Bills vs. Patriots Thursday NFL Week 13 odds, trends: Bettors backing Buffalo, Josh Allen to throw interception

The Buffalo Bills almost never beat the New England Patriots when Tom Brady was with the Pats, but the quarterback tides have changed in this rivalry. The Bills now clearly have the better signal-caller in Josh Allen over Mac Jones. The teams meet for the first time this season tonight with Buffalo a 3.5-point favorite at BetMGM. The Bills are taking heavy action at the book – as is Allen to throw an interception. Click here for model picks. 

Last season, these teams split in the regular season with each winning on the road – the one in Buffalo was a weather nightmare with high winds. The Bills then obliterated the visiting Patriots 47-17 in a Wild Card game. Allen set a team playoff record with five touchdown passes. The margin of defeat was the largest in the playoffs for New England in coach Bill Belichick's tenure, which began in 2000.

This spread opened at -5.5 but is down to -3.5 despite Buffalo taking 77% of the bets and 75% of the money on the spread. The total has dropped from 44.5 to 43.5 despite 67% of the bets and 59% of the money being on the Over.

Allen is 5-2-1 against the spread in his career against Belichick. Eli Manning (5-0 ATS) is only other quarterback with as many ATS wins against the legendary coach. Allen is also 11-3 straight up and 10-4 ATS in career prime-time games. Finally, Allen is tied for the NFL lead with 11 picks this season and 95% of money is on Allen Over 0.5 (-145) interceptions tonight.

The MVP candidate has at least 300 passing yards, three TDs and zero picks in three of his past four games against the Patriots.  Nobody else has done that more than once against a Belichick-coached team. The only game Allen didn't reach those totals was the one in Buffalo last season with those severe winds.

Stefon Diggs has four touchdown catches in his past three games against New England. The most-wagered player prop at BetMGM tonight is on Diggs to score the game's first TD at +550, followed by Buffalo running back Devin Singletary for an anytime TD at +125, and New England tailback Rhamondre Stevenson Over 35.5 receiving yards at -110. Stevenson should be busy tonight as fellow running back Damien Harris is out with a thigh injury.

New England also could be very thin on the offensive line. Already missing starting right tackle Isaiah Wynn, left tackle Trent Brown (illness) and his backup, Yodny Cajuste (calf), are both questionable.

Buffalo is without its best pass-rusher and likely future Hall-of-Famer Von Miller after he injured his knee in the Thanksgiving win in Detroit. The Bills can become the first team since the 2000-02 New York Jets to win three straight road games in New England.

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