Robbie Ray aims to make a good first impression with the Padres, hoping to continue a stretch in which he's 7-0 in his last 12 appearances. He posted a 2.00 ERA in July and a 1.36 ERA in June. The Astros rank 17th in OPS against lefties. The Padres' offense has picked up lately. While it's not on Houston's level, the pitching edge makes this price attractive.

The Panthers are coming off a division title, and they've already suffered several significant injuries in training camp. Expect Dave Canales, who is 0-6 ATS in preseason games, to prioritize health. Kenny Pickett will start for the Panthers, then undrafted free-agent Haynes King will make some plays with his arm and legs. But the Cardinals have the edge with Carson Beck starting. The third-round pick, who led Miami to the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship Game, struggled early in camp but turned a corner recently. His backup, Kedon Slovis, has extensive preseason experience. New coach Mike LaFleur has set an intense tone in camp. This game means more to the upstart Cardinals.

Mariners starter Bryce Miller is 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA in four career appearances against Detroit. That includes a June 6 start in which he fanned nine and allowed one hit over six innings. Tigers starter Framber Valdez is 2-4 with a 4.68 ERA on the road, walking 25 batters in 65.1 innings. Back the Mariners in the rubber game.

This will be Hayden Wesneski's second start since returning from Tommy John surgery. He did OK in his 2026 debut, allowing three earned runs in 5.2 innings vs. the Angels. However, he gave up seven hits and two walks. Blue Jays starter Trey Yesavage has a good chance to hold down Houston's righty-heavy lineup; his K rate goes up and his walk rate goes down against righties, who are batting .180 against him. On June 24, Yesavage held the Astros to one run on two hits over 5.2 innings. Look for Toronto to at least be tied through five.

Michael Lorenzen, 34, remains one of MLB's worst pitchers. At Coors Field, he's 1-4 with an 8.34 ERA in 10 starts. He ranks near the bottom in a slew of advanced metrics. On Monday he faces a frustrated Rays lineup that has scored 14 runs in its last eight games, including just three in a weekend series against the White Sox. Current Rays' batters own a 1.079 OPS against Lorenzen. Whether Ian Seymour (2 runs allowed in his last 10.2 innings, 0.91 WHIP over his last seven outings) starts or follows an opener, I like the Rays to lead after five.

The Brewers are 36-20 at home, and I like their chances of jumping on Bubba Chandler and the Pirates’ pen. He sports a 1.41 WHIP and struggles with command. On July 11 vs. the Brewers, Chandler walked three and needed 97 pitches to complete 4.2 innings. Several Milwaukee batters have a good, albeit brief history against Chandler. I would not play this higher than -145.

For all of their superstar talent, the Dodgers have not been crushing lefties lately. On Sunday they face southpaw Jake Bennett. He posted a 2.20 ERA in July after posting a 2.78 ERA in June. Back Boston on the run line in the first five.

The Tigers put up 21 runs in winning the first two games of this series, and I expect them to keep hitting and sweep. Athletics lefty Gage Jump is 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA at home. While he pitched well last time out at Boston, Jump walked four batters for the second consecutive start. Tigers starter Keider Montero posted a 3.18 ERA over seven July appearances. Look for Detroit, which has scored 44 runs in its past four games, to respond to the Tarik Skubal trade with a fourth win in five games.

The Rays are 40-16 at home and have the starting pitching edge with Nick Martinez opposing Erick Fedde. In two starts since the All-Star Break, the 33-year-old Fedde served up four homers in a total of 8.1 innings. The White Sox are 23-30 on the road. This is a good price on the first-place Rays.

The Nats' Jake Irvin will pitch in the majors for the first time in over two months. He went on the 60-day injured list due to a shoulder strain. Irvin looked sharp in his minor-league rehab, fanning 12 batters over 11.1 innings. Before going down with the injury, Irvin had posted a career-high 25.4 percent strikeout rate. In fact, he struck out seven Braves in his last MLB start, on May 23. He has registered at least four strikeouts in 10 of 11 starts this season. While Irvin likely will be limited to 75 or so pitches, that should be enough. The Braves have struck out the fifth-most times over the past 30 days (while hitting the second-most homers).

The Mets are a respectable 6-6 since the All-Star break after taking two of three from the Braves. These teams have played six times, the home team winning all six. Mets rookie Nolan McLean has electric stuff and a 1.50 ERA this month. While Miami's Eury Perez also has been brilliant lately, historically he has been much less effective on the road. The Marlins are 21-31 on the road. Over the past 15 days, the Mets own a .731 OPS compared to the Marlins' .673.

Angels starter Grayson Rodriguez has given up three homers and 11 earned runs in his last two starts, covering eight innings. For the season he has a 1.79 WHIP. The Angels have lost 17 of 23, including the first two in this series to Houston. The Astros have won seven of eight and could get a lift from the return of starting pitcher Hayden Wesneski. Lay the reasonable price.

Cubs lefty Matthew Boyd is 4-0 with a 2.31 ERA in six starts since returning from injury. Chicago has scored 35 runs in its past four games and leads MLB with an .874 OPS over the past seven days. St. Lous has dropped nine of 11 and has scored three or fewer runs eight times in that stretch. Even with Dustin May pitching well in three of his last four starts, I'll back the visitors and their stacked lineup.

Bubba Chandler was brilliant last time out, tossing 6.1 scoreless innings vs. the Yankees. I like his matchup with the visiting Diamondbacks. While Brandon Pfaadt has been a revelation since returning from the minors, this is a difficult matchup. He pitches to a ton of contact and the Pirates’ offense should take advantage.

Cards lefty Matthew Liberatore got rocked last time out vs. the Angels. For the season, he’s allowed a 43 percent hard-hit rate and an expected slugging percentage of .462. Look for the Cubs to hand St. Louis its eighth loss in 10 games.