This game opened as pick’em in most market before Texas was moved to a field-goal favorite. This was due in large part to the sentiment of perhaps a strong effort in support of Charlie Strong, the Texas coach who is likely to be terminated at season’s end. But I I think this a spot where TCU coach Gary Patterson thrives, as he will smell blood and want to send a Texas team that was upset by Kansas last week into the off-season by piling on the misery. Take the Horned Frogs.

Texas is a much better team at home and after last week's loss at Kansas, I look for the defense to play extremely well in an attempt to save Charlie Strong's job and also become bowl eligible. TCU needs the win for bowl season too, but the Horned Frogs are playing even more below their rating than Texas is, covering just once in their last six games. They've also stayed Under in four of their last five. Texas has stayed Under in its last six. Look for a low-scoring game; lots of value on the Under here.

Wish I'd gotten this a bit lower, but I'll still go with the emotional play and back the Longhorns in Charlie Strong's final game. It doesn't hurt that Texas has covered four of its past five home games while TCU comes in on a 1-6 ATS skid in Big 12 play.