Alex's Picks (5 Live)
Alex's Past Picks
Bryce Miller is having an excellent season for the Seattle Mariners. Miller draws a plus matchup this evening against the Oakland As lineup that ranks 17th in OPS against opposing right handed pitching. Miller has gone 6+ IP in five of his last six outings.
Cole Ragans has been lights out and is quickly proven to be one of the top starters in the MLB. He has pitched at least 6 IP in 16/20 starts since joining the Royals dating back to last season. He will face a middling Angels lineup that has been decent but is without Mike Trout. Look for Ragans to produce another quality start.
This is a huge number for Payton Pritchard who has been excellent through two games in this series against Cleveland, although I don't believe his current production is sustainable. This series also shifts back to Cleveland and I believe this will continue to be a low scoring environment with minimal possessions.
Andrew Heaney has been a solid if not unspectacular starter for the defending World Series champion Texas Rangers. He will face a Rockies lineup that has one of the highest K Rates in the league. I would also argue that Heaney is running cold on strikeouts and due for an uptick in that department.
Trevor Rogers has struggled this season and the lefty owns an ERA of over 6.00. Rogers has the unenviable task of facing arguably the hottest lineup in the MLB in the Phillies. Philadelphia does possess a high K rate versus southpaws, however they have faced Rogers quite a few times, in addition to Rogers averaging a career worst SwStr%.
I love Charlie Morton, the pride of Flemington, New Jersey, however this is simply a huge number for Morton at this stage of his career, in addition to being a difficult matchup. Morton is sporting the lowest K rate, as well as the lowest SwStr% he has posted over his last 10 seasons. He faces a Mets lineup that has a whipping 241 ABs against Morton, in addition to possessing the 6th lowest K rate against opposing right handed pitching. This is a tough spot for the veteran pitcher who has failed to eclipse this line in 5 of his 6 starts this season.
Yusei Kikuchi is having a career season and the 6th year starter has pitched 6 IP in five consecutive appearances. He will face a Minnesota Twins lineup that has been red hot, and have been excellent against opposing southpaws as they own the 4th highest OPS versus lefties. I would argue this is one of the most difficult matchups with the way the Twins are presently playing.
TJ McConnell has been excellent in this series and is coming off 10 point, 12 assist performance, where the veteran PG racked up double digit assists in the first half. Pacer fans and NBA fans alike are wondering why McConnell didn't close the game considering how effective he was but it simply is hard to play him and Tyrese Haliburton simultaneously considering theyre both ball dominant. TJ also doesn't offer much of a threat from the perimeter and isn't nearly as effective if he isn't running the offense. He also greatly benefits from coming off the bench and facing the opponents second unit, which is why I don't see his minutes suddenly rising as they would come at the expense of Tyrese Haliburton.
Jared Jones has been phenomenal all season and possesses exceptional strikeout metrics. With that being said, this is a big number and considering the Pirates do not like pushing their young Ace too hard, he really has very minimal margin for error having to accumulate 8 Ks in around 90 pitches. All it takes is one poor inning where he pitches 25+ pitches to set him off course. The Cubs qualify as a solid matchup, however their lineup is a lot tougher/stingier with Cody Bellinger back. I'm betting on some regression.
This number is simply way too low for Framber Valdez, especially in what I consider a plus matchup. All of Framber's numbers have dipped this season but his K metrics check out and he's run cold so far in that department. Valdez is averaging the 2nd highest CSW% of his seven year career. If Valdez gets in 5+ IP today, I love his chances of eclipsing 5+ Ks.