 |
 |
 |
|
DETROIT -- Upsets follow me. Or I follow them. Whatever the case, strange games happen under my watch in the NCAA tournament -- including George Mason's run in 2006, and Davidson's run this season -- which leads me to the Sweet 16 here in Detroit. If things fall the right way Friday night, the biggest upset of this Sweet 16 would take place right before my eyes.
No, not Davidson over Wisconsin. Not that Davidson can't beat Wisconsin. Davidson can, and if Davidson does, it wouldn't be much of an upset.
|
|
| Coach Jay Wright will either coach a historic win, or wince while his team is drubbed. (Getty Images) |
Villanova over Kansas would be the biggest upset in the Sweet 16, bigger than anything else that might happen Thursday or Friday.
To answer your question: Yes, Villanova over Kansas would be a bigger upset than Western Kentucky over UCLA. Look at that game for a second. Two of UCLA's top players -- Josh Shipp (strep throat) and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (ankle) -- haven't been full strength and aren't sure to be 100 percent for this game. And UCLA didn't look particularly good in the second round against Texas A&M. UCLA is vulnerable, and Western Kentucky is 29-6 and vicious.
To answer another question: No, I'm not predicting Western Kentucky will beat UCLA. Do not put those words, or anything else please, into my mouth. But a Western Kentucky victory over UCLA wouldn't be as shocking as Villanova over Kansas.
Nothing against Villanova. Nothing much, anyway. The Wildcats have had a nice run to get to the Sweet 16, but nothing they've done in the past two games suggests they are capable of beating Kansas. They've beaten Clemson and Siena, and most years that will put you into the championship game of the Puerto Rico Holiday Classic. This year, it put Villanova into the Sweet 16.
Which is fine. Someone has to fill out the Sweet 16, and it might as well be Villanova. Villanova's players have all kinds of heart, as they showed in their 18-point rally against Clemson, and coach Jay Wright has done an incredible rebuilding job -- twice. First he inherited Steve Lappas' depressed program as the Big East was ballooning to 16 schools and made it into a monster, and now he is doing it all over again after losing so many great wing players (Randy Foye, Allan Ray, Curtis Sumpter, Kyle Lowry, Mike Nardi) in a two-year period.
Villanova fans should be proud of what their team has accomplished. But they should be realistic about the Kansas game. In the NCAA tournament, it's all about the matchups, and Kansas is a terrible matchup for Villanova.
Villanova is too small. Without injured center Casiem Drummond (ankle), the Wildcats' biggest players are 6-foot-8, 230-pound forwards Dante Cunningham and Antonio Pena. That's not going to get it done against a Kansas frontcourt that starts 6-9 athletic freak Darrell Arthur and 6-8, 250-pound Darnell Jackson and brings 6-11 Sasha Kaun and 6-11 Cole Aldrich off the bench. There's a reason the Jayhawks are sixth nationally in rebounding margin and 10th in blocked shots, and that reason is this: The Jayhawks are huge.
Villanova is too careless with the ball. The Wildcats were 11th in the Big East in turnovers at 14.4 per game, and while some of the plodding teams in that conference couldn't capitalize, Kansas won't have that problem. The Jayhawks typically have two point guards on the floor at all times, and everyone can run and finish. This is an opportunistic team that led the Big 12 with nearly nine steals per game and is second nationally in assists.
Villanova is too young. The deeper the NCAA tournament gets, the more crucial the experience advantage -- and Kansas has a big one over the Wildcats. Villanova plays five guards: three freshmen and two sophomores. Sophomore Scottie Reynolds shouldn't have a problem, but it's asking a lot of Villanova freshmen Corey Stokes, Corey Fisher and Malcolm Grant to maintain their composure against a Kansas backcourt led by senior Russell Robinson, juniors Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush and sophomore Sherron Collins. Robinson and Chalmers are particularly pesky, ranking first and third in the Big 12 in steals per game.
Villanova's Wright understands the size of the task in front of his team.
"They're an outstanding basketball team that plays the game -- every aspect of the game -- extremely well," he said of Kansas. "Great team defense. Great inside game. Outstanding guard play. Very effective in transition. Very unselfish. The guys that come off the bench could be starters on teams in this Sweet 16."
Kansas has an almost cruel collection of talent, and at times maybe cruel is the applicable word. The Jayhawks beat 10 teams, including eventual NCAA tournament team Oklahoma, by 30 points. They beat Texas Tech by 58. They're too good for most of the teams still playing in this tournament -- especially a Villanova team that lost 12 times this season, including seven losses of 10 points or more.
Next year should be beautiful for Villanova, which has no seniors on its roster. The next game, though, could be ugly.
