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Carson Wentz trade to Colts odds fallout: Wentz slightly improves Indianapolis' NFL 2021 futures per oddsmakers, SportsLine Projection Model

The Eagles have traded former franchise QB Carson Wentz to the Indianapolis Colts.
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The bidding war between the Indianapolis Colts and Chicago Bears for Eagles quarterback Carson Wentz has been won by the Colts as they have traded a 2021 third-round pick and a conditional 2022 second-round pick that could turn into a first to Philadelphia for Wentz, who reunites with Indianapolis head coach Frank Reich – the QB's former offensive coordinator in Philly. While Wentz is a big name, there wasn't a massive shift on the Colts' NFL futures odds at William Hill Sportsbook or on their simulations via the SportsLine Projection Model.

On Thursday morning at William Hill, the Colts were +2500 to win Super Bowl 56, +1300 to win the AFC and +110 co-favorites in the AFC South with the defending champion Titans. Now, Indy is +2200, +1200 and +105, respectively.

The SportsLine Projection Model forecasted the Colts (see bottom) to win 9.4 games (in a 16-game schedule, but the NFL is expected to go to 17 this season and beyond) with an 81.6 percent chance of making the playoffs and 5.8 percent chance of winning Super Bowl 56 if Jacoby Brissett was the team's starting QB in 2021. Brissett was used because 2020 starter Philip Rivers retired, but Brissett is a free agent and now surely won't be brought back. With Wentz, the Colts go to 9.7 wins with an 85.5 percent chance of the playoffs and 8 percent chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Wentz reportedly preferred to go to Indianapolis over Chicago because of his relationship with Reich – Wentz's best NFL season was in 2017 when Reich was his OC in Philadelphia. That year, Wentz led the league in total QBR (78.5) and threw an Eagles franchise record 33 touchdown passes. He would get hurt late in the season, though, and Nick Foles would lead Philly to its first Super Bowl title.

There's also the fact the Colts have a Super Bowl-caliber roster after winning 11 games last season with Rivers at quarterback. Indy pushed the Bills to the limit in the wild card round before losing 27-24 in Buffalo.

There's no question the Eagles are selling low on Wentz, the former No. 2 overall pick who begins the first year of his four-year, $128 million extension this year. Wentz was 3-8-1 as starter last season and had a league-high 19 turnovers despite playing just the 12 games. Wentz's passer rating of 72.8 was ahead of only the Jets' Sam Darnold among qualifying QBs – now that Wentz has been traded, Darnold could be next. To be fair to Wentz, he was behind a porous offensive line and sacked an NFL-high 50 times.

Overall, Wentz is 35-32-1 as regular-season starter in the NFL and 31-36-1 against the spread. His lone playoff start was very brief following the 2019 season when Wentz was knocked out after two series of a 17-9 home loss to Seattle in the wild card round on a dirty hit by Jadeveon Clowney.

The first two picks of the 2016 NFL Draft have already been dealt this offseason with the Lions sending Jared Goff (No. 1 overall) to Detroit in the Matthew Stafford trade a few weeks ago.

Indianapolis doesn't play Philadelphia in the 2021 NFL regular season. Now that the Bears have lost out on Wentz, don't be surprised if they pursue Teddy Bridgewater. 

COLTS WIN   WIN%       DIVISION   PLAYOFF   CONF     CHAMP
w/Brissett   9.4 58.80% 64.60% 81.60% 11.60% 5.80%
w/Wentz       9.7 60.60% 70.40% 85.50% 14.70% 8.00%
Difference      0.3 1.90% 5.80% 3.90% 3.10% 2.20%

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is also up more than $8,400 on top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it enters Week 9 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 83-48 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen HUGE returns.

Matt Severance
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