The Orioles have won 7 Straight against the Nationals and they've stayed under 10 straight times. Tonight they meet in Washington with Corbin Burnes starting. He's lost his last two starts after being perfect to start the season. Trevor Williams has won his last three starts and he's only allowed two runs in two starts and zero runs in another start. The Orioles have a four-game win streak. Under is the top play.

A good rule of thumb at the moment seems to be going with the O's whenever the price is reasonable (say -135 or less), even if it means laying the extra run. Having won six of seven and allowed all of eight runs across that span, the Birds are choking off opposition with their pitching, and worse for the Nats is that O's ace Corbin Burnes has pitched in bad luck his past two starts and is overdue to rejoin the win parade for this short drive down I-95. Washington has gotten good mileage from Trevor Williams (2.27 ERA), but he's rarely on the mound past the fifth inning, and hasn't faced the hot Birds as of yet, either. Play Orioles on Run Line

Absolutely have to play something at this price. Believe it or not, Washington's Trevor Williams has a better ERA this season than Baltimore ace and AL Cy Young contender Corbin Burnes. Williams has allowed more than two ER just once. Is that sustainable? Almost surely not, but we'll take the 1.5-run headstart at plus-money at home in a rivalry game.