The Leafs are 6-3-1 in their last 10 games and they are 16-12-1 on the road this season. The Sabres have seriously struggled as of late to a 4-5-1 record, although they are better at home with a 17-10-4 record. The Leafs have won two of the three matchups between these two teams this season, and they have won six of the last seven between these teams. The Maple Leafs lead the league in road goals per game at 3.69 while the Sabres only average 3.13 goals per game at home. Neither team is very good at penalty killing but the Maple Leafs have the fifth best road power play in the league at 25.0% effectiveness. Take the Leafs.

The Maple Leafs have won the past two meetings, holding the Sabres to four goals combined in those games, and seven of the past head-to-head matchups. I have Toronto winning nearly 70 percent of simulations, so I'm willing to lay this price.