The Packers may not be a great team, but they are certainly better than a touchdown over a Giants side without Jaxson Dart. While Jameis Winston obviously has plenty of NFL experience, there’s a reason he’s the No. 3 QB for New York. What the G-Men will miss most is Dart’s legs, which have filled in major offensive holes and made a ton of out of broken plans. Green Bay's loss to Carolina was more concerning than its primetime defeat to Philadelphia, and the lack of offensive weapons is a problem, but this should not be close. The Packers are 15-8 ATS after a loss under Matt LaFleur.

We cashed this prop last week, and I see no reason not to run it back. The Packers are desperate to break out on offense after doing almost nothing against the Panthers and Eagles. I expect them to look for explosive plays to Watson, who is Green Bay’s best deep threat. Watson is over this line in all three games he’s played since returning from injury, and logged a 25+ yard grab in each. The Giants play a ton of man coverage, which gives a WR who can stretch the field like Watson a perfect matchup.

NFL fans are quietly delighted that we’ll get to witness the Jameis Winston experience this week, but I’m not sure it will go very well. Giants new head coach Mike Kafka will be up against a Packers team looking to rebound, after laying an egg in Primetime against the Eagles. Their defense played excellent, but the offense just couldn’t convert after crossing midfield. Now Green Bay see the volatile passer Winston, who will have to navigate their stingy secondary allowing the fewest yards per pass attempt (5.9). The Giants also have one of the worst red zone defenses in the league, and haven’t been able to stop the run. Packers HC Matt Lafleur is 15-8 ATS following a loss. Green Bay bounce back spot.

This wouldn't be the first time that a team has made a brief rally in the debut game for an interim coach, in the G-Men's case OC Mike Kafka, promoted earlier in the week when Brian Daboll walked the plank after the loss to the Bears. Second, with Jaxson Dart out, Jameis Winston gets his first start of the year at QB and will surely be looking to get the ball downfield, looking an improvement on Russell Wilson. As for Green Bay, it hasn't convinced lately, nor has QB Jordan Love, with 0 TD passes the past two weeks as the Pack scored only 10 pg in home losses to the Panthers and Eagles. Play Giants

Caesar’s. Christian Watson hasn’t been healthy much, but when he is, he’s a key weapon for Jordan Love. Watson thrives against man coverage, which the Giants run at the league’s highest rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Watson has seen his target share and yards per route run skyrocket against man. The Giants also get torched on the outside, allowing the sixth most receiving yards per game to pass catchers out wide. Watson overall is over this line in all three games this season, and Matthews Golden’s possible presence doesn’t really sway me (he runs more in the slot). I’d bet this up to 42.5 yards - and given the variability of a deep threat, a scaled ladder bet might also make sense.

The Packers, mired in a slump, were dealt potentially uplifting news Wednesday. The Giants intend to start Jameis Winston at QB. Not that the veteran might be worse than his fellow vet, the fading Russell Wilson. But he has not taken a snap this season, and his career record as a starter is 36-51. Green Bay cannot lean on its stuck-in-neutral offense for a cover, but the fifth-ranked defense going against a rusty QB (and an interim coach) should suffice.

Jaxson Dart has been a breath of fresh air for the Giants offense, but he seems unlikely to play after suffering another concussion on Sunday. Perhaps interim coach Mike Kafka has some tricks up his sleeve, but it's hard to see this offense having success with backups playing key roles at the skill positions, even if the team goes with Jameis Winston over Russell Wilson. The Packers defense has had two great games in a row, including holding the Eagles to 10 points on Monday, and they've allowed more than 300 yards twice all year. The Giants were held under 10 points twice in Wilson's three starts, and while I'd prefer to have him in there for this prop, I think Winston struggles as well.