The Zags have the advantage on defense. In fact, they bring the most efficient defense in the nation, per KenPom.com. This total should be around 151 or 152. Go Under.

I'm going with Gonzaga to win it all, and for the first time all season the Zags are getting points. What's not to like about a team that takes smart shots, squared up, and shoots 50 percent from the field? They've also got a defense that allows only 37 percent shooting. Nothing has changed against better competition in the NCAA Tournament than the teams they played in the WCC all season. They're just really good. Gonzaga gets the win.

North Carolina has been hanging by a thread, and needed late free-throw rebounds to beat Oregon by one in a game it should have won by double figures. The play of Joel Berry, who is battling ankle soreness, remains a concern, as he had 11 points on 2 of 14 shooting. Gonzaga has the size and skill inside with Zach Collins and Przemek Karnowski to compete on the boards with the Tar Heels. Also, the Bulldogs' confidence and poise against South Carolina showed they aren't intimidated by this stage. Gonzaga is the play Monday night.

Hmm. This total is a half-tick higher than for UNC-Oregon even as the Tar Heels bump up against the nation’s most efficient defense. OK, the Bulldogs did not live up to that distinction Saturday but are still 7-3 on Unders in their past 10 neutral-site, NCAA and all games. Plus, UNC guard Joel Berry II (2-for-11 Saturday) cannot hit the broad side of a dome. These Zags have been assigned totals higher than this one five times and went Under all but once, including the NCAA opener that wound up a whopping 45 points below. Nerves often affect shooters in title games, and a few misguided attempts by over-adrenalized players means the Under at the Final Four will score. Finally.

The Zags continue to get huge defensive stops when they need them. That will be the difference Monday night as Gonzaga wins its first national title. Back the Zags on the money line. They're winning outright in 55 percent of my simulations.