An Over fever has broken out after the American Athletic Conference finalists were involved in games with 83 and 91 points last Saturday. They rank among the top-four scoring squads in the FBS. Yet, UCF has engaged in just one game with a projected total beyond the 60s. The 82 is quite a leap. Shootouts happen in the postseason but, with a possible Big Six bowl berth at stake, nerves will come into play. The Knights rank 33rd (among 129 FBS schools) in scoring defense, so the Under is solid.

The big difference between the two squads is UCF's defense being dramatically better, allowing eight fewer points per game. UCF won 40-13 at home in their last meeting two months ago, easily covering the -5.5. UCF has the home-field edge in Orlando and should stay undefeated and get the cover Saturday.

Lack of recognition for an undefeated season can be a deflating prospect. Central Florida’s 11-0 season was not enough to put the Knights in the playoff discussion. That, combined with coach Scott Frost’s name drawing attention for open coaching positions, can be a detractor for bettors. Instead, look for Central Florida to dominate the AAC championship game and clear this number.

The Knights have a legitimate beef with the CFB Playoff committee about their ranking. What they can’t let happen is them worrying about something they can’t control take their focus off of the task at hand, which is what nearly happened last week against USF.

The AAC championship game features No. 1 vs. No. 2 in scoring offenses in the nation, UCF at 48.3 points per game and Memphis at 47.0. But a points line of 82 is really big. I expect the defenses to at least show up to some extent. My simulations have the Under hitting 60 percent of the time.