This is now the right price at which to back Louisville after the opening number of -1 bloated all the way to -4.5 in some spots. N.C. State has looked impressive this season, as coach Dave Doeren has a solid defense to go along with his creative play-calling. But I think Wolfpack supporters are reading too much into their win over injury-depleted Florida State. N.C. State is a decent team, but under Doeren is known for late-season fades. Reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and friends get the win in prime time.

I've only got N.C. State rated four points lower than Louisville on a neutral field, and I give the Wolfpack at least four points for home-field advantage in a Thursday night isolated game. Louisville has failed to cover eight of its last nine games. Basically, Louisville is overrated. Let's just call NC State worthy of being a two-point favorite. I'm on the Wolfpack.

NC State coach Dave Doeren has one of the best defensive fronts in college football and will test the Louisville o-line all night long. This looks like a great spot for NC State after it was sluggish last week versus Syracuse, but got by with a 33-25 win. I'll take the team with the better defense getting points.

Lamar Jackson seems to raise his level of play during primetime matchups and this is another opportunity for him to showcase his skills against a very good defensive team. As much publicity as NC State is getting this year, the Wolfpack's defense tires late in games. Lay the points.