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Maximize Your Odds of Winning with SportsLine Model and Our Top-Rated Picks
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This Baltimore lineup has been crushing opposing left handed pitchers and as I mentioned this morning on Early Edge, I like the Orioles right handed hitters to get to Andrew Abbott here. He's struggled with home runs to righties, with five given up in 25 innings, and the band box that is Great American Ballpark is not likely to help his cause. Abbott has allowed 30 baserunners in those 25 innings vs righties and should see at least seven of them today. With rain in the forecast, a delay would likely help us out by cutting the starting pitchers' days short, but if not, I still think fading Abbott and his 7% swinging strike rate is the move here.
John Means takes the mound for his season debut, and while he's struggled during his rehab work, I'm more interested in attacking the pitcher on the other side. Andrew Abbott's strikeout rate is down this season after his quality rookie campaign, and he's managed more than four Ks only twice in six starts. He's up against an outstanding Orioles lineup that has posted a 134 OPS+ against southpaws while striking out in less than 23% of plate appearances. At that rate, a pitcher needs to face at least 26 batters to rack up six Ks, something Abbott did three times in 21 starts last year and none this year. In a tough matchup, I don't think it's very likely he'll get the chance today.
As noted on Friday, the Orioles at short prices are going to get our attention this season. Even a rain delay couldn't slow the Birds last night as Cole Irvin stretched his scoreless innings streak to 20 2/3 and Baltimore moved to an AL-best 9-4 on the road by beating the Reds in a rematch of the 1970 World Series. John Means, who has plenty of experience in the O's rotation, has been recalled and will start in place of the injured Grayson Rodriguez, while the Reds' Andrew Abbott is off of a rough start in Texas, giving up a pair of homers in last Sunday's loss at Arlington. Play Orioles on Money Line
This is a tough spot for Andrew Abbott who has been struggling to strike out batters this season. Abbott is sporting a subpar 7.36 K/9 and his underlying metrics do not paint a pretty picture. His SwStr% is just 6.8%, compared to last season when it was 10.9%. Abbott also gets a tough draw versus an Orioles lineup that is ranked in the bottom 10 in K Rate, in addition to being top 10 in OPS against opposing southpaws.