I believe the answer is yes. As I mentioned for De'Von Achane, speed crushes the older, slower Washington defense. Jaylen Waddle should also have a field day Sunday morning in Madrid. Since Tyreek Hill's season-ending injury, Waddle has been targeted on 26% of his routes. He has a pristine matchup against the Washington secondary that gets destroyed week after week by WR1s. We are getting plus money for Waddle to find the endzone, and that feels like a gift.

Speed kills the Washington defense, as they are old and slow. As a Washington fan, I know this all too well. The Washington defense is a pristine matchup for running backs, giving up 5.5 yards per carry and a 55% success rate to running backs over the last five weeks. The speed of De'Von Achane makes me love his longest rush over prop. He has gone over this prop in six of his 10 games this season. Look for him to do it again Sunday morning.

If you join my Discord sub-room you get some really cool "inside baseball" stuff. I am certainly not ever going to speak for the model creator -- I feel like I am in the movie Labyrinth now with David Bowie -- but as far as I know, I have never seen a +money TD favorite that it has. By that I mean, the model has De'Von Achane at 1.2 TDs. I'm not saying it hasn't had another guy with a projection over a TD but I don't recall seeing it. This reminds me of the whole LaDainian Tomlinson/Shaun Alexander retro best-fantasy back in like the early 2000s. That was truly a running back Golden Corral bonanza. And I for sure still do the GC. #unlimitedtaters

The Dolphins indicated they have not raised a white flag by steamrolling Buffalo last Sunday. The Commanders have stumbled outright in five straight, and QB Jaylen Daniels fronts a long line of absent players with injuries. Head coach Dan Quinn decided this week to double as defensive play-caller. Good luck with that. Starting CBs Trey Amos and Marshon Lattimore are rehabbing, while DT Daron Payne is suspended. Quinn, a defensive guy, is unlikely to make chicken salad out of a beat-up unit that is shaky when fully staffed. Count on Miami playmakers Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane to bust some big gains and turn the scene in Madrid into a Fins fiesta.

The Dolphins continue to get ripped by opposing tight ends. Zach Ertz has earned a target share of at least 20 percent in four of his past five games. Washington is without Terry McLaurin and Treylon Burks. Over the past five games, Miami has given up 43 targets and 36 catches to opposing tight ends.

This is simply a case of a great player in a great situation. Achane's been awesome. The Commanders have allowed 5.6 yards per carry to RBs over their past five games with an 11.6% explosive rush rate allowed. They've been equally awful in other metrics like DVOA, EPA and rush success rate because of a slow-moving linebacker group that's struggled much of the year.

FanDuel. I’m back on Greg Dulcich this week. The Dolphins tight-end was on the field for 74% of passing snaps last week in what was a surprisingly lean passing day for the Dolphins. I’m expecting a similar route share for Dulcich against the Commanders, even if Julian Hill returns. The Commanders are 20th in DVOA against tight ends (per FTN), and have really struggled against the position over the last three weeks. I’d bet this up to over 24.5 yards.

The Dolphins have two dominant wins in the last three weeks, but they've allowed 27+points in seven of their other eight games. That should give the Washington offense a chance to catch its breath after facing the Chiefs, Seahawks and Lions the last three weeks. Washington has allowed 24+ points in eight of its last nine games and 400+ yards in four straight, so the conditions are there for this to be a back and forth game for two teams that figure to be aggressive on offense without much left to play for this year.

The Commanders have not been competitive in recent weeks, but they also just got done playing maybe the three best teams in football (Chiefs, Seahawks, Lions). Considering the lookahead here had Washington favored, I'm going to fade the massive move anywhere +3 is available. The Dolphins are coming off their Super Bowl with a dominant win over the Bills, and with the bye up next I don't think we'll see the same level of effort in this game, particularly on defense. As for the Washington defense, the installation of Dan Quinn as playcaller can only help. Miami should probably be favored, but fade them laying a field goal where possible.

Game at historic Santiago Bernabéu in Madrid, Spain on Sunday morning. Washington has completely and utterly quit on a five-game skid and dropping the past four by at least 21 points each. That is tied for the longest streak within a season by any team since 1970. And now the 'Ders will be without one of their best defenders in tackle Daron Payne as he was suspended one game after punching Lions receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown on Sunday. Boy did Dan Quinn lose this team fast, although I'm sure 90% of this is just the Jayden Daniels injury shell-shock. Miami showed some fight Sunday with a shock upset of Buffalo. It is the "home" team here if it matters.

The Commanders have lost five straight, the last four all coming by at least 21 points. Washington gave up 8.0 yards per play in Sunday's 44-22 home loss to Detroit. While Miami has a ton of flaws, the Dolphins are getting great performances from De'Von Achane (5.5 ypc, 9 total TDs) and Jaylen Waddle. It's also clear this team is playing hard for Mike McDaniel. Miami is 3-7 with three heartbreaking losses on its resume. Look for the Dolphins to finally string together two wins in a row.