The Islanders went up 3-0 going into the third period in their last game only to give up two quick goals in third period. Had it not been for a miraculous goal line save the Lightning would have tied it up and sent it to OT. I don’t think the Lightning will start as slow as they did in the last game, and I also don’t think Semyon Varlamov can steal a game in Tampa Bay. Amalie Arena will be rockin and the Islanders have been worse on the road all season. Take the Lightning to go up 3-2.

Big number against a very capable Islanders team, but NYI is -175 on the puckline so that's not really much better value. The Lightning haven't lost back-to-back games in these playoffs. Tampa has just two losses in its past 80 games (going back a few seasons obviously) after scoring two goals or fewer in its previous game.

My model says the Islanders cover in almost 70 percent of the simulations, so you're getting excellent value with them at this number. Three of the first four games of this series were decided by one goal, including both of New York's victories. Only two if the Islanders' six defeats this postseason have been by more than one tally. Expect New York to at least keep things close again in Game 5. Take the Islanders +1.5 goals at -175.