Larry's Picks (1 Live)
The Guardians imploded with a late error in Tuesday's loss at St. Louis, but I like them to bounce back and win the rubber game. Cards starter Dustin May was shelled in his first two starts before shutting down the Red Sox last time out. For the season, he has given up a whopping 53.2 percent hard-hit rate. Slade Cecconi also has been bad in two of his three starts, but this is a nice price on the better overall team.
Jalen Green sat out the final two regular-season games with a knee injury, and he played just four minutes last Wednesday vs. Dallas. But he's off the injury report and should see 30-plus minutes in this play-in game vs. Portland. In games with three or more days' rest, Green has averaged 19.6 points in just 22 minutes of action. He shot 47.7 percent from the field and 40 percent from deep. With Jrue Holiday expected to primarily guard Devin Booker, Green will be tasked with handling a lot of the scoring load.
Tyler Herro sat out Friday with foot soreness and then played just 22 minutes in Sunday's rout of the Hawks. Miami was saving Herro for Tuesday's play-in game at Charlotte. Herro put up 33 points and 20 points in two meetings with the Hornets last month, going 9 of 12 from deep and 12 of 12 from the foul line combined. The Heat will need a huge game from Herro to pull off the upset, so I'm betting on Erik Spoelstra giving Herro 35-plus minutes.
The Pirates are probably glad they didn't trade Mitch Keller, as the 30-year-old is off to a dominant start. With increased use of a changeup, Keller sports a 1.00 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. Pittsburgh should have success against struggling Miles Mikolas (12.41 ERA) and an already-depleted Washington bullpen. Back the Pirates, who are 9-3 in their last 12 games, on the run line.
Look for the Dodgers to bounce back from Sunday's loss and get to Mets lefty David Peterson. The 2025 All-Star posted an 8.42 ERA over his last nine starts of last season, and so far in 2026 he owns a 6.14 ERA over three starts. The Mets desperately miss Juan Soto (calf). They have scored a total of nine runs during their current five-game skid.
Bucks forward Ousmane Dieng is making his case to be Milwaukee's starting small forward of the future. The 2022 lottery pick has shown terrific passing skills, part of an all-around game that's blossoming with major minutes. Milwaukee is so short-handed for this regular-season finale, I expect Dieng to play at least 30 minutes and possibly close to 40.
The Angels have won all three of Jose Soriano's starts, which is no surprise given his 0.45 ERA and 0.65 WHIP. Soriano's dominance appears to be sustainable given his increased velocity and improved knuckle-curve. Andrew Abbott has been solid for the host Reds. But the Halos' offense has performed better lately, ranking 10th in OPS over the past seven days compared to Cincy's 21st ranking. Take the Angels in Sunday's rubber game.
With Portland vying for the No. 8 seed and currently sitting one game behind the Clippers, expect another huge workload for Deni Avdija. He has played 37, 40 and 38 minutes this month. Avdija has faced the Clippers three times this season, racking up seven, nine and 11 boards. The 11-rebound performance came March 31 in LA. Look for Avdija to grab seven-plus rebounds for the fifth time in his last seven games.
Paolo Banchero has cleared this prop total just once in the past five games. But this is a terrific matchup against the short-handed Bulls, who play at a fast pace. Banchero should play a ton of minutes with Orlando just one game out of the No. 6 seed. I like Banchero to grab at least nine boards at plus money.
The Marlins have been hammering right-handed pitching, and I like them to at least be tied through five innings versus Tigers starter Keider Montero. Detroit has lost five straight and nine of 11. The Tigers also just lost CF Parker Meadows to a concussion. Back the Marlins in the first five.
Jayson Tatum has scored 23-plus points in five straight games, including a 32-point outburst at Charlotte on March 29. Boston is close to clinching the No. 2 seed so the motivation is there for the Celtics to go all-out. This profiles as a competitive game, so we should get 30-35 minutes from Tatum.
Dan Hurley is 11-0 ATS from the Sweet 16 onward, but this is not a good matchup for UConn. The Huskies' top player in this run, 6-11 Tarris Reed Jr., will face a towering Michigan front line. The Wolverines have been so good in the NCAA Tournament (five wins by 13-plus points), they are reminding people of Hurley's 2024 team that won every March Madness game by at least 14 points. Look for Elliot Cadeau to play a lot better than he did in the semis (5 for 17, six turnovers) as Michigan pulls away late and covers its fifth straight.
Jarrett Allen has been highly efficient in three games since returning from injury. He’s had plenty of rest in advance of this plus-matchup with the depleted Grizzlies. And his minutes have steadily increased. Back Allen for at least 24 points and rebounds.
Atlanta has won 13 straight home games and is 18-2 SU in its last 20 games overall, with 16 of those wins by double digits. The Knicks have lost their last five games to teams above .500, and New York is just 21-19 SU on the road. Both teams are healthy. But the Hawks arguably have more to play for as they try to avoid the play-in tournament. You could argue the Knicks, currently the No. 3 seed, would benefit from dropping to the fourth seed so they could avoid Boston in the conference semis. Not that New York won't go all-out, but we've already heard Mike Brown say he wants to keep some wrinkles hidden from potential playoff opponents. Red-hot Atlanta is among them.