Alex's Pick (1 Live)
Alex's Past Picks
Tough spot for Edward Cabrera going up against a red hot Dodgers lineup. The Dodgers lineup has been stingy all year, but particularly lately, in addition to possesses the best hitting lineup which could also shorten Cabrera's night as well. Shop around as this is not the best price on the market.
Daniel Gafford made a tremendous impact on the Mavericks after Dallas acquired the big man at the trade deadline from the Washington Wizards. Gafford was instrumental in helping Dallas win 16 of their final 19 games and was excellent on both ends of the court. Despite starting in Dallas opening round series against the Clippers, Gafford was used sparingly and also did not look like the same player that led the NBA in FG % in the regular season. This appears to be a more favorable matchup for him, in addition to Dallas losing Maxi Kleber who was playing around 25 minutes a game in round 1. I expect Gafford to absorb the bulk of those minutes and he should eclipse this combo line.
Jose Butto has been solid this season and he is averaging a career high SwStr% which certainly is a good sign for his K Rate. He gets a favorable matchup against a Saint Louis Cardinals lineup that strikes out a lot and possesses the 7th highest K rate against opposing right handed pitchers. Butto has eclipsed this in four of five starts this season as well.
The Houston Astros possess the lowest K Rate in the league and make for a very difficult matchup for Luis Gil. Gil has pitched well this season, but I would argue that he's run hot on strikeouts and is due for some regression that department. Houston is the most difficult matchup for opposing right handers and I will even pay significant juice because this line really should be 5.5 (and juiced under).
This is a huge RA line for Derrick White in what projects to be a low scoring environment, between two teams that both play slow, and should feature minimal possessions. White has yet to tally 9 RA in Boston's 5 game series against Miami. White has been held under this line in 24/26 playoff games dating back to last season.
Zac Gallen has had two consecutive poor starts by his standards and hasnt been great away from Arizona, however he gets to face a Reds lineup with a bloated 28.5% K Rate, who also rank 27th in OPS against opposing right handed pitchers. This would certainly qualify as a get right spot, and even away from the friendly confines of Chase Field, this number feels closer to Gallen's floor in this matchup.
This is a solid matchup for Logan Allen who has pitched better than his raw numbers might suggest. Allen will face a Detroit lineup that doesn't walk a lot, has a .645 OPS against opposing southpaws, and have been struggling to score runs lately. Meanwhile Allen has gone at least 5.1 IP in four of his previous six starts.
Love this spot for KAT who scored 20 points in game 1, despite not playing very many minutes in the 4th quarter. The Nuggets have struggled with bigs that can stretch the floor all season long, and I expect Anthony Edwards production to decrease as well. I think KAT could play more minutes and I believe he will be aggressive tonight, especially if Rudy Gobert misses the game.
I like this spot for Aaron Gordon to bounce back after a relative dud in game 1 of this series. Gordon played huge minutes and had a very solid opening round series against the Lakers. With Rudy Gobert missing in the Timberwolves lineup tonight, Gordon should have a lot more favorable looks and scoring chances. Look for AG to get us at least 14+ points in a must win game.
I typically like to pick on Sean Manaea, however to his credit has pitched well this season. Manaea's strikeout numbers are intriguing considering he is generating the second highest Whiff Rate of his 9 year career, thus suggesting he's actually running cold on strikeouts, despite averaging 9.2 K/9. I view the Cardinals lineup as fairly neutral and I believe Manaea is certainly wroth a shot at 4.5 against most lineups in his present form.
Luis Castillo is having a stellar season in Seattle and has proven to be one of the most durable and reliable starting pitchers in the league today. He has eclipsed 6 IP in four consecutive starts and 19/25 starts dating back to last season. Look for Castillo to earn another quality start.
Obi Toppin had a very good opening round series and was certainly a bright spot for the Indiana. Toppin came off the bench and scored 12 PPG in the series on 50% shooting. He is likely to have a much more difficult experience facing his former team the New York Knicks who pair an elite defense with the slowest pace of play in the NBA. Toppin averaged 1.2 made threes in the regular season, so this line would certainly qualify as lofty. The Knicks will try and make this ugly and they thrive in low scoring environments with minimal possessions.
Anytime were working with a K line of 7.5 or above, there is just so much that needs to go right. I would also argue that while Cole Ragans has pitched well, lines this high are reserved for the very best strikeout artists. Ragans has also been held under this line in 8 of his last 12 starts dating back to last season. The Brewers lineup does strikeout out a lot, however they also are dangerous as they as third in the the MLB in OPS.
Bryse Wilson has primarily been a relief pitcher over the last two seasons and is making just his third starter over the last two seasons. In his last outing he threw nearly a career high 91 pitches, which was the most pitches hes thrown in a game since July 7th, 2022. He's never thrown more than 100 pitches in his seven year career. Wilson will face a tough KC lineup that is 10th in OPS.