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In the end, it might all come down to Notre Dame.
Not just for its future, but for that of about 30-some odd schools wondering which way, not if, the Big East is going to break.
Yes, Mike Traghese is currently in Florida trying to convince his league to stick together, compromise and work something out. But no matter the public comments of "good discussions" coming out of the league meeting, and no matter the mounting questions about just what bill of goods Miami is about to buy, it's going to take a magical political effort to make that happen.
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| Thanks to its television deal, Notre Dame earns millions for just its home football games.(AP) |
We won't write a premature obit, but for argument's sake -- and there is plenty of arguing being done -- what's next for the venerable league, which was originally almost exclusively big city, East Coast Catholic schools?
Which brings us back to the nation's most famous Catholic school, which just happens to be located in a small town in the middle of a big Indiana cornfield.
The Irish are in the catbird's seat when it comes to any and all expansion talk.
ND's powerful and profitable football program is an independent. Basically, all of its other sports are in the Big East. Joining the league in 1995 has been a boon for the school. Men's basketball has returned to national prominence. Women's basketball has captured a national title.
Football, at least now that Ty Willingham has awakened the echoes, appears back in national contention.
So what do the Irish do? Join the Big Ten, which may offer membership again, even after being rebuffed in 1999? Does it join a Big East for all sports and allow Boston College, Syracuse and maybe Miami to stay? Or does it remain an independent in football and choose a side in what would certainly be a messy divorce in the Big East.
Right now, 15 schools have some claim of membership to the Big East. But Temple, which plays only football, is not a full member and will end its association with the league after the 2004 season. The other 14, including ND, are full members.
If Miami, Syracuse and Boston College split, the league will be at a crossroads with 11 schools remaining. Although an effort to find replacements will be made, coming up with suitable choices to both sides, while possible, is highly unlikely, league sources said.
That will probably split the league for good. The battle line is obvious, five on each side:
Football: Connecticut, Rutgers, Pittsburgh, Virginia Tech, West Virginia.
Basketball: Georgetown, Providence, St. John's, Seton Hall, Villanova.
And that leaves Notre Dame. Which could decide everything.
Forget half of what you read out of the early days of the Big East meetings. That was when only the football schools were in Florida, which means all the spin about kicking the Catholic schools out of the league was one-sided.
Administrators at three of the five basketball playing Catholic schools have told SportsLine.com they are adamant that they aren't leaving the league, and if there is a split, the main goal is to keep the Big East name, automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament and history. That includes its television contracts (Big Monday), its men's basketball conference championship tournament in Madison Square Garden and its record book.
The Big East name has value. Real value. And those five schools, all original founding members, will wage a holy war before giving it up. Especially against expansion schools such as Virginia Tech and West Virginia, which hardly ever seemed East, let alone Big East.
"We aren't going quietly," promised an athletic director at one of the Catholic schools. "Actually, put it this way. We aren't going anywhere."
So brace yourself for a fight. In a day and age where you can't eat an Oreo without litigation, that means lawyers and lawsuits. And Notre Dame is the key witness/ally/determining vote.
NCAA by-laws state that when conferences break up or are formed, any group of six schools that have been together at least five years can maintain a league's automatic NCAA berth. This should be the central argument and most germane in litigation.
If Notre Dame goes with the football schools -- even if it remains a football independent -- then those schools should get the Big East name. If it goes with the basketball schools, then the case will go that way.
Either way, Notre Dame should be playing in the Big East in 2005. Ironically, no other school has such a guarantee. The Irish, in a sense, will get to choose all the other members.
As for ND joining any conference in all sports, forget it. The ACC, the most lucrative per-school conference in the country, dished out $9.8 million to each institution last year. It's good money, but not by Irish standards.
Notre Dame makes a reported $7 million per year from NBC on its exclusive television contract. That's the home games. All road games are on either ABC or ESPN, so count some additional revenue there. When it goes to a bowl game, including a $13-million plus BCS game, it gets to keep all the money, not divvy it up with conference members.
Unless people in South Bend think the Irish are suddenly going to be bad (and they think the opposite), joining a conference makes no financial sense. In a great season, ND could pull in $20 million. In Willingham's first year, they were one victory away from just that.
That doesn't even count the basketball revenue from television, conference and NCAA tournaments.
About the only risk is if the BCS committee decides to pull Notre Dame's automatic bid to the series after 2005. But that will happen at the risk of angering television executives, so don't count on it.
All signs point to the Irish staying put. So which Big East will it choose?
Even if there weren't religious ties, Notre Dame would be best served with its Catholic brethren in a new, expanded Big East Conference.
The Catholic schools provide the best entry into the major media, recruiting markets and alumni bases in the East, which is the point. Stay Catholic and ND will play in New York, Philadelphia, Washington D.C., Providence and North Jersey (even before expansion). The conference tourney will be in Madison Square Garden.
The football schools -- with outposts in Southwest Virginia, West Virginia and rural Connecticut -- can't match that. It's not even close and will get worse when the football side expands to the South.
If the split happens, expect ND to go with the Catholic schools. The now-six members will make a claim on the Big East name and tradition. NCAA rules point to those schools winning the battle. A court of law might disagree, but that group would appear to have the stronger case -- 6 vs. 5.
The five football schools will have to find a new name.
The Catholic schools will immediately look to expand, and although religious affiliation will be important, geography and a commitment to basketball first will be the most important factors in finding new members, administrative sources say.
"It's the Big East," said one source. "When we forgot that was when we got in trouble."
The five most likely expansion candidates are Dayton, DePaul, Marquette, Massachusetts and Xavier. Four are Catholic schools in big cities. UMass provides Providence a New England rival, and a bus trip for road games for not just the Friars but St. John's and Seton Hall. It also gives the league an entrée back into the Boston TV market, where UMass has more alumni than any other school, BC included.
The question will be how big does the Big East want to get? Nine teams? Ten? Twelve?
Other possible expansion teams include Saint Louis and Richmond. Rhode Island, Saint Joseph's and Temple all will make a play to get in but will have to overcome the concerns of Providence and Villanova, who may not want to share their state or city.
But some group of the above looks like the New/Old Big East. A basketball first, largely big city league that makes television executives salivate. For the five Catholic schools, it is a conference that actually makes more sense (no more Blacksburg) than the current Big East.
As for the remaining football five, this will be tricky. There is no guaranteed BCS slot. There is no automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. There is no Big East name.
Expansion will push deep into the Midwest and South with Conference USA members Cincinnati, East Carolina, Louisville, Memphis and South Florida as potential members.
The Atlantic 10, C-USA and others will react accordingly.
Time will tell. Politics too. And probably, inevitably, a court of law.
But first Notre Dame will choose. If there is a breakup, whoever the Irish cast their lot with stands to be the big winner in the post-divorce proceedings.
And you thought some people hated Notre Dame now.