Laquon Treadwell and Laremy Tunsil are gone, but Chad Kelly returns to lead the Rebels. The loss of Tunsil, while not insignificant, doesn't hurt Ole Miss much in simulations when replaced by Sean Rawlings and Rod Taylor who combined for 11 starts. Florida State also projects to have a great offensive line as they return all starters from last season. The big question for the Seminoles is how will freshman Deondre Francois fare in his first start? This neutral site crowd will be roughly 70 percent for Florida State, but I'm treating it as a true neutral site in the model with freshmen starting at quarterback and in the kicking game for the Seminoles. Ole Miss +6 is the conservative play, but my model has a projected score of 28.07 to 27.6 for Ole Miss, making the moneyline a great value bet at +185. I'm going to trust the computer and cash my second underdog moneyline winner of the week.

For a team whose quarterback has yet to take a snap in a live game, expectations are sky-high for the Seminoles. The Seminoles are loaded with experience on offense with the exception of quarterback, where redshirt freshman Deondre Francois is expected to start. This cast is highlighted by all-purpose back Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 1,691 yards and 19 touchdowns despite missing some time because of injuries. The defense is strong up front, led by end DeMarcus Walker, who had 10.5 sacks and 15 tackles for loss last year. Expectations are comparably mild for the Rebels, whose roster was depleted by NFL departures and whose program is engulfed by off-field turmoil. Even so, the Rebels should field a competent club. They have the top returning quarterback in the SEC in Chad Kelly, who threw for 4,042 yards and 31 touchdowns last year. Moreover, coach Hugh Freeze’s teams tend to thrive in an underdog role, and I expect them to perform well in a game where their opponent is receiving the majority of the headlines. This is a strong value behind a key number.

Ole Miss' Chad Kelly could be the best quarterback in the country this season, and he will get a chance to prove it right away against Florida State. Kelly will give the Rebels a real shot to upset the Seminoles, as my simulations show a 54 percent chance of them winning straight-up as an underdog. There is even more value taking the points with Ole Miss, which has a 65 percent chance of covering the spread.