This is an insane line. I understand he had 18 in Game 3 but this feels like a bit if an exaggeration. He's only his this over twice in his last 15 games. In his highest production, 30+ minute games this season, he is still hitting this under in 12 of the 14. Same story with games without Giannis: strong trends to the under. I think Bobby Portis can have himself an awesome game across the board tonight, but I think that can be done with 11 boards.

One has to wonder how much is left in the tank for the Milwaukee Bucks. They fought hard in Indiana taking game three to overtime, and hanging around for the majority of game four. Yet, with Damian Lillard out in game four the Bucks made ten less three pointers than Indiana. Fatigue along with that factor will be the difference in game five. Take the Pacers.

This is a big number for Bobby Portis even without Damian Lillard and Giannis in then lineup. Portis is a very productive player that typically comes off the bench when the Bucks are at full strength. He is much bigger offensive responsibilities with Milwaukee missing their two stars and leading scorers. While Portis usage should obviously increase he tends to struggle when hes a primary or secondary scoring option which is why I like fading him tonight.

Seems highly doubtful that Giannis and Dame Lillard will play and in fact they are both listed doubtful. This would be quite a bit higher but Tyrese Haliburton is questionable for Indiana. Highly doubt he sits with the Pacers having the chance to finish off a short-handed Bucks team and avoid a Game 6.

Both of these squads played very little defense in the regular season and that has translated to the playoffs. I am surprised this total is as low as it is considering they have easily eclipsed this total in three consecutive games. I personally don't see that trend suddenly changing in Game 5 and I have no clue why this total has actually shrunk a few points. Both teams like to get out and run, in addition to routinely getting shots up with double digits seconds left on the shot clock. Until they prove otherwise, I'm riding OVER.

This just looks like a terrible match-up for a beat up and disconnected Bucks team lacking leadership and size. Middleton limping around in Game 4, with Giannis and Dame already out for that game, is another bad sign. Bucks can't run with Indiana, who is topping 120 points on them in 7 of their 9 meetings Bucks can't be that prolific as presently constructed and Brook Lopez doesn't have another game him in like the last one. Doc Rivers doesn't have the answers and Bucks can't defend all the deep shooters the Pacers boast. IND already whipped them in Milwaukee by 17 in Game 3, so been there, done that

So maybe I am missing something here, but it doesn't sound like Giannis is gonna be back for this one, which means the Bucks have major issues defending. And Dame might be back, and we know he can score. Pacers won't shoot as well as they did last time out, but don't have to with this number so low again. In 9 games now these teams have produced - 239, 239, 233, 203, 272, 235, 266, 247, 250. Pacers at 121+ in 7 of 9 and 113+ in 8 of 9. There will be runs, they will play at Pace and defense will be in short supply