This game will go one of two ways. Alabama by 10+ or Clemson wins outright. I have the Tigers winning outright in 40 percent of simulations, making them a solid value on the moneyline at +200. This is simply a value bet as I think Clemson wins this game more often than the implied odds of roughly 33 percent.

We're looking at almost the same situation as last season's Alabama 45-40 win, and the result I feel most comfortable with being the same is the total going Over. We get a low total because of what Clemson's defense did to Ohio State, but the Bama offense isn't struggling at the moment like Ohio State was behind its questionable QB play. Both defenses combine to allow just 28 ppg, a scary notion if betting Over, but I don't see either of these defenses stopping the offense. I have seen plenty of good offenses do well against Clemson, like Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh, Florida State and Louisville. I also don't see Alabama being able to slow down QB Deshaun Watson much.

I think there is a bit of a short-term bias that is opening up some value in going Over the posted total in the CFP title game Monday night. Clemson and Alabama combined to hold their opponents to seven total points in the semifinals, but it’s unlikely they can duplicate the effort against each other. Both clubs are loaded with playmakers on offense. They also are capable of scoring on defense and special teams, and one such score could help put the scoring pace on track for an Over.