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Tue 07/06 | 12:00 AM UTC | Montreal
SpreadMoney Lineo/u
Tampa Bay Lightning 51-26, +289 ML
TB -1.5
TB -145
Over 5
Montreal Canadiens 36-40, -243 ML
MON +1.5
MON +125
Under 5

Expert Picks

Tampa Bay 2 @ Montreal 3 | 07/06 | 12:00 AM UTC

Tampa Bay -157

LOSS

ANALYSIS: Bit of a tough call here as you know the Lightning would prefer to clinch the Cup on home ice and the players might be a little tired of being in that Montreal bubble due to COVID restrictions. One figures the Habs come out firing with nothing to lose -- that also could weaken their defense in front of Carey Price. He's a future Hall of Famer but has been very shaky in this series with a 4.38 GAA and a .835 save percentage. Some had speculated Jake Allen might get the call in Game 4, but it will be Price. I simply can't come up with enough reasons to justify picking Montreal with the talent gap between these teams. Maybe if the Canadiens had a full building of fans. And the puckline on the Habs at -200 is simply not worth it. Tampa sweeps to repeat, and we'll see you in October when we can cherry-pick the best regular-season games and get our numbers up near +4000 again.

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Matt Severance

Severance Pays
+1894 151-95 IN LAST 246 NHL ML PICKS
+861 17-7 IN LAST 24 TB ML PICKS
+268 4-1 IN LAST 5 MON ML PICKS

Season Splits

51-26, +289 ML
36-40, -243 ML
All Games
ALL
All Games
66%
51-26, +284
36-40, -245
47%
On Road
LOCATION
At Home
57%
22-16, -188
18-19, -265
48%
As Favorite
STATUS
As Underdog or Even
66%
48-24, +202
18-20, +575
47%
When Line was -175 to -145
MONEY LINE
When Line was +125 to +155
57%
15-11, -168
5-5, +190
50%
As Road Favorite
LOCATION & STATUS
As Home Underdog
57%
19-14, -270
6-7, +126
46%
vs Teams That Win 45-55% of Games
OPP WIN%
vs Teams That Win >55% of Games
84%
11-2, +385
19-23, +289
45%
vs Teams Allowing 2.6 to 2.9 GPG
OPP DEFENSE
vs Teams Allowing <2.6 GPG
67%
21-10, +362
9-7, +805
56%
After a Day Off
REST
After a Day Off
67%
46-22, +391
31-32, +244
49%
vs MON
HEAD TO HEAD
vs TB
100%
3-0, +180
0-3, -300
0%
when Andrei Vasilevskiy starts
PROJECTED STARTER
when Carey Price starts
73%
46-17, +911
24-21, +596
53%