New York Jets 2023 NFL schedule analysis, odds: Aaron Rodgers' Week 1 debut on Monday night September 11 anniversary vs. Buffalo

There had been speculation leading into Thursday night's 2023 NFL schedule release that the league would ensure that two New York teams would face off in the Monday-night opener because it falls on Sept. 11, obviously a significant 22nd anniversary in this country and in New York City. The speculation was correct, but instead of Giants vs. Jets in Week 1 it will be Buffalo (technically the only team that plays in New York State) visiting Gang Green in Aaron Rodgers' team debut. DraftKings has opened the Bills at -3.

Expect the Jets to get the maximum number of prime-time games allowed now that Rodgers is on board. The Jets had just one prime-time game in 2022, their league-mandated Thursday Night Football matchup vs. Jacksonville.

It will be the team's first Monday night appearance under coach Robert Saleh, entering his third season. They last opened a season at home in prime time on Sept. 11, 2011, a 27-24 win over the Dallas Cowboys. The Jets have lost seven straight games in prime time, with their last win coming in the 2018 opener in Detroit on Monday night.

Buffalo and New York split last season, with New York pulling off a 20-17 home upset in Week 9 despite a mere 154 yards passing from now-backup quarterback Zach Wilson. Josh Allen had arguably his worst passing game of the season, going just 18-for-34 for 205 yards and two picks, but he did rush for 86 yards and two scores.

Rodgers is 2-2 against the Bills in his career and 1-1 against Allen after Buffalo beat visiting Green Bay 27-17 in Week 8 last year. Buffalo went 5-0 in primetime games last season.

In addition, New York will play in the league's first-ever Black Friday game on Nov. 24, the day after Thanksgiving, against the visiting Miami Dolphins with a 3 p.m. ET kickoff on Amazon Prime. The Jets opened at -2.5.

The Jets catch a major break this season in that one of their "road" games is against the Giants at MetLife Stadium – rumors are that the game will be in Week 8 – so essentially Rodgers & Co. have 10 home games. There had been speculation that the Jets would visit Dallas on Thanksgiving in what would have been a rating bonanza after Giants-Cowboys last Thanksgiving set viewership records, but with the Jets playing Black Friday that's not an option. 

Jets NFL futures odds via DraftKings

• To win Super Bowl 58: +1400
• To win AFC: +900
• To win AFC East: +230
• To make the playoffs: Yes -150, No +130
• Over/Under win total: 9.5 (Over -145 favorite)
• To win NFL MVP: Rodgers is +1600

Jets 2023 Schedule

• Week 1 vs. Bills: New York snapped a four-game home losing streak in the series with last year's 20-17 win as a 10.5-point underdog.
• Week 12 vs. Dolphins (Black Friday): NY snapped a two-game home losing streak in the series with last year's 40-17 rout as a 3-point underdog.
• Week 8 at Giants: Team last met in the regular season on Nov. 10, 2019, with the Jets winning 31-24 when both clubs were pretty bad. 
• TBD vs. New England
• TBD vs. Kansas City
• TBD vs. LA Chargers
• TBD vs. Philadelphia
• TBD vs. Washington
• TBD vs. Houston
• TBD vs. Atlanta
• TBD at Buffalo
• TBD at Miami
• TBD at New England
• TBD at Denver:  Third straight season in the Mile High City for New York.
• TBD at Las Vegas: Jets' first-ever game in Vegas, which also hosts Super Bowl 58.
• TBD at Dallas
• TBD at Cleveland: Jets had one of the most unlikely comeback wins in league history Week 2 last year in Cleveland, trailing 30-17 with 1:55 remaining left in the fourth quarter but winning 31-30.
  

Schedule notes

By opponents' 2022 winning percentage, the Jets have the league's sixth-toughest schedule in 2023 as its foes were a combined 155-129-3 (.545) last year. Sharp Football Analysis rated strength of schedule by opponents' averaging betting win total for 2023. New York has only the 25th toughest by that metric. It will face six playoff teams from last season: the Bills (twice), Dolphins (twice), Chiefs, Eagles, Cowboys and Giants.

The Jets and the three other AFC East teams will face teams from the AFC West and NFC East in 2023. With their fourth-place divisional finish in 2022, the Jets will also face the fourth-place finishers in the AFC North, the Browns, and the NFC South, the Falcons.

The only way we could get to see Rodgers take on Green Bay would be in Super Bowl 58 from Las Vegas. That it's a Jets-Packers matchup is a +30000 long shot.

Should Rodgers win his fifth NFL MVP Award this season, he would tie the record held by Peyton Manning. The Jets are one of a handful of franchises to never have an NFL MVP; Namath won two MVPs in the old AFL.

DK as a few Jets parlay specials, including: Rodgers to throw for at least 4,000 yards (he didn't in 2022) and the team to make the playoffs at +175; Rodgers with four rushing TDs and New York with 10 wins at +250; Rodgers with at least 31 passing TDs and NY to win the AFC East at +300; and new receiver Allen Lazard, also formerly from the Packers, with nine TD catches and New York to win the Super Bowl at +2500. 

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