Titans vs. Packers Thursday NFL Week 11 odds, trends: Bettors with slight lean on Green Bay, huge on Derrick Henry touchdown

Tennessee visits Green Bay tonight to kick off Week 11.
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The Green Bay Packers have won nine consecutive primetime matchups at Lambeau Field and put that streak on the line tonight against the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans. The Packers, who temporarily saved their season on Sunday with a win over Dallas, are 3-point favorites at Caesars Sportsbook and the total is 41 points. Temperatures will be in the low 20s with a 21% chance of snow. Bettors are crushing three player props on Titans running back Derrick Henry. Click here for expert picks.

This is the first time Green Bay will play an AFC opponent in a Thursday night contest. Under head coach Matt LaFleur, Green Bay is 10-1 at home in primetime, a .900 winning percentage. That's the best mark in the NFL since 2019. Also since then, the Packers have five games with at least 35 points and seven with at least 400 yards at home in prime time, both No. 1 in the NFL.

At BetMGM, 60% of the handle and 54% of the tickets are on the Packers, who opened at -2.5. In the Mike Vrabel era, the Titans are 23-14 (62%) against the spread as underdogs and 22-9 (71%) ATS as 'dogs of 3 or more points

The total opened at 40.5 but has risen a half-point despite 58% of bets and 54% of the money coming in on the Under. Tennessee is now +140 on the moneyline and taking 68% of bets and 37% of the money. This will be the first game this season with a below-freezing kickoff temperature.

Aaron Rodgers, who is 23-8 in games in his career with below-freezing temperatures, has yet to pass for 300 yards in a game this season but apparently will get back one of his favorite targets in wideout Randall Cobb. Cobb had caught 18 passes for 257 yards before exiting Week 6 with an ankle injury and landing on injured reserve.

As for Henry, he is second in the NFL with 923 rushing yards. His five-game streak of running for at least 100 ended Sunday in a win vs. Denver in quarterback Ryan Tannehill's return from a two-game injury absence. Henry will face a Green Bay defense that ranks No. 28 against the run. The three most-wagered player props at BetMGM as of this writing are on Henry to score the game's first touchdown at +400, to score an anytime TD at -200 and to go Over 99.5 rushing yards at -120.

Tannehill is 1-3 in his career in games with below-freezing temperatures, but the Titans have won his past five starts overall this year. Tennessee has covered the spread in seven straight games, the longest active streak in NFL and the team's longest since 2007-08 (eight straight).

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