Jalen Brunson went 2 of 9 from beyond the arc in Game 1, including a couple misses that were halfway down. The volume should continue to be there due to Victor Wembanyama's presence inside. Brunson did not clear this prop total in any of the past five games, but he did it three out of four games vs. the 76ers. In the three regular-season meetings with San Antonio, Brunson hoisted 24 3-point tries, making 10. This is a matchup in which Brunson is more willing to let it fly.
After a rough start to the season, Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly is 4-0 with a 2.36 ERA over his last five starts. He gives Arizona the starting pitching edge over Washington lefty Foster Griffin, who has served up eight homers in his last five starts. The D-Backs lead the NL with a .785 OPS against southpaws. Look for the Nats, who have scored seven runs over the past three games, to drop their fourth straight.
Josh Hart finished plus-22 in the box score in Game 1 -- in only 27 minutes -- despite scoring just three points. His energy and hustle were obvious, as the 6-5 guard grabbed a whopping 15 rebounds. He has now collected 35 rebounds in the past three games. If Hart stays out of foul trouble, he should exceed 30 minutes and again be a force on the boards.
The A's go for the sweep at Wrigley on Thursday. While I like their chances, I'm isolating the first five innings behind JT Ginn. He owns a 2.08 ERA on the road, with batters hitting .145 against him. Shota Imanaga has a 4.57 ERA at home with eight homers allowed. Look for the Athletics to at least be tied through five.
Dylan Harper suffered an adductor injury in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. He looks fully healthy now and has cleared this prop total in five straight games. Coach Mitch Johnson is catching heat for benching Harper for De'Aaron Fox down the stretch of Game 1. The Spurs missed Harper's rebounding and playmaking. I'm expecting 30 minutes for the star rookie in a must-win Game 2. Look for Harper to grab five-plus rebounds for the 10th time in his last 12 playoff games.
Jalen Brunson has thrived in playoff series openers. This spring, he opened with 28 against the Hawks, 35 vs. the 76ers and 38 against the Cavaliers. While Stephon Castle is an elite point-of-attack defender and Victor Wembanyama will be lurking in the paint, Brunson has a dizzying array of moves and uncommon mid-range ability. Since late March, Brunson has played 35-plus minutes 16 times. He's cleared this prop total in 14 of those. Look for about 40 minutes from Brunson in Game 1.
The Tigers have lost Jack Flaherty's last eight starts. He is 0-2 with an 8.66 ERA versus the Rays. He also sports a 6.04 road ERA. Rays lefty Steven Matz got lit up last time out, but has a strong history against the Tigers. Look for Detroit to fall to 9-25 on the road.
Cam Schlittler (7-2, 1.50 ERA) has a great opportunity to notch his eighth win. Visiting Cleveland has not scored more than four runs in its last 12 games. The Yankees should grab a lead against Guardians lefty Joey Cantillo; they lead MLB with an .806 OPS against southpaws. The Guardians have never seen Schlittler, who has gone six-plus innings in seven of his last eight starts.
The Spurs had three days off to re-set after their epic Game 7 win in Oklahoma City. I still question whether they can muster the same focus and urgency they showed in dethroning the defending champs. Mitchell Robinson (finger) is expected to play; he and OG Anunoby will be critical to the Knicks' defense on Victor Wembanyama. New York won two of three regular-season meetings, losing by just two in San Antonio. While the Thunder (due to injury) lacked a second creator behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, New York can run its offense through Karl-Anthony Towns while letting Jalen Brunson play off the ball. I'm expecting Game 1 to come down to the wire, so I took the points.
Rockies lefty Kyle Freeland posted a 12.46 ERA in May, and on Monday he faces an Angels lineup that's above average (.712 OPS) versus southpaws. Colorado has lost Freeland's last seven starts. Jose Soriano hasn't been nearly as dominant as he was in April, but he's miles better than Freeland. The Rockies have won two of their last 12 road games, and Colorado used six pitchers in Sunday's 19-6 home loss to the Giants.
Jordan Wicks makes his second start of the season for the Cubs; the first was a disaster. A converted reliever, Wicks gave up eight earned runs on nine hits over 4.1 innings at Pittsburgh. In seven starts at AAA this season, Wicks posted a 4.44 ERA while allowing a 10.7 percent barrel rate. Back the hosts in the rubber game.
The Braves are 23-9 on the road, and I like their chances to sweep Cincinnati behind Spencer Strider. Atlanta has won all five of Strider's starts this season. Reds lefty Nick Lodolo was solid last time out, but in his first three starts he surrendered 12 earned runs on four homers and nine walks. Strider also has been vulnerable to the long ball, but he's been limiting baserunners (1.15 WHIP) to minimize the damage.
Ever since his 12-minute cameo in Game 1, Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein has cleared this prop total five straight times. That includes a pair of blowout losses in which the Thunder shot very poorly. Look for OKC to make more shots at home and for the underrated center to keep setting up his teammates.
After a scintillating Game 6 performance, I like 20-year-old rookie Dylan Harper to again be impactful in Game 7. He's a difference-maker who won't be awed by the moment. And given this is a winner-take-all game, Harper should play close to 30 minutes. In the only close game of the series, Harper played 47 minutes.
Aside from a bad start in Colorado, Braves pitcher Grant Holmes has been quite consistent. He fanned 10 last time out but Atlanta lost 2-0. Look for the MLB-best Braves to supply more run support Friday versus Chris Paddack (0-6, 6.86 ERA). Atlanta ranks second in OPS (.771) against right-handed pitching, and current Braves have homered six times vs. Paddack over 94 at-bats.