Larry's Picks (1 Live)
San Jose State has lost eight in a row, including an 87-54 thrashing in Reno against these same Wolf Pack. However, three of the Spartans' last four defeats have come by 10 or fewer points. In the first meeting on Jan. 20, San Jose State junior guard Colby Garland did not play. He has scored 21-plus points in four straight games, going 8 of 14 from deep, and averages 18.8 points and 4.2 assists this season. Nevada wins, but this is too many points.
Fresno State could be missing leading scorer Jake Heidbreder (17.5 ppg), who missed the previous game due to back spasms. Either way, I like the Bulldogs to rely on their defense and hang around. Fresno State holds opponents to 43.7 percent shooting from the floor and 28.9 percent from beyond the arc. Look for the Cowboys to win, but to fall to 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games.
The undefeated RedHawks have scored 90 in back-to-back games and should put up another big number here. While the market clearly expects Miami to stumble at some point soon, this spread is a little low. UMass lost the first meeting 86-84 despite shooting 51 percent overall and 43 percent from deep. The Minutemen foul too much and put opponents on the free-throw line at the MAC's highest rate. That could prove decisive down the stretch, as the RedHawks stay perfect.
The Lumberjacks won the first meeting 69-60, but it wasn't easy. Texas A&M Corpus Christi led by nine at halftime. Ultimately, the difference was Stephen F. Austin shooting 50 percent from deep compared to 25 percent for the Islanders. SFA enters on an 11-game win streak, but many of those victories were close. The Islanders, who played SMU, Kansas, Oklahoma State and Xavier in non-conference play, are coming off a convincing win over Lamar in which they had 15 assists and only seven turnovers. They should keep this close throughout.
Alabama State is far from a good team, but Mississippi Valley State is arguably the nation's worst. The Hornets won the first meeting by 20 and have covered three straight against the Delta Devils, winning by 20, 23 and 29. Alabama State is coming off an 18-point win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, which is tied for second in the SWAC. Lay the points.
Dayton enters on an 0-6 ATS skid and shouldn’t be laying this many points. While Davidson is 0-8 at Daytona since joining the Atlantic 10, these Wildcats match up well. They turn it over only 10.5 times per game, which is critical versus the Flyers’ aggressive, steal-happy defense. Look for a game that goes down to the wire and grab the points.
The Phoenix have won and covered three straight, while the Panthers have lost four of five and 11 of 14. Home court matters, but I still like senior guard Justin Allen and Green Bay getting a couple points. He’s coming off a 34-point outburst and had 21 in the first meeting, a three-point Phoenix win.
The Aztecs have won nine straight home games overall, and they're 13-0 all-time versus Nevada at Viejas Arena. Defensive anchor Magoon Gwath is expected to return from injury for San Diego State. The Wolf Pack's Corey Camper Jr. (17.7 ppg) was held to eight points in the first meeting, a 73-68 SDSU win in Reno. San Diego State's defense should be the difference Saturday. Back the Aztecs to cover for the fourth straight time in this series.
Georgia's only win in its last five games came against lowly LSU. The Sooners are better than their record and are fully rested after knocking off Vanderbilt 92-91 in Nashville last Saturday. Bulldogs guard Jeremiah Wilkinson (17.1 ppg) missed the loss to Florida and continues to deal with shoulder soreness. He is not certain to return Saturday.
Texas A&M has lost three in a row, but two of those were by three or fewer points. The Aggies boast a balanced attack that can keep pace with Vanderbilt's prolific offense. Texas A&M should have an edge on the glass, providing a few extra possessions to help keep this close.
Quinnipiac (10-5 MAAC) leads the MAAC in scoring and has won three straight entering this crucial conference game at Siena (10-4 MAAC). Siena has won six of seven, but the Saints could struggle offensively against a Quinnipiac team holding opponents to 42.5 percent from the field. The Bobcats also have won four of the past five meetings. Look for reigning MAC Player of the Year Amaari Monroe (15.6 ppg, 8.2 rpg, 2.3 apg) to at least keep Quinnipiac close.
The Tritons have gone 1-4 SU and ATS over their last five games and shouldn't be laying this big of a number. UC Davis has won four of five and just held Cal Poly to 58 points on 32 percent shooting. Aggies freshman Marcus Wilson is coming off back-to-back outings with 24 points, shooting 16 of 30 in those games. He also dished out nine assists and grabbed 10 rebounds. Back UC Davis to keep this tight.
Belmont saw its nine-game win streak snapped in an OT loss at Bradley, and now the Bruins return home to face a Northern Iowa team they dismantled by 13 in Cedar Falls. But Northern Iowa is playing much better now. The Panthers just destroyed Murray State, the MVC's second-place team, 89-60 on the road, for their third straight win. None of Northern Iowa's last four opponents has scored more than 60 points. While the Bruins are highly efficient offensively, the Panthers hold opponents to 26.5 percent from deep. Northern Iowa has been an underdog six times this season. The Panthers have covered five of those -- the miss coming by 1.5 points at Bradley -- and beaten market expectations by an average of 8.2 points.
After back-to-back heartbreaking losses, FDU has notched two straight home wins and is back in Hackensack, N.J., looking for a third. Senior forward Taeshaud Jackson has elevated his game lately, scoring 14-plus points in five straight and registering double-digit rebounds in three of those five. He is 14 of 15 from the foul line in that span. St. Francis won the first meeting, 85-82, in Loretto, Pa. But the Red Flash enter this matchup on a four-game skid, having just lost to lowly Chicago State. Lay the points.