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Super Bowl 56 odds: San Francisco 49ers best betting value in NFC via SportsLine Projection Model

The SportsLine Projection Model has forecast the NFC playoffs.
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The San Francisco 49ers were down 17-0 on Sunday at the Los Angeles Rams and the Niners' playoff hopes looked nearly dead in the water, but they were able to rally past Los Angeles 27-24 in overtime to earn the NFC's final wild-card spot. To win Super Bowl 56, Coach Kyle Shanahan's team is a longer shot at +2500 (equates to 3.8 percent) via Caesars Sportsbook but with a 5.4 percent chance of winning it via the SportsLine Projection Model, the Niners are the best betting value in the NFC

When San Francisco was down 17-3 at the half Sunday, the model gave the Niners just a seven percent chance of winning. After a 2-5 start, the 49ers won eight of their final 10 games to qualify for the postseason, beating three playoff teams in the process.

They are 3-point underdogs on Sunday at the NFC East champion Dallas Cowboys and given a 45.2 percent chance to win via the model. While the Dallas defense was hugely improved this year thanks in large part to Defensive Rookie of the Year lock Micah Parsons, that unit was below average against the run in allowing 4.5 yards per carry.

That's right in the Niners' wheelhouse with rookie running back Elijah Mitchell and wideout Deebo Samuel, who has been used often in the backfield since Week 10. Since then, Samuel has tied for the league high with 11 touchdowns and ranked No. 4 in yards from scrimmage (1,006). It's not clear if San Francisco will have Pro Bowl left tackle Trent Williams in Dallas after he missed Sunday's win due to injury.

"I would definitely say the Niners will be the biggest public underdog this week," said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading for Caesars Sportsbook. "Obviously the spread is the closest, but the Niners have played very well down the stretch. In Nevada we always draw a lot of Niner money no matter what. Cowboys have impressed all season too and it's a great matchup, that's why the line is where it's at."

Sunday is the eighth playoff meeting between Dallas and San Francisco, but the first since Jan. 15, 1995 – a memorable NFC Championship Game that saw the 49ers beat Cowboys 38-28. Dallas' 54.8 percent chance of winning this game is the lowest of any home team on wild-card weekend.

In addition to airing on CBS, this game also will be available on Paramount+, Nickelodeon and Amazon Prime Video.

NFC                     WC                  DIV            CONF ODDS               CONF           SB ODDS               SB
Packers 100.00% 61.60% +170 (37%) 36.20% +380 (20.8%) 18.40%
Buccaneers 71.40% 42.70% +360 (21.7%) 21.20% +800 (11.1%) 11.30%
Cowboys 54.80% 24.10% +600 (14.3%) 12.40% +1200 (7.7%) 5.90%
Rams 56.60% 20.40% +450 (18.2%) 7.60% +900 (10%) 3.60%
Cardinals 43.40% 18.80% +1100 (8.3%) 8.80% +2200 (4.3%) 4.30%
49ers 45.20% 22.90% +1200 (7.7%) 11.40% +2500 (3.8%) 5.40%
Eagles 28.60% 9.60% +3000 (3.2%) 2.50% +6000 (1.6%) 1.00%

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Matt SeveranceSeverance Pays