Down in Baton Rouge, I'll fade an Alabama team that's been beating the big number consistently this season. Breaking down those covers, the inflated lines grew to the Crimson Tide’s favor in large part due to special teams or defensive touchdowns. LSU not only has the size to contend with Alabama, but I also believe they can come up with an outlier play to turn the tide on Bama in the sportsbook. Grab the points here.

It's hard to go against the best team in the country, but this is too many points. The last two meetings in Death Valley were decided by 7 and 4 points. Leonard Fournette is healthy and out for redemption, and he'll be a much bigger factor Saturday than he was in last year's 30-16 loss. Ed Orgeron will show again why he deserves the permanent head-coaching gig.