The Mariners have won 11 of their last 14 games, and I like them to stay hot despite George Kirby's recent struggles. Kirby dominated in his last start in Baltimore, last August, when he tossed seven scoreless innings with seven strikeouts and no walks. Orioles starter Brandon Young is 4-1 with a 3.47 ERA, and the team has won his last six starts. But advanced metrics show he's been fortunate. Back the visitors.
De'Aaron Fox has shot poorly in two of three games in this series, but he ended Game 3 on a high note, nailing the mid-range jumper that helped seal the Spurs' win. The Knicks are giving him great looks, both in the mid-range and from beyond the arc. With Stephon Castle having a big scoring performance in Game 3, look for Fox to pick up the scoring load in Game 4.
Mikal Bridges was a virtual no-show in Game 3, scoring two points in 29 minutes. That's unlikely to repeat itself. The Knicks watched Jalen Brunson dribble too much in the loss, and coaches and players have stressed the need for better ball movement and cutting. Bridges is the Knicks' best cutter. Look for Bridges to be more involved and impactful as he clears this prop total for the 11th time in the past 13 games.
Rookie star Dylan Harper has grabbed six-plus rebounds in six straight games. He finished with nine boards in 32 minutes Monday, the second straight game in which he played 32 minutes. His leaping ability and quickness were on full display. I would also go Over 6.5 at plus money.
Atlanta has won its last five series openers, and I like the Braves' chances to cover this run line at plus-money. The Braves rank second in OPS (.764) versus right-handed pitching. That should spell trouble for 33-year-old White Sox bulk reliever Erick Fedde. He has a bottom-3 percent strikeout rate and has served up 10 homers in his last seven starts. Current Braves own an .835 OPS against him. Fedde has made 12 appearances (11 starts) against the Braves in his career, going 0-6 with a 9.59 ERA.
Grayson Rodriguez missed nearly two years with injuries before returning in mid-May. Only one of his four starts has gone well. He's giving up a 50 percent hard-hit rate with an expected slugging percentage of .567. Houston's Spencer Arrighetti struggled last time out vs. the Pirates, but before that he had gone six straight starts allowing one or zero runs. Look for Houston, coming off a shutout loss Sunday, to lead after five.
Jalen Brunson has failed to clear this prop total in six straight games. But the volume continues to be there against the Spurs, as he hoisted nine 3-point attempts in Game 1 and eight more in Game 2. In three regular-season meetings with San Antonio, Brunson averaged eight 3-point attempts. Brunson shoots better from beyond the arc at MSG and I like the nice plus-money on him to make three treys in Game 3.
Dylan Harper has arguably been the best of the Spurs' top three guards in this series. His minutes went from 28 in Game 1 to 32 on Friday; he finished a team-best plus-12 in the 105-104 loss. Stephon Castle tweaked his ankle in the fourth quarter of Game 2 and shot 5 of 14, though he continued to play excellent defense on Jalen Brunson. The Spurs can't afford to play all three guards at once given the Knicks' size on the wings, and so far the best pairing has been Harper and De'Aaron Fox. Look for Harper, who grew up in New Jersey as a diehard Knicks fan, to play 30-plus minutes and clear this combo line for the fifth straight time.
The host Rangers have a starting pitching edge in Sunday's rubber game, with Jacob deGrom facing Cleveland's Joey Cantillo. Texas' veteran ace has fanned 14 while allowing two runs over his past two starts, covering 11 innings; Cantillo has surrendered eight runs over his past two starts, covering six innings. Cantillo's big issue is control: 14 walks in his last 16.2 innings. Look for Texas to lead after five.
Jalen Brunson went 2 of 9 from beyond the arc in Game 1, including a couple misses that were halfway down. The volume should continue to be there due to Victor Wembanyama's presence inside. Brunson did not clear this prop total in any of the past five games, but he did it three out of four games vs. the 76ers. In the three regular-season meetings with San Antonio, Brunson hoisted 24 3-point tries, making 10. This is a matchup in which Brunson is more willing to let it fly.
After a rough start to the season, Diamondbacks pitcher Merrill Kelly is 4-0 with a 2.36 ERA over his last five starts. He gives Arizona the starting pitching edge over Washington lefty Foster Griffin, who has served up eight homers in his last five starts. The D-Backs lead the NL with a .785 OPS against southpaws. Look for the Nats, who have scored seven runs over the past three games, to drop their fourth straight.
Josh Hart finished plus-22 in the box score in Game 1 -- in only 27 minutes -- despite scoring just three points. His energy and hustle were obvious, as the 6-5 guard grabbed a whopping 15 rebounds. He has now collected 35 rebounds in the past three games. If Hart stays out of foul trouble, he should exceed 30 minutes and again be a force on the boards.
The A's go for the sweep at Wrigley on Thursday. While I like their chances, I'm isolating the first five innings behind JT Ginn. He owns a 2.08 ERA on the road, with batters hitting .145 against him. Shota Imanaga has a 4.57 ERA at home with eight homers allowed. Look for the Athletics to at least be tied through five.
Dylan Harper suffered an adductor injury in Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals. He looks fully healthy now and has cleared this prop total in five straight games. Coach Mitch Johnson is catching heat for benching Harper for De'Aaron Fox down the stretch of Game 1. The Spurs missed Harper's rebounding and playmaking. I'm expecting 30 minutes for the star rookie in a must-win Game 2. Look for Harper to grab five-plus rebounds for the 10th time in his last 12 playoff games.
Jalen Brunson has thrived in playoff series openers. This spring, he opened with 28 against the Hawks, 35 vs. the 76ers and 38 against the Cavaliers. While Stephon Castle is an elite point-of-attack defender and Victor Wembanyama will be lurking in the paint, Brunson has a dizzying array of moves and uncommon mid-range ability. Since late March, Brunson has played 35-plus minutes 16 times. He's cleared this prop total in 14 of those. Look for about 40 minutes from Brunson in Game 1.