The last three meetings between Alabama and Florida have gone Over the total, but I've got this one being a defensive battle, with Florida scoring few points. The Gators have stayed Under the total in their last five games and have allowed an average of 14 ppg this season, while the offense scores only 24 ppg. Alabama will slow the offense even more, but I'm expecting the Florida defense to give the Tide some unexpected fits. Play the Under in the SEC title game Saturday.

An extra half-point hook was available at many outlets Friday, and grabbing +24.5 would enhance the value on the Gators. I'll still take the points here in what is undoubtedly a mismatch in the SEC title game against Alabama. But if Florida’s defense can hold the Tide to field goals and muster just a little offense of its own, the Gators should cover. This spread is so massive that it also invites backdoor covers -- which happened last year in this matchup -- and Alabama has no incentive to run up the score with a big lead late.

This game will be closer than many think. Florida matches up very well defensively. Where Florida has issues is throwing the ball. But the Gators will run the ball, play good defense and keep this one respectable.