I'm also going to lay the -4.5 with Notre Dame on the road after making a few adjustments and re-simulating the game. My initial projections were under-valuing the strength of the offensive line and the return of Tarean Folston for Norte Dame. The home field advantage is nice for Texas, but I still think they are over-valued with a time share at quaterback and a young group on both sides of the ball. According to my most recent simulations Notre Dame should be favored by 7, so I have no problem laying the chalk against an underwhelming Texas team.

Notre Dame and Texas ranked 106th and 116th out of 128 FBS teams in plays per game in 2015 and have shown little signs of increasing pace of play. Norte Dame coach Brian Kelly announced that both DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire were going to play against Texas, indicating they could both be on the field at the same time in certain situations. The Irish project to have the best offensive line in college football and they are loaded at talent in the backfield with Tarean Folston and Josh Adams. Look for the Irish to keep the ball on the ground early in 2016 without Will Fuller catching passes. With the questions at quarterback for Texas and the projected pace of play I think the under makes a lot of sense.

This line is moving down, so I'll take it here before value gets worse. The under covers in 64% of my simulations and makes sense with Texas likely rolling out a freshman quarterback in his first college start. Notre Dame will also be without last year's offensive stars Will Fuller and C.J. Prosise, both of whom were lost to the NFL.

The first thing to look at is the rating differential where Notre Dame is close to a 6-point favorite on a neutral field, so the big question is how much to give Texas for its home field. Against teams the Longhorns are better than like K-State or Iowa State, you could argue Texas Memorial Stadium is worth up to five points, but against a team like Notre Dame, let's just say it's worth only 1.5. There isn't much value there -- maybe a half to a full point -- to make you jump. But what jumps out for me in a season opener is who is starting at QB for each team and who the better head coach is. With Notre Dame you've got two proven leaders with DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire; both are expected to play Sunday -- sometimes on the same play. Texas doesn't have that luxury; it's either senior Tyrone Swoopes, a major disappointment, or true freshman Shane Buechele. From just experience alone at the most key position, Notre Dame gets the nod. Factoring in my belief that Brian Kelly is the much better prepared coach, that makes selecting Notre Dame easier. Notre Dame has beaten Texas five straight times, including 38-3 in South Bend last season. The Irish also have won four straight in Austin. Notre Dame is the play.