Dolphins vs. Bills NFL Wild Card Weekend odds: Spread jumps, total sinks with Tua Tagovailoa out, Skylar Thompson likely at quarterback for Miami

The Miami Dolphins are in the postseason for the first time since 2016, but oddsmakers expect the stay to be short. The Dolphins have ruled out starting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for a third straight game due to a concussion, and with Teddy Bridgewater still dealing with a dislocated finger, the team is preparing as if seventh-round rookie Skylar Thompson will start Sunday's wild card matchup in Buffalo. That Thompson news has jumped the spread from Bills -9 to -13 and the total from 46.5 to 43.5 at Caesars Sportsbook.

Miami went 8-5 and averaged 25.5 points when Tagovailoa started this season. Conversely, it went 1-3 and averaged 16.3 points when Bridgewater or Thompson started. Thompson was under center in Week 18 when the Dolphins had to beat the visiting Jets for any playoff chance (and have New England lose in Buffalo), and Miami wound up winning an ugly 11-6 affair. Thompson was decent in a conservative game plan, completing 20 of 31 for 152 yards with no touchdowns or picks for rating of 76.3. He rushed three times for three yards. While it was Thompson's sixth time seeing the field this season, it was the first time he played a game from start to finish.

Bridgewater is still working his way back from a dislocated pinkie finger on his throwing hand, and his possible availability is unclear. He did serve as the theoretical backup in Week 18, but the team also signed nine-year veteran Mike Glennon to its practice squad last week. If Bridgewater was able to start here, most oddsmakers project this spread would drop to around Buffalo -10.

Miami is given a team total of just 14.5 points scored at DraftKings, the fewest of any wild card team. Buffalo is set at 27.5.  That Dolphins-Bills is the highest-scoring game of the six is +500 and lowest scoring +400. The Dolphins are +200 favorites to be the lowest-scoring team.

The Dolphins are the first team in NFL history to make the postseason with a 0-4 or worse record in December. They are seeking their first playoff win since the 2000 wild card game vs. the Colts, the second-longest active drought without a playoff win ahead of the Lions (1991).

Rather amazingly, there likely will now be two seventh-round rookie QBs starting a wild card game. Brock Purdy, the final pick of the 2022 draft, will be under center for the 49ers on Saturday vs. Seattle. Purdy, from Iowa State, and Thompson, from Kansas State, played each other in the Big 12.

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