We cashed yesterday attacking a pitcher in this situation, saying we expected Triston McKenzie to pitch at least five innings with the Guardians playing three straight extra-innings games. He went seven, but the game went to extras again. So we're back recommending to take Allen to pitch into the sixth, even at plus odds. He's thrown 90-plus pitches in three straight starts and pitched into the sixth in three of his last five starts, so in normal circumstances I might say this number is still too skewed to the Under but not by as much as I am in this situation with Cleveland playing four straight extra-innings games.

These teams played a pitchers' duel yesterday and they just might get up to another today. Mitchell Parker has been surprisingly effective this season, with the Nationals winning all three of his starts, and he has the best xERA of anyone pitching today. While the Ranges have the better offense in this game, the Nats have been better against righties (.694 OPS) than the Rangers have against lefties (.682 OPS), so if these pitchers continue at their established levels than the Nats have a good chance of keeping this game close and potentially winning. My favorite play here is the F5 run line to take advantage of the pitching matchups.

The Mets send Adrian Houser to the mound today, a pitcher who hasn't struck out more batters than he's walked in any of his five starts this season. That's a problem against a Cubs lineup that ranks top 10 in walks per game. While the Cubs offense has largely been stymied in this series, I think that changes in this matchup. On the other side, Ben Brown has a strong 22:6 K:BB ratio this year and he's up against a Mets team that averages 4.27 runs per game but has scored four or fewer in nine of its last 10.

Kyle Bradish makes his season debut today against a Yankees lineup that has scored just four runs in three games against the Orioles in this series. On the other side, Carlos Rodon has delivered an excellent 2.48 ERA thus far but does not seem to be the same dominant pitcher of past years, and I wonder if there's a blowup performance in his near future against a good offense like Baltimore's. With Baltimore having the much better record in non one-run games (17-7 vs. 12-9) and being the home team, I would expect them to be favored here even with an injured ace making his first MLB start of the season.

The Guardians have played three straight extra-innings games, using six relievers for each of the last two. Even with an off-day sandwiched between, that's a lot of work for the bullpen, and they'll need Triston McKenzie to give them at least five innings today. The Astros have an above average offense but just played a pair of games in Mexico City and then followed an off-day with an extra-innings affair, and it's possible the schedule catches up to them today. Expect the Guardians to emphasize McKenzie throwing strikes to give them length in this matchup, which will help combat the primary reason for his short outings: a 6.95 BB/9 rate.

The Giants offense has been flailing of late, scoring no more than three runs in five straight games to bring their season scoring average down to 3.87 runs per game. Now they run up against a pitcher in Kutter Crawford who allowed two earned runs total in his first five starts before a more pedestrian showing in his last outing. I like him to bounce back in this matchup, and he's reached six Ks in four of six games, with one miss featuring a strong five-K performance in less than five innings. The Over should be favored here.

The A's offense has leveled up over the last three games, which for them still means averaging less than six runs in those wins. They've been able to push their per-game run total up over three, but this is still an offense I'm looking to fade at home against any pitcher with a pulse. Priester bounced back from an awful season debut with six shutout innings in San Francisco, getting back in line with his quality Triple-A beginning to the year. His trouble comes against lefties, but A's lefties are hitting just .210/.294/.341 vs. righties this year, so I'm not worried.