Super Bowl 57 odds: Bills lose favored role for first time as surging Chiefs take over atop board

For the first time in the 2022 NFL season at Caesars Sportsbook, the Buffalo Bills are not the favorites to win Super Bowl 57 on Feb. 12, 2023, at State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. In large part due to the injury former MVP favorite Josh Allen is playing through, the Bills are now +450 second favorites behind the Kansas City Chiefs (+400), who have won five straight games. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is the favorite to win MVP.

Buffalo's lowest Super Bowl odds at any point this season came when it was +230 from Oct. 31 to Nov. 6. After losing to the New York Jets and Allen suffering his elbow injury on Nov. 6, those odds rose to +270 and have steadily been climbing ever since. Since the team's Week 7 bye, Allen has completed just 59.6% of his passes for 1,203 yards with six touchdowns and seven picks.

"The big reason for the Chiefs becoming Super Bowl favorites is the Josh Allen factor," said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. "We just don't know if we'll see the same Josh Allen that we saw before the injury. Obviously he's not 100%, and we don't know the extent of it and if it'll get any better. Usually injuries like that, they don't get better and continuing to play can make it worse. The Bills also have some tough games down the stretch, and the Chiefs have a pretty favorable schedule. But it's those question marks about Allen and the Bills offense that has caused a flip of the favorites, and rightfully so."

Were the playoffs to start today, the Bills (8-3) would be a wild-card team. The Chiefs (9-2) would be the AFC's top seed. Buffalo's past two postseasons ended in Kansas City, so it was a point of emphasis to earn home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs – Buffalo did win 24-20 in K.C. in Week 6 so it would have the potential head-to-head tiebreaker if it came down to that. The Chiefs haven't lost since.

The Bills still are tops at the book in tickets at 11.1% and handle at 16.3% to win Super Bowl 57. The Chiefs are third in both categories at 6.4% and 7.9%, respectively, while the 49ers are second with 6.8% of the tickets and 9.2% of the handle. Among all Super Bowl bets placed solely in November, Buffalo is seventh in tickets at 5.5% and sixth in handle at 6.0%. The 49ers are first in tickets (14.1%) and handle (21.9%) this month, with the Chiefs second in tickets (9.4%) and fourth in handle (10.5%).

Buffalo visits New England on Thursday this week and there's no doubt Allen will play continue to play through the reported UCL injury. He was listed as a full participant in practice on Monday for the first time since getting hurt in Week 9.

"His injury impacts everything," Pullen said. "Totals in Bills games for sure, their offense figures to not be as good if he's not at full strength. The Bills have still been putting up points over the last couple weeks, but it remains to be seen how it will affect him as the season goes along. It's going to be interesting to make a lot of the Bills props now, because Allen's numbers are going to be drastically lower with the injury if he's not throwing as much. Any time a quarterback is injured, it filters down to the receivers as well."

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