FanDuel. Geno Smith’s old friend, Tyler Lockett, stepped right into the vacated slot receiver role with Jakobi Meyers shipped off to the Jaguars. Lockett is not Meyers, but he did assume an 80% route share, 21% first read rate, and lead the Raiders in targets. I do expect Brock Bowers to assume the leading receiver role tonight, but it should be a solid matchup for Lockett against the heavy zone coverage of the Cowboys. Dallas has allowed the second most yards per game to wide receivers (170.6).

Kavontae Turpin has seen his role as a receiver decrease since CeeDee Lamb returned, catching four passes in three games. The Cowboys have a ton of weapons led by Lamb, George Pickens, Jake Ferguson. With the Cowboys expected to control this game, look for Turpin to be used sparingly on offense.

After Geno Smith limped through a painful effort in last week’s loss to the Broncos, I’m being a contrarian and taking his rushing props. Smith said his quad already feels “a lot better” three days ago. Naturally, I feel obligated to sprinkle the anytime TD if my sneaky rushing yards angle comes through. Smith runs for 10+ yards and scores his first rushing TD of the season tonight… book it! .25u sprinkle at most.

I think Geno Smith’s quad will be just fine after the extra rest from the mini-bye week. Even if the bruise still bothers him, he may have no choice but to run in this game. This struggling Raiders offensive line will be without their best players in RG Jackson Powers-Johnson and LT Kolton Miller. The Cowboys pass rush will be improved with DE Quinnen Willams and LB DeMarvion Overshown. Smith is over this rush yards number in 4/9 games this season, but had 7 & 8 yards in two of the misses. He has 3+ rush attempts in 6/9 games this season. I think Geno can hobble his way to 9 yards in this game. Kinda want to ladder this to 25+ (+415)

The Raiders are proving an especially hard watch as the offense remains stuck in neutral. Perhaps OC Chip Kelly is soon to take a fall for the ongoing problems but troubles seem to run deeper, such as the wideouts simply not getting open, and Geno Smith often forced to make plays on the move. The downfield passing game is mostly limited to short-to-intermediate throws to TE Brock Bowers. The Dallas defense provides some avenues for Geno and also RB Ashton Jeanty, but the Raiders have scored single digits in three of their last five. The LV defense, however, was very robust a week ago in Denver, so Dak Prescott & Co might find navigating difficult. Play Cowboys-Raiders Under

70% of the betting handle is on the Over, yet the line just ticked down a point. The Cowboys certainly have the offensive firepower to run this score up, but I don’t think the Raiders are a dance partner that can get this total into the 50’s. Dallas should get a defensive boost with their acquisitions of DE Quinnen Williams and LB Logan Wilson, along with the return of impact LB DeMarvion Overshown. The Raiders are 6-3 to the Under this season, and both of these teams come into this game on extended rest, which also trends to the Under. I expect the Cowboys defense to play with emotion and energy in honor of their late teammate Marshawn Kneeland. This game stays under.

The Cowboys play a second straight Monday night game, sandwiched around a bye, and we'll get to see their two new defensive acquisitions for the first time. Neither plays in the secondary, so they're not likely to fix a unit that is giving up the second-most yards per game to receivers. Lockett was the team's No. 1 receiving option against the Broncos following the trade of Jakobi Meyers, and we'll see if that continues here. Even if he doesn't get six targets, he could top this yardage in half that workload, considering how poorly the Cowboys' secondary has played. Or he could do it on a single play if Geno Smith is committed to attacking deep. I'd play this up to 29.5.

FanDuel. George Pickens has cleared this receiving yards line in four of five full games with CeeDee Lamb this season. Lamb is still the Cowboys lead receiver, but this matchup favors Pickens. The Raiders employ cover 3 coverage at the league’s second highest rate (45%, per Fantasy Points Data), and it’s a coverage that Pickens has had more success against compared to Lamb (2.42 yards per route run compared to Lamb’s 1.68 in the games they’ve played together). The Raiders also allow the fourth most receiving yards per game to outside receivers (126.4) at the fifth highest yards per route run (2.29). I have Pickens slated for eight targets and pushing 80 receiving yards. I’d bet this up to over 68.5 receiving yards.

The total for Monday night's game is 50.5, which is an obscene NFL total for any game, but which makes sense in this matchup given the lack of defense played by the Raiders and Cowboys. We're going to look to the side here, though, because the Cowboys are just laying too many points with their inability to stop teams and the Raiders playing at home. When you've got a massive total like this, it's not uncommon to see the teams go back and forth with the game ending up with one team kicking a field goal to win. I think that's probably the case here, and if the Raiders can get a lead early, we feel great about holding them with a field goal plus.

Look, sometimes we just don't need to overthink things. CeeDee Lamb is an elite football player. The Cowboys are an elite offense. The Raiders are not an elite defense. This game has a massive total. It's being played indoors. Prior to that nasty TNF game in Denver, Las Vegas gave up eight catches to Parker Washington and seven catches to Rashee Rice. The Cowboys will want to run the ball a bunch in this game and Javonte Williams could have a massive game. But they're a pass-heavy team who will likely be in a shootout, which means plenty of looks for Lamb, who has 30 targets since returning from injury and has cleared this number twice in those three games.

Bowers obviously needs a little help (hello, Geno) to score here, but this is a really good spot and great value at even money. Since returning from injury, Bowers has one great game (three touchdowns) and one terrible game (three targets). The big difference in those games is he played a meh defense (Jacksonville) and played a great defense (Denver). The Cowboys are a meh defense. But they are a meh defense that will load up to stop Jeanty in the red zone, which should open up the opportunity for Bowers to sneak out on some play-action looks and score. With his potential usage in a high-total game, I absolutely want to be on any even- or plus-money touchdown opportunity for the superstar tight end.

Ferguson is just good value at this number despite a lower usage with CeeDee Lamb back in the fold. Ferguson is a favorite goal-line of Dak Prescott, ranking sixth in the NFL in red-zone targets. He's been extremely reliable in these spots, catching more than 70 percent of his 14 targets and turning them into five scores. Inside the 10-yard line, he's got eight targets for four touchdowns on the year, meaning if the Raiders stack the box and slow down the run game at all near the end zone, Ferguson is very likely to get a look or two over the course of his high-scoring game.

Tucker has hit over this number -- which is lower than the rest of the market by a full two yards -- in four of his last five games. The only one he didn't was the white-flag game against the Chiefs, who play a style of defense designed to prevent deep shots. The Cowboys LOVE to give up the deep ball, surrendering 20+ yard catches to multiple receivers -- two receivers on the Cardinals before the bye, THREE on the Broncos in Week 8, three to the depleted Commies in Week 7, two to the Panthers in Week 6 -- in each of their last four games. I'd expect this number to climb all day before kickoff.

Locking in the Cowboys at a field goal was key, as there's no telling what might happen late in the game given the extensive problems with their defense. The weaponry and general offensive success should shine for Dallas coming off the bye week with reinforcements on defense coming from the trade deadline and IR. The Raiders largely match their opponents' style of play but simply do not win games. Las Vegas does not have a commanding home-field advantage, either. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb are the two best players in the game, and that should shine through.

With the new additions via trade and with some guys coming off IR for the first time this season, the Cowboys may surprise the Raiders with how good they are defensively. I expect their defense to be a big reason why they cover this spread, and make things very interesting in the NFC playoff race down the stretch of the season.

I don't doubt that the Raiders will give Ashton Jeanty a lot of opportunities, but I do doubt how effective he'll be. Left tackle Kolton Miller is still sidelined, he was the Raiders BEST-graded run blocker. Guard Jackson Powers-Johnson, graded out as his second-best run-blocking lineman, is now on IR. Jeanty's averaged 3.8 yards per rush this season but in his past four games against some impressive run defenses, that number's been 3.2. And here comes the Cowboys' better defense: All-Pro Quinnen Williams helps the DL so much, and DeMarvion Overshown and Logan Wilson help the LBs. It's going to make their defense a lot better. Tack on a bad game script and this figures to be a long night for Jeanty.

George Pickens averages a whopping 3.41 yards per route run against Cover 3 -- a coverage the Raiders use at the NFL's second-highest rate. He's cleared this prop total in four straight games and seven of the last eight. Pickens will be matched up often with third-round rookie Darien Porter, who allows 12.3 yards per completion and has yet to force an incompletion, per PFF. This game has the highest total on the Week 11 slate, so I'm expecting another big game from Pickens.

The Cowboys are coming off a bye rested and ready to debut their two trade acquisitions, who come from two of the other worst defenses in the league. I think the Raiders offense can have similar success to what it did in the overtime loss to Jacksonville in this matchup as long as Geno Smith can avoid bad turnovers. The Raiders defense has been competitive in its last four games aside from the Chiefs blowout in what was an uncompetitive game from the jump, so the potential is there to hold the Cowboys under 30 points in this game. I only have the Cowboys three points higher in my ratings, which means I'd already lean toward Vegas at +3.5 on a neutral field.