The Chiefs losing at the Bills two weeks ago is allowing us to get Kansas City at a bit of a discount. Not only is this the better team with a far better offense and a defense that matches up, Andy Reid is nails coming off the bye, and Denver is missing JK Dobbins. The Broncos have averaged 14 points over their last two games and have lost three straight at home to KC. The Chiefs have covered every game they've won outright this season.

This is truly a shock number to me; completely a helmet/public number. If Patrick Mahomes and Mr. Taylor Swift played for the Colts and not the mega-popular Chiefs, this is not remotely +4.5. And they may well cover but I'm sure jumping now that we add the hook for a possible win on 27-23 or the like. Although I doubt that many points are scored. But that's even better for us; lower scoring, more likely to cover this.

Never mind losing 17 of the last 19 to the Chiefs...Denver thinks it has KC's number. Last year, the Chiefs needed to block a 35-yard FG try by Will Lutz on the last play to save a 16-14 win at Arrowhead before getting blanked 38-0 in the finale at Mile High (albeit with Patrick Mahomes sitting out). In Denver's last two games vs. Mahomes, it has allowed just 23 points as Vance Joseph has been winning the chess match with Matt Nagy. Denver does have some key injuries (Patrick Surtain and JK Dobbin), but counters KC's bye (and Andy Reid's excellent career mark off a bye) with a mini-bye of its own after last Thursday vs. the Raiders. Play Broncos

Bummed to lay the hook along with the field goal, but most signs are trending for Kansas City. Coach Andy Reid is a master off the bye week, having gone 22-4 SU after a break. Denver will miss two mega-performers, CB Patrick Surtain and RB J.K. Dobbins, among three scratched starters. While Surtain is peerless in pass coverage, Dobbins' absence means a Broncos offense that has contributed minimally to recent wins will be further impaired. For K.C., WR Xavier Worthy practiced Friday, suggesting he will suit up. The Chiefs don't need a pile of points here, and QB Patrick Mahomes should deliver enough with Worthy at his disposable. The other idled Broco by injury? LB Alex Singleton, merely the unit's leading tackler.

Evan Engram is coming off two very disappointing performances after it was starting to look like he was carving out a role in Denver’s passing attack. Despite totaling just 12 total receiving yards in his last two outings, I’m encouraged and even bullish on his role and usage. Engram posted a season high 77% route participation last week and prior to that posted a season best 66% in Week 9. Engram combines that with a healthy 20% TPRR and there is still a lot of meat on the bone and considering this game is likely to feature negative gamescript and additional passing volume, this all points to better days ahead for Engram.

The Chiefs are coming off a bye with the taste of a loss to the Bills in their mouths, and I expect a focused performance on both sides of the ball. That's bad news for a Denver offense that has looked terrible for the majority of the last five weeks, managing less than 275 yards against the Jets, Texans and Raiders while getting shut out by the Giants for three quarters. The Chiefs have only allowed three of their nine opponents to top 20 points, including holding Philly to 20 and Detroit to 17. I expect them to dictate how this game goes, and it'll be up to Denver's defense to keep them in it for 60 minutes.

This is an all-in spot for the Chiefs, who are coming off their bye following a loss that dropped them to 5-4. Bo Nix continues to play poorly against better defenses, and K.C.'s certainly qualifies. Look for Andy Reid to improve to 23-4 straight-up in games immediately following a regular-season bye, and for Patrick Mahomes to improve to 14-1 against the Broncos. I like the Chiefs' offense to find a lot of success against a Denver defense missing Patrick Surtain and Alex Singleton.

The Broncos are on a seven-game winning streak, but their offense has looked horrendous for the better part of four of the last five weeks. A negative-2 yard FG drive was what broke a 7-7 tie at home against a bad Raiders defense on short rest after a long OT game, a spot where Denver should've racked up points. There's no confidence in Bo Nix to go downfield, and I don't know how they score points against a Chiefs team that has had to sit with a loss to Buffalo for two weeks. Andy Reid knows he has to have this game to get back in the divisional race, and I wouldn't be surprised if this turned into an easy win if Nix doesn't progress.