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You've read Gary Parrish's Bracket
Projections, now here's how CBSSports.com college basketball producer Brian De Los Santos assesses the
resumés of teams that may be sweating it out until Selection Sunday.
Teams that should be safe (57):
ACC (4): *North Carolina, Clemson, Duke, Miami
Atlantic 10 (2): *Temple, Xavier
Big 12 (4): *Kansas, Texas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Big East (7): *Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Georgetown, Louisville, Marquette, Notre Dame, West Virginia
Big Ten (4): *Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan State, Purdue
Mountain West (2): *UNLV, BYU
Pac-10 (4): *UCLA, Stanford, USC, Washington State
SEC (5): *Georgia, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State, Arkansas
West Coast (3): *San Diego, St. Mary's, Gonzaga
Others (22): *Memphis (C-USA), *Butler (Horizon), *Drake (Missouri Valley), *Cornell (Ivy
League), *Winthrop (Big South), *Austin Peay (Ohio Valley), *Belmont (Atlantic Sun), *George Mason (Colonial), *Siena (MAAC), *Davidson (Southern),
*Oral Roberts (Summit), *Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), *Mount St. Mary's (Northeast), *Portland State (Big Sky), *American (Patriot), *UMBC (America East), *Kent State (MAC), *Mississippi Valley State (SWAC), *Coppin State (MEAC), *Boise State (WAC), *CS Fullerton (Big West), *Texas-Arlington (Southland)
* -- denotes automatic bid
If all our "safe" teams are indeed locks, that would leave 8 spots up for grabs. There are 20 teams currently on our
bubble list.
Last updated: March 16, 5:40 p.m. ET
Leading contenders ...
| Kentucky |
 |
| Record |
| 18-12, 12-4 SEC |
| Pros |
| An SOS in the top 15. An RPI hovering around the top 50. Winners of 11 of their final 14 games. 12 wins in SEC play. Wins
of note: Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi and Florida. |
| Cons |
| All their top victories came at home. A dismal out-of-conference mark that included a loss to Gardner-Webb. A 4-6 record vs. the RPI top 50 and 5-11 against the top 100. |
| Outlook |
| Who knows what to make of the Wildcats? The selection committee may take into consideration they were adjusting to
a new coach and injury issues early in the season. They could have used at least one win in the SEC Tournament as a loss to Georgia isn't a good way to leave a last impression, but 12 SEC victories -- including wins over Tennessee and Vanderbilt -- are a good selling point. |
| Last game |
lost to Georgia 60-56 OT
(SEC quarterfinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| South Alabama |
 |
| Record |
| 26-6, 16-2 Sun Belt |
| Pros |
| An RPI in the top 40. A 9-5 record in road/neutral site games. A 3-2 record vs. the RPI top 50, 4-3 vs. the RPI top 100. Close
losses to Vanderbilt (91-88, 2OT) and Mississippi (81-78). Wins of note: Mississippi State, San Diego, swept Western Kentucky. |
| Cons |
| An SOS in the triple digits. Three losses to teams outside the RPI top 100 -- including Middle Tennessee twice. |
| Outlook |
|
Some teams just have your number and that was the case for the South Alabama against Middle Tennessee. The Jaguars have solid credentials
for a non-major so they may just survive their Sun Belt semifinal loss to reach the NCAA Tournament.
|
| Last game |
lost to Middle Tenn. 82-73
(Sun Belt semifinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| Saint
Joseph's |
 |
| Record |
| 21-12, 9-7 Atlantic 10 |
| Pros |
| An RPI hovering around the top 50. A 13-7 record in road/neutral games. Wins of note: Xavier (twice), Villanova, Temple and swept
UMass. |
| Cons |
| Weak non-conference strength of schedule. Losses to four teams outside the RPI top 100, including Holy Cross and La
Salle. |
| Outlook |
| With a pair of victories over Xavier in the past two weeks, the selection committee may just overlook those four bad losses on the Hawks' resumé. Victories over fellow bubble teams UMass and Villanova should also help their cause. |
| Last game |
lost to Temple 69-64
(A-10 championship) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| Kansas State |
 |
| Record |
| 20-11, 10-6 Big 12 |
| Pros |
| An SOS that ranks in the top 35. An RPI hovering around the top 50. Finished third in Big 12. Wins of note: Kansas, Oklahoma
and Texas A&M. |
| Cons |
| A 5-9 mark away from home. A 3-6 record vs. the RPI top 50, 6-10 vs. the top 100. Lost six of final nine games. |
| Outlook |
| They've only won twice in their final seven and the victories came vs. Big 12 cellar dwellers Colorado and Iowa State. The committee will
have to weigh their record, RPI and SOS vs. their late season slide. |
| Last game |
lost to Texas A&M 63-60
(Big 12 quarterfinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
Last four in ...
| Arizona |
 |
| Record |
| 19-14, 8-10 Pac-10 |
| Pros |
| The No. 2 rated strength of schedule (Oregon State takes them down a peg). An RPI hovering around the top
30. Swept Washington State. Other wins of note: UNLV, USC and Texas A&M. |
| Cons |
| Lost eight of their final 11 games (and two of the wins came vs. Oregon State). Swept by Oregon and Arizona State.
|
| Outlook |
| No other bubble team can top the Wildcats' combo RPI and SOS numbers, but how can the committee balance that with
the fact that fellow Pac-10 memebers Oregon and Arizona State have much less worthy RPI and SOS, but have better records and swept
Arizona?
|
| Last game |
lost to Stanford 75-64
(Pac-10 quarterfinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| Villanova |
 |
| Record |
| 20-12, 9-9 Big East |
| Pros |
| Won six of final nine games. An RPI and SOS hovering around the top 50. Wins over UConn, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Temple, George Mason and Syracuse (twice).
|
| Cons |
| A 3-6 record vs. the RPI top 50. Four losses to teams outside the RPI top 100, most notably DePaul and Rutgers. |
| Outlook |
|
The Wildcats have seven wins vs. teams in the RPI top 100, which is among the highs for a bubble team, but the four losses outside the RPI top 100 are high too and the loss to Rutgers is a major blotch. What may give Villanova the edge over others on this list is the the fact they were playing relatively well down the stretch instead of sinking like some other bubble teams with similar credentials . |
| Last game |
lost to Georgetown 82-63
(Big East quarterfinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| Baylor |
 |
| Record |
| 21-10, 9-7 Big 12 |
| Pros |
| An RPI and SOS ranked solidly in the top 40. A 9-6 record in road/neutral games. Wins of note: Notre Dame, Kansas State, Texas A&M and
swept Texas Tech. |
| Cons |
| Lost eight of 13 games down the stretch. A non-conference SOS in the triple-digits. A 3-8 mark vs. the RPI top 50.
|
| Outlook |
| The Bears didn't have any bad losses on their resumé up until Thursday's loss in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament. Eight of
their losses came to teams in the RPI top 50, and only one by more than 10 points. The quality of their overall schedule and closeness of their losses should
help their cause.
|
| Last game |
lost to Colorado 91-84 2OT
(Big 12 first round) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| Ohio State |
 |
| Record |
| 19-13, 10-8 Big Ten |
| Pros |
| Strong non-conference and overall schedule. An RPI just inside the top 50. Wins of note: Michigan State, Purdue, Syracuse
and Florida. |
| Cons |
| A 2-10 record vs. teams in the RPI top 50, 6-10 vs. the top 100. A 5-10 road/neutral site record. Losses at Iowa and
Michigan. |
| Outlook |
| Their schedule was among the toughest in the nation, but it doesn't help that up until the last week of the regular season
they had basically lost all of those tough games on top of losses to Iowa and Michigan. Despite their strong RPI and SOS, a lack of quality wins
and three losses to teams outside the RPI top 100 will probably be their downfall. |
| Last game |
lost to Michigan State 67-60
(Big Ten quarterfinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
Last four out ...
| Arizona
State |
 |
| Record |
| 19-12, 9-9 Pac-10 |
| Pros |
| Swept Arizona. Other wins of note: Xavier, Stanford, USC and Oregon. |
| Cons |
| Weak RPI (outside the top 75) and a non-conference SOS that ranks among the worst in the nation. A 6-8 record in
road/neutral games, 5-7 vs. RPI top
50 and 7-10 vs. RPI top 100. Lost at Illinois and at home to Washington. |
| Outlook |
| The Sun Devils lost 10 of their final 15 games, including a quick exit from the Pac-10 Tournament. Despite some solid
victories over the course of the season, a lack of consistency makes them a very dicey pick for the Dance.
|
| Last game |
lost to USC 59-55
(Pac-10 quarterfinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| Virginia
Tech |
 |
| Record |
| 19-13, 9-7 ACC |
| Pros |
| A 9-7 mark in the ACC. Won five of their final seven games. Wins of note: Miami, Florida State, swept Maryland. |
| Cons |
| An RPI outside the top 50. A 1-7 record vs. the RPI top 50 and 7-9 mark vs. the top 100. A 7-11 mark in road/neutral site
games. Lost to Richmond, Old Dominion and Penn State. |
| Outlook |
| There's no shame in losing to UNC and they gave it a game effort, but is a close loss to the No. 1 team in the nation enough to push them over the edge? Their victory over Miami in the ACC quarterfinals was their lone victory vs. a team in the RPI top 50. As a team from the ACC their resumé is awfully flimsy. Their best non-conference victory came vs. UNC Greensboro. |
| Last game |
lost to 68-66 North Caroline
(ACC semifinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| Mississippi |
 |
| Record |
| 21-10, 7-9 SEC |
| Pros |
| An RPI hovering around the top 40. A perfect 14-0 record out of conference. A 5-4 record vs. the RPI top 50, 7-4 vs. the top
100. Wins of
note: Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Clemson (in Puerto Rico), New Mexico and South Alabama. |
| Cons |
| Non-conference SOS in the triple digits. Finished under .500 in SEC play. Six losses to teams outside the RPI top 100,
including a 20-point loss to LSU. |
| Outlook |
| Another team with some solid victories (six wins vs. likely tourney teams) on their resumé, but more than half their
losses came vs. teams outside the RPI top 100. They're still in the hunt, but their subpar SEC season may be too much to overcome. |
| Last game |
lost to Georgia 97-95 OT
(SEC first round) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| Syracuse |
 |
| Record |
| 19-13, 9-9 Big East |
| Pros |
| An SOS that ranks in the top 10 in the nation. An RPI just inside the top 50. Wins of note: Georgetown, Marquette, St. Joe's
and @ Villanova. |
| Cons |
| Lost six of final nine games. A 2-8 mark vs. the RPI top 50. A 5-7 record in road/neutral games. Losses to Cincinnati and
South Florida. |
| Outlook |
| Loss to Villanova in the Big East first round was likely the nail in the coffin to their tourney hopes. Despite a difficult schedule
and solid RPI, the Orange
just didn't play well enough down the stretch. A couple of more wins vs. the RPI top 50 would have made a big difference. |
| Last game |
lost to Villanova 82-63
(Big East first round) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
Leftovers ...
| Illinois State |
 |
| Record |
| 24-9, 13-5 Missouri Valley |
| Pros |
| An RPI in the top 40. Won nine of their final 12 games. A 9-8 record in road/neutral site games. Swept Southern Illinois and
Creighton.
|
| Cons |
| A 2-5 record vs. the RPI top 50. Losses at Indiana State, Northern Iowa and Eastern Michigan. Lost all three meetings
against Drake.
|
| Outlook |
| They'll be one of the more interesting debates come Selection Sunday. Their record and RPI merit consideration, but
there's
just not a whole lot of substance to their resumé. They swept both Creighton and Southern Illinois and they reached the MVC final, but that's
about it. If they could have beaten Drake just once or beaten Indiana or Kent State out of conference, theyd' be a definite in. But can they get in
having lost to Drake
three times?
|
| Last game |
lost to Drake 79-49
(MVC championship) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| VCU |
 |
| Record |
| 24-7, 15-3 Colonial |
| Pros |
| Regular season conference champions. A 12-6 road/neutral site record. Won nine of their final 12 games.
Wins of note: Maryland, Houston and Akron.
|
| Cons |
| An SOS in the triple digits. Played just two teams in the RPI top 50 (Miami, Arkansas), losing both. Lost to Old Dominion,
Hampton, William & Mary and James Madison.
|
| Outlook |
| They have a decent RPI and a solid record, but there's not much meat to their credentials as they played just six games vs.
the RPI top 100 going 3-3.
|
| Last game |
lost to William & Mary 56-54
(Colonial semifinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| Massachusetts |
 |
| Record |
| 21-10, 10-6 Atlantic 10 |
| Pros |
| Hovering around the top 40 in the RPI. Won six of final seven games. A 10-6 mark in road/neutral site games. Wins of note:
Dayton, Syracuse and Houston.
|
| Cons |
| A so-so SOS (outside the top 70). A 1-4 record vs. the RPI top 50, 6-7 vs. the top 100. Swept by Saint Joseph's, lost only
meeting vs. Temple. Three losses to
teams outside the RPI top 100. |
| Outlook |
| The one thing UMass couldn't afford was a one and done in the A-10 Tournament. If they could have just managed one win,
they'd have been a good bet for an
at-large regardless of what happened in the semis. Now they're going to be really sweating it out. |
| Last game |
lost to Charlotte 69-65
(A-10 quarterfinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| Dayton |
 |
| Record |
| 21-10, 8-8 Atlantic 10 |
| Pros |
| An RPI and SOS ranked in the top 35. A 9-6 record vs. the RPI top 100. Non-conference RPI ranked fourth. Wins of note:
Lousiville, Pittsburgh, Saint
Joseph's and Temple. |
| Cons |
| A three-game sweep by Xavier. Lost to UMass in their only meeting. Losses to four teams outside the RPI top
100. |
| Outlook |
| The Flyers were 12-1 before losing key freshman Chris Wright and finished 9-9 without him in the lineup. With no
assurances that he'll be back for the
NCAA Tournament, the committee most likely will decide the Flyers' fate on what they did without him and, if that's the case, they're out.
|
| Last game |
lost to Xavier 74-65
(Atlantic 10 quarterfinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| Oregon |
 |
| Record |
| 18-13, 9-9 Pac-10 |
| Pros |
| An SOS that ranks among the top 35 in the nation. An RPI hovering around the top 50. Only two loses by more than 10
points. Swept Arizona. Other wins of note:
Stanford, Kansas State and Arizona State. |
| Cons |
| A 5-10 record in road/neutral site games. A 1-8 mark vs. the top four in Pac-10. A 4-8 record vs the RPI top 50, 7-10 vs. top
100. |
| Outlook |
| There's no shame in losing to Washington State in the Pac-10 tourney, but the Ducks had a habit of losing to the top teams
from the conference. They were
competitive, but just not quite good enough to get over the hump. Their SOS is really their lone bright spot and that's likely not going to get it done
for a tourney berth.
|
| Last game |
lost to Washington St. 75-70
(Pac-10 quarterfinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| Florida |
 |
| Record |
| 21-11, 8-8 SEC |
| Pros |
| Two-time defending champions with 20+ wins. Only three losses to teams outside RPI top 50. Wins of note: Vanderbilt,
Kentucky and Temple. |
| Cons |
| An RPI above 60 and a non-conference SOS in the high triple-digits. A 2-8 mark vs. the RPI top 50 and 3-9 vs. the RPI top
100. Lost six of final eight games, including four in a row. |
| Outlook |
| The Gators are young and just couldn't hold up against the meat of their SEC schedule. Not nearly enough quality wins for a
major conference team -- only three
victories vs. the RPI top 100 -- to be worthy of an at-large invite. |
| Last game |
| lost to Alabama 80-69 |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| Florida State |
 |
| Record |
| 19-14, 7-9 ACC |
| Pros |
| An SOS in the top 25. Swept Miami (Fla.) Other wins of note: Clemson, UAB, Florida. |
| Cons |
| An RPI outside the top 60. A 6-10 road/neutral record. A 3-6 record vs. the RPI top 50 and 8-12 mark vs. the RPI top 100.
Lost to South
Florida. |
| Outlook |
| They'll get some points for playing a difficult schedule. Not many bubble teams can claim eight wins vs. the RPI top
100 -- including three on the road. Just too many losses considering their RPI and OOC strength to draw an at-large bid. |
| Last game |
lost to North Carolina 82-70
(ACC quarterfinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
| New Mexico |
 |
| Record |
| 24-8, 11-5 Mountain West |
| Pros |
| Won eight of final 10 games. An RPI hovering around the top 50. An 8-6 record in road/neutral site games. Wins of note:
UNLV, San Diego and Texas Tech. |
| Cons |
| An SOS in the triple-digits. A 1-4 mark vs. the RPI top 50. Three losses vs. teams outside the RPI top 100. |
| Outlook |
| The Lobos couldn't really afford to take a loss to anyone other than BYU in the MWC tourney. Despite the overall record,
their credentials just aren't strong enough for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid.
|
| Last game |
lost to Utah 82-80 OT
(MWC quarterfinals) |
| Remaining schedule |
| Season over |
|
|
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