4 Expert Picks
The Chisox look to be outclassed this weekend ...
The Yankees look like the best team in the AL. ...
The Cubs are jockying for 1st place in the NL Central. ...
The rubber match mention is important because into later May ...
Past Picks
Jack Flaherty has flashed brilliance at times this year, but he's consistently racked up strikeouts no matter the matchup, including punching out seven against the team with the lowest strikeout rate in the league in his last start. That should be enough to expect six Ks as a baseline even against teams like the D-Backs that don't strike out a ton, though I'll note that their lineup is much worse overall against righties than lefties. I think this number needs to be 6.5 for a pitcher with an 11.7 K/9 rate on the season.
Zac Gallen has looked like a completely different pitcher at home compared to how he has performed on the road. Case in point, Gallen has surrendered just 1 ER over 3 starts and 17 IP this season. He gets another favorable matchup against a Tigers lineup that is ranked just 24th in OPS against opposing right handed pitching. I like Gallen's chances of getting in six innings tonight.
Miles Mikolas led the majors in hits allowed last year, and his hit rate is even worse in nine starts, leading to an ugly 6.19 ERA. Lefties have a 141 OPS+ against him this year, and Rafael Devers has extreme splits favoring righty matchups this year. He's also been locked in at the plate with homers in three straight and 2+ bases in nine of his 15 games in May. There's a reason this prop, which is typically heavily tilted toward the Under, has balanced odds on each side, and I think it's worth backing the Over here.
The Texas Rangers will be up against a left-handed starter for the second consecutive game. The Angels have a 4-10 record in game two of a series, including 1-5 after a win. The Rangers' third (Lowe) and fourth (Garcia) batters in the previous game went 0-for-8. Texas has seven right-handed hitters in their lineup, and Patrick Sandoval has historically allowed a higher batting average against right-handed hitters (.271) than left-handed hitters (.185). Texas is ranked sixth (+9) in outs above average while the Angles are ranked 29th (-14). I like the Rangers in this spot!
This is a big number for Seth Lugo who has been lights out this season and particularly recently having piled up 34 strikeouts in his last four outings. I would argue that Lugo is running red hot/way above expectations in the K department. If we look at the underlying metrics Lugo is averaging 8.7% SwStr% which is lower than his career average of 9.8%. Lugo does have a favorable matchup against the Oakland As, however this number is high enough where I'm comfortable fading Lugo against almost any opponent.
We have been backing Royals with Lugo on bump all season, as the AL can't really seem to figure him out. He gets a faltering A's lineup here and while I think Ross Stripling is generally underrated, Sally got him twice in 7 ABs and A's pen might be running on fumes. Royals are 6-2 in Lugo's 8 starts in April/May, only losses were to teams leading division at the time (BAL and MIL) and all 6 wins by 2 runs or more. KC has +12 RD in his last 4 starts. A's in 2-11 rut, losing 9 of those games by 2+ runs. Royals are stout at home
Gonna go back to pillaging with wifey out of town, but I saw this number and am like huh? The books clearly don't trust Royals starter Seth Lugo much, and I have to say I can't believe he has been this good at 6-1 with a 1.66 ERA. But until Seth proves us wrong and as long as he's not arrested entering the ballpark, which apparently we can't rule out now, I feel pretty good about this.
Performance basics are not always very complicated...especially if a team isn't scoring runs. "Unders" then become the default recommendation, and why not when it comes to the A's, whose offense has completely stalled in the past ten days, including six losses in a row. In the last five of those, Oakland has scored only nine runs, prompting us to look "under" at every opportunity. Especially tonight, as KC's Seth Lugo 6-1, 1.66 ERA) has been hard to hit for anyone, much less a slumping foe. Our only issue here is if Ross Stripling and the A's bullpen can keep the Royals in relative check. Play A's-Royals "Under"
Lots of us have been waiting almost two months for the buy signal on the Astros and now that we see it, let's continue to ride it. That's now wins in six straight and eight of nine for Houston after winning the opener of this weekend matchup vs. the Brew Crew last night, and now we get a chance to back Justin Verlander, who looks to have quickly rounded back into form after his last start, a sparkling seven innings of 2-hit, shutout ball at Detroit last Saturday. The Astros have outscored foes 36-11 in this win streak, while the Brews are 1-5 their last six away. Play Astros on Run Line
This is a big number for Gore who has failed to record 7+ Ks in five of eight starts this season. He will face a very familiar foe in the Phillies who Gore has faced six times since 2022 and has failed to eclipse 7+ Ks in all six outings. I also like that Gore threw a career high 111 pitches in his last appearance.
Similar play to Fri night - Nats are fading and Gore coming off a start where the manager rode him pretty hard against a lineup that is red hot and knows him pretty well. Phils 17-8 at home and 8 of their last 10 wins are by 2 runs or more. Nats lineup lagging (I bet James Wood gets the call to MLB by Memorial Day). Nats have .594 OPS in May (worst in MLB) with a .201/.293/.301 slashline. I don't love Sanchez on the mound but figure he can battle against this group.
There are plenty of ways to bet on baseball and plenty of sports betting terms to know when it comes to betting America's pastime. Every professional baseball team will play 162 regular season games, providing a wide range of baseball bets and MLB picks for you to consider. If you're new to the world of USA sports betting, you might find yourself overwhelmed by the sports betting terminology and number of sports betting sites available. Below are several baseball betting terms to help you make the best MLB picks this season.
Money line:The money line is the simplest and most common type of bet in baseball betting. You’re betting on one team to win outright. If a favorite is -150 on the money line, a $150 bet on that team to win outright would return $100. Conversely, if a team is a +200 underdog, a $100 bet would return $200.
Run line:The run line is a type of point spread bet in baseball. Instead of betting on which team will win the game, you bet on the margin of victory. One team is usually listed as a 1.5-run favorite. The other team is listed as a 1.5-run underdog, with corresponding odds attached to both MLB spreads.
Total (Over/Under):The Over/Under, also referred to as the total, is how many combined runs teams are expected to score in a baseball game. If the Over/Under is set at 8.5, then any combined score lower than that would make the Under cash. Nine or more runs is a win for the Over in your MLB picks.
Futures:Futures are long-term bets that won't resolve on the day they are placed. They are often placed preseason or in-season, and a popular baseball futures bet is picking which team will win the championship. Another is using the Over/Under, except in regards to a team's end-of-season win total. For example, the bar for the number of wins for New York’s pro baseball team could be 81.5, and a baseball futures bet is predicting if it will exceed that number.
Parlay:Parlays are simply the selection of two or more baseball picks on a single wager, where all outcomes must be correct in order for the bet to win. Although risky, parlays remain popular because of the potential to win large sums with minimal investments.
Prop (or proposition) bet:If you are looking for a fun way to bet on baseball, a prop bet is right for you. With a prop bet, you can wager on MLB picks like how many strikeouts a pitcher will record or whether a player will hit a home run.
First five innings (F5):A popular bet in baseball, first five innings (F5) is a wager on which team will be winning when five innings have been completed.
Team totals:The total, or Over/Under, usually refers to how many combined runs both teams score in a game, but team totals are popular as well. These are the MLB picks where a bettor will pick Over or Under on how many runs one team scores. If New York’s team total is set at 4.5, any runs total of five or higher would cash the Over, while anything fewer than five results in a win for the Under.
NRFI (No Runs First Inning):A popular bet for those who wager on baseball, NRFI stands for 'No Run First Inning.' The bet can be a bit risky considering both teams generally stack their best hitters towards the top of their lineups. The odds on NRFI bets are variable mostly depending on the quality of pitchers.
Player strikeouts:This bet refers to how many times a player will strike out in a single game. The Over/Under for total strikeouts is often 0.5 with adjusted odds for both wagers.
To hit a home run:If you think a player will hit a home run at any point in the game, you can place a bet, often times for a plus-money payout. You can also bet on who hits the first home run of the game.
To record a hit:Every player is assigned a total for hits in a single game, with bettors placing wagers on if they’ll exceed or fall short of the assigned total. For instance, if you place a bet on a player to record Over 1.5 hits, that player will need to finish with two hits for the bet to be a winner. If the player records just one hit, the bet is a loser.
Total bases:Another popular batter props bet is total bases. Bases are awarded on hits only, with the following scoring system: Single = 1 base, Double = 2 bases, Triple = 3 bases and Home Run = 4 bases.
To record an RBI:RBI stands for ‘Run Batted In.” Sportsbooks will offer an Over/Under on how many RBI a player will record in a single game.
1st inning total runs:An Over/Under is set on how many runs will be scored in the first inning. Oftentimes, Sportsbooks set the Over/Under for total runs scored in the first inning at 0.5 or 1.5.
Correct score:Correct score betting involves predicting the final score of a baseball game. These bets are typically hard to predict, which is why they’re often listed at plus-money odds. You can also predict the exact score of each inning at most sportsbooks.
Player performance doubles:This bet is similar to a parlay, meaning it involves two or more wagers. Player performance doubles often feature over/under starting pitcher strikeouts and a money line pick on which team will win outright.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)Q: Can I bet on a baseball game after it has begun?A: Yes, most sportsbooks offer live-betting, meaning you can place wagers on live-updated totals or even the outcome of the next at-bat.
Q: What happens if a baseball game is postponed?A: It will vary by sportsbook, but most will void and refund unless the game is rescheduled within a certain timeframe.
Q: What is a push in baseball sports betting?A: A push means the point spread or point total hits the exact number in which you bet. For example, if the Over/Under is eight runs, and the game finishes 5-3, the bet is a push and will be refunded.
Q: How do I know which team is the favorite?A: The favorite is usually listed with a negative number, while the underdog is listed with a positive number. For instance, if New York is favored to beat Boston, New York will be listed at -135 (risk $135 to win $100). As the underdog, Boston would be listed at +175 (risk $100 to $175).