2023 Women's World Cup soccer odds: USA fortunate to reach knockout round and drops to tournament co-favorite, most likely faces rival Sweden in Round of 16

The United States women's soccer team has been so successful over the years at the World Cup that in addition to winning a record four titles, the Americans have never lost a group-stage match, much less failed to advance. That nearly happened early Tuesday in New Zealand as the USA was fortunate to draw with Portugal 0-0 and move on to the knockout round, where it is most likely will face rival Sweden on Sunday from Australia.

The American women had been 10-0 all-time vs. Portugal with a combined score of 39-0, but the USA couldn't find the net Tuesday to finish as the runner-up in Group E behind the Netherlands, which routed Vietnam on Tuesday to win the group. The USA outshot Portugal 17-6 and did not allow a shot on net.

But the United States would not have advanced had it lost, and that nearly happened in second-half stoppage time when Portugal's Ana Capeta got onto the end of a long pass and fired from inside the box. USWNT goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher dove, but she couldn't reach it. Thankfully for the USA, the near-side post made the save.

"It was a beautiful sound to hear it hit the post, that's for sure," Naeher said afterward. "But that's something we talked about -- we knew they were good on the counterattack and they like to get in behind."

The Americans' four total group stage goals were there fewest in that round at the WWC since 2011 in Germany. That was also the last time the USA didn't win its group. It did reach the final that year but lost to Japan. 

That there was no goal scorer for the USA in the match was priced +1000 at BetMGM, and not a single bettor played it. Over 2.5 goals took heavy action at the book as well. The only time previous time in World Cup history the USWNT failed to score in a group game was a 0-0 draw with Sweden in 2015.

The USA will face the winner of Group G in Melbourne, Australia on Sunday (5 a.m. ET) in its first knockout round match, and it almost surely will be against Sweden. It sits atop Group G and needs only a point against last-place Argentina (match starts 3 a.m. ET Wednesday) to win the group and confirm the matchup.

The world No. 1 Americans are 23-7-12 all-time in the series, but the No. 3 Swedes won the last meeting 3-0 in July 2021 at the (delayed) Tokyo 2020 Olympics to snap the USA's 44-game undefeated streak, the second-longest in USWNT history. It was the first defeat under head coach Vlatko Andonovski.

Asked whether Sweden will be the favorites for the Round of 16 matchup, American star Alex Morgan said simply: "No." The USA will be without another star in midfielder Rose Lavelle, who will miss the game due to yellow card accumulation after receiving a caution in the 39th minute Tuesday, her second yellow card in as many games this tournament.

To win a historic third straight World Cup, the USA has dropped into a +400 co-favored role (was +300) with England (was +450) and Spain (was +600). The Americans are taking easily the most tickets (56.4%) and handle (78.6%) to win. No other country is at 10% on either. 

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