Conley was a do-whatever-you-need stud in the first-round dismantling of the Suns and he was a handful for the Nuggets in four games against them this season. He averaged 18 PPG, shooting 62.5% from the field and over 60% from three. He was 2nd on Wolves in +/- vs DEN (among all who played all 4 games) and also led them with 5 asst/G vs Nuggets and also grabbed 4 boards/G against them. Easy to forget about him with the Wolves young guns but I like him to be very impactful tonight

If you study the four games these teams played in the regular season, the Wolves defensive tenacity really limited the impact of the Nuggets wings and outside shooters. ANT and Conley and McDaniels dig in deep and deny a lot of that. The one Wild Card in all of this, of course, is The Joker. He shot nearly 60% from the field (KAT only played 2 of the 4 games worth noting) averaged over 33/G in splitting with MIN and I just don't think Murray and Porter and Gordon will go off. The MVP has to score like an MVP every game and get the Wolves bigs in foul trouble. He can't be passive or pass-happy (and he wasn't vs them in regular season).

This is the lowest Nuggets total since they last faced MIN on 3/29 (210), and that game produced 209. DEN was an under team vs LAL (4-1 U) and down the stretch at home but I expect this game to open up a little bit and project both teams to score 105+. Their last meeting produced 223 (at DEN). MIN is young and adept to handle the altitude with so much time to prepare. MIN an elite D team but this is unchartered territory. MIN 9-3 Over last 12 and routinely scored 120+ vs Suns. MIN 25-18 to the over on Road (though, again, DEN went to under at home). The aging LAL averaged 106.4/G in first round vs DEN w/o much from their bench.

Ramirez has strong splits off Detmers, he hits velo very well from the left side and Detmers has come off his incredible pace from his first handful of starts. Angels bullpen also stinks. Ramirez is batting .286 off lefties and slugging over .500 against them. He's driving in a run every 5 ABs vs them this season. Guardians were a little lethargic Fri in their first game back from a road trip but I expect them to put Angels pitching in far more peril tonight

The Giants lineup has been a problem all season, they can't get anything going and while the Phillies haven't seen SF start before, they have a lot of bats going right now (though the Turner injury will sting). The Phillies have won Ranger Suarez's last 5 starts all by 3 runs or more. They RD in his 6 starts is +24, allowing 4 total runs in his last 5 starts. His stuff is electric and Jorge Soler is the only Gigante who has flashed power against him in the past. Keaton Winn's numbers look good but his last 4 starts are all against teams that cant hit (TB, MIA, NYM, PIT). Different challenge on the road today in a smaller park than he's used to

I've chronicles why I like Nevin in this spot and in this series quite a bit. A's will be stealing on these catchers, Rodgers tends to lose his command and I expect Nevin to be in position to drive in runs today