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New England -2.5 NE -2.5

New England 13 vs L.A. Rams 3
2/03
NE 13 vs LAR 3
2/03
WIN

There is no greater irony in Super Bowl LIII than this: While franchises are climbing all over each other to hire Sean McCoy clones as head coach, if you swapped coaches here, the Rams would be favored. There is Bill Belichick, and there is everyone else. Give the master two weeks to game-plan, even against an offense as dynamic as L.A.?s, and surely he will come up with a checkmate. Rams QB Jared Goff can be excellent, but also mediocre. Here?s a guess that Patriots defenders will jam the L.A. receivers and force Goff into quick -- and risky -- decisions. If Rams defenders can get to QB Tom Brady, victory awaits. Yet, for the most part, Brady?s rapid-fire release and his team?s improved ground game mean nobody lays a hand on him. Who can argue against the fact that the Rams carry measurably more talent? But with the stakes piled high, to choose anyone other than B&B is foolhardy. Belichick and Brady prevail, yet again.

7-2 IN LAST 9 NE ATS PICKS | +474

10-7 IN LAST 17 LAR ATS PICKS | +222

UNDER 56.5 UNDER 56.5

New England 13 vs L.A. Rams 3
2/03
NE 13 vs LAR 3
2/03
WIN

These have been two of the best offenses in the NFL all season long but I don't expect either offense to have an amazing performance in this game. More than anything, I see the Rams struggling to move the ball consistently against a Patriots defense that will figure out a way to slow down its run game. It won't be a boring game by any stretch, but it won't feature as many points as this total suggests, either.

2-0-1 IN LAST 3 LAR O/U PICKS | +200

New England -2.5 NE -2.5

New England 13 vs L.A. Rams 3
2/03
NE 13 vs LAR 3
2/03
WIN

Every bone in my body is telling me to take the Rams and the points in this game, but I just can't do it. Count me amongst the public in this game, because I think that Bill Belichick will take away the Rams rushing attack in this game and force Jared Goff to beat him. Goff's capable of doing it, but not often enough to warrant taking the Rams and the points. The Patriots OL will neutralize Aaron Donald and the Rams pass rush, giving Tom Brady all the time he needs to find whichever Patriots receiver the Rams are leaving open, and he'll pick them apart like he picks everybody apart.

3-2 IN LAST 5 NE ATS PICKS | +68

UNDER 56.5 UNDER 56.5

New England 13 vs L.A. Rams 3
2/03
NE 13 vs LAR 3
2/03
WIN

The last two Super Bowls have been high scoring, and the over-under of 56.5 in this one suggests that oddsmakers understand the rise of creative offenses and how dangerous these two specific units are. The Under has hit in 20 of the 36 games these two teams have played this year, and I fully expect both to come out slow like heavyweight boxers in a title fight. That will be enough to go under the total -- although it will be dicey at the end.

New England -2.5 NE -2.5

New England 13 vs L.A. Rams 3
2/03
NE 13 vs LAR 3
2/03
WIN

The Patriots tend to play close Super Bowls, so from that standpoint I understand the line here. And the Rams have an elite defensive line. But where they're vulnerable, the linebacking corps, is where the Patriots love to attack. Look for New England to use its running backs as receivers a ton in this game. Back the Pats.

11-6-2 IN LAST 19 LAR ATS PICKS | +436

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