-score margins (including last week’s in overtime). In the underdog role, Cleveland has covered in seven of the last eight.