If not the lone NHL game of the night, we probably pass. But it's a good chance to try my new altered strategy (at times): Backing a road team +1 at a cheaper price than the home club on the moneyline if said teams are about even -- which I think these two are. I can't just ignore road teams for the most part all season again. The Lightning earned points in three of four games against Toronto last season and if that happens again, obviously at worst we push. Andrei Vasilevskiy holds a 15-10-2 career record against Toronto with a .921 save percentage and two shutouts.

We have a suspicion that we're not going to be seeing too many 6.5 totals for games involving the Maple Leafs in the coming weeks. Though running into the force of nature otherwise known as the New York Rangers on Saturday, Toronto still produced a scoreline featuring only five goals, and no Leaf scoreline has exceeded six goals yet this season. Solid work in goal, mostly from heretofore unsung Anthony Stolarz (1.79 GAA in four games), has had much to do with the lower scorelines. Stolarz goes tonight, facing Andrei Vasilevskiy (2.52 GAA) in what could well turn into a real goalie battle at Scotiabank. Play Lightning-Leafs Under